Editor's Note: Johannesburg Gold Guru Nick Goodwin has made some phenomenal gold calls in recent years. Moreover, just a few weeks ago he forecasted a fall in the Johannesburg All Gold Index to the 950 level… and indeed his prediction was the markets's command - as it declined to 940 one intra-day last week,but closed at 955. The second part of his forecast called for a rebound to an eventual peak of over 2000 --- equivalent to a 100% gain from current levels. The following interview is Gold Guru Goodwin's first public comment since his last great call.

AH: Well, we now cross to our Gold Guru, Nick Goodwin. Nick, you called it right. I actually put your record to the test a little while ago, had a look at exactly all the calls that you'd made this year, wrote an article for the column I have every two weeks in Business Day, and it came out there. You called it right this time as well, down from 1050 - the index down to 950. Now the index has perked up a little. Time to buy again?

NICK GOODWIN: I think last Thursday, at the close, I got a phase three buy-signal. We've had two so far. The first one was in March, when the index was at 680, and then we got a sell at 1050. It was a full 54% improvement. The second phase was in August, when it hit 820. I think I was here as well. And I got sell at 1300. That was a 60% improvement - so those two were 114% - and then we were waiting for it to come down. I first spoke about 1050 and later on at 950, and it actually got down to below 950 last week and I thought that maybe 900 were achievable, but it suddenly turned around. So on Friday morning I had this third buy-signal and the index on Thursday was 967; so we're into phase three now. I think this run could take us to the 1400/1500 area. I can't time it, as I've explained to you in the past, but basically, it's a very good area to buy into and we must just stay with it until we get another short term sell.

AH: So we can go out tomorrow and buy some more gold shares?

NICK GOODWIN: Yes, I would say so.

AH: Which ones in particular?

NICK GOODWIN: I just want to say something about the gold price. The gold price was on a downtrend since 1996, from $400 to a 278 level, but recently, the trend has turned around. I've got a system, which works out the trend in the gold price, and the trend has turned around. This trend generally lasts for about two years, so I think we can see a rise in trend. I can't say what rate it will be, but it is certainly upwards, so that's also very positive for the gold market. I think we've got a rising trend, and don't ask me why the gold price is going up, because I'll tell you after the event. Just as far as a portfolio goes, I think this is important for investors - the current portfolio that I would go for would be the following - Anglo Gold 20%, Gold Fields 40%.

AH: Now that's interesting - you in the past have called both Anglo and Gold Fields 30% each. Why the change?

NICK GOODWIN: I think Anglo Gold doesn't have as much to benefit from in the future run as Gold Fields. Gold Fields Mines are still much more marginal, and there's also a lot more improvements that can come in Gold Fields Mines. Anglo Gold has basically had a lot of improvements already, so I don't see much greater improvements to come through there, so I think that Anglo Gold shares could lag Gold Fields a bit. Those are still the majority holdings there, which are 60% of the total, and then 10% to each of the following: Randfontein, JCI Gold, Durban Deep and Harmony. And then I think for the speculative people, people always ask me, why don't I talk about CalGold. Well, it's a very good share. They can buy CalGold. The Gold Fields Calls I think, ought to buy now again, they're 120 cents, and Randfontein Options.

AH: The Gold Fields Calls Warrants?

NICK GOODWIN: Yes that's right, the Gold Fields Calls Warrants. Those are a buy, and Randfontein Options, so I think for the speculatively orientated people or the ones that want lower priced shares, CalGold, Randfontein Options and Gold Fields Calls. And then basically you just need to ride with this portfolio until it perhaps becomes overpriced. It might be towards the end of this year, or early next year that we'll get that situation.

AH: Well that's our Gold Guru, Nick Goodwin. He's given you as specific advice as you could ask for. Just to go through them again, and Nick, please correct me if I've made any mistakes here - Anglo Gold 20% - so for every R10,000 you're going to put in, you put in R2,000 into Anglo Gold - R4,000 into Gold Fields, R1,000 each into Randfontein, JCI, Durban Deep, and Harmony. That's it from Nick Goodwin.

Alec Hogg
Johannesburg Writer and Broadcaster
Reprint from RSA MoneyWeb
http://www.moneyweb.co.za