"Time is more important than price; when time is up price will reverse."
W.D.Gann
UPDATE
The HUI topped in minor wave (1) in May 2006. The HUI made a low and bottomed five weeks later in June 2006. All activity since June 2006 has been accumulation. The accumulation has been so intense that wave [c] of minor wave (2) did not make a new low. From the 274.72 low the HUI has completed a small 5 wave move up and a 3 wave correction. The (c) wave may have a few more points to decline before it officially terminates. The HUI is just about ready to begin the next move up to Delta long term # 2 high due in March of 2007. Delta long term # [1] was scheduled to be a high. An in between point was made at I.P. and Delta long term # [1] inverted to a low. Only numbers 1 and 2 can or ever do invert. A new high will be the signal for the fireworks of the third of a third wave to begin.
HUI WEEKLY
Gold made a high in May 2006 and bottomed 5 weeks later in June 2006. It has performed in a manner similar to the HUI. The ( c ) leg did not go lower than the ( a) leg. Gold also had a small 5 wave move up and a three wave correction. The recent small three wave correction had an (a ) leg equal to the length of the (c ) leg. This should have completed gold's small correction of the small 5 five wave move up. The long term Delta # 5 low arrived early but within the 100% range for arrival. Gold is now headed for Delta long term # [1] high due in October 2007. The biggest moves tend to occur on either side of # 1.
It appears to me that the reason the ( c ) leg at $563.50 in 2006 could not go lower than the ( a ) leg which arrived in June 2006 at $561.50 is because long term # ( 5 ) low arrived in June. This is evidence that the bottom was truly made in June 2006 at a low of $561.50. If the ( c ) leg had been lower than the ( a ) leg , the low for that correction would have arrived at that point. This is some of the evidence that I use to assume that the activity since the June low was accumulation. The Delta Long term turning points can be used in many ways and not just for timing. The long term Delta turning points can be very informative. The early arrival of Delta long term # 5 low is very bullish.
GOLD WEEKLY
Gold has broken out above its rising channel. It returned to the breakout area and tested that area as it completed a three wave correction. It has once again started up and will soon begin the dynamic action inherent in the third of a third wave. The action and movement will become obvious when a new high is made. At that point gold will attract world wide attention and the fireworks will be obvious. The new high will signal the beginning of the fireworks.
GOLD MONTHLY
Silver's pattern ever since its bull market started is not as clearly defined as the pattern for gold and the HUI. However, silver is currently making a low at intermediate # 1 and medium # 9. Long term # 5 low arrived at the June low of $9.60. You can see this on the monthly chart.
SILVER DAILY
SILVER MONTHLY
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Stay well,
Ron Rosen
Disclaimer: The contents of this letter represent the opinions of Ronald L. Rosen. Nothing contained herein is intended as investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions, and you should not rely on it as such. Ronald L. Rosen is not a registered investment advisor Information and analysis above are derived from sources and using methods believed to be reliable, but Ronald L. Rosen cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of your reliance on this analysis and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities. Do your own due diligence regarding personal investment decisions.
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