Y2K is a scientific phenomenon that is subject to the laws of physics, especially the second law of thermodynamics called Entropy. Entropy, or the universal tendency towards disorder, is also sometimes grouped under the general title of "chaos theory." As regards Y2K, entropy offers some sobering insights beyond its normal meaning of heat loss and energy dissipation. Personally, I like to think of entropy as the teenage room syndrome. This syndrome simply states that any teenager's, or adult's, room will soon become a pig sty unless massive amounts of energy are expended in keeping it clean. If you only clean it once, within a short time (hours, days, nanoseconds?) the fall from the clean state will be noticeable quickly. This is one reason I find the theory of evolution so ridiculous. Any scientific theory that states things advance from the simple to the complex by themselves, without massive outside intervention and energy expenditure, is scientific stupidity. Evolution reverses entropy and then offers no explanation. It's as if a scientific panel held a news conference and then pronounced that the universal law of gravity didn't apply for a three block area in Chicago. Although I'll admit there may be a new life form being created in your refrigerator, if you don't clean it often enough.
Likewise, Y2K is really about advanced computer systems and the energy it takes to maintain them. The core of Y2K is networks-not VCR players, Personal Computers; whether a particular ATM machine works, although the entire ATM banking system is one network requiring constant upkeep. This simple fact seems to be lost on the elite with their Y2K disinformation campaign. It's the system, stupid. It's the total system-all of it. Y2K is about the free flow of information through out the world's financial and communication systems. Y2K is about the free flow of power through a national electrical grid. It's about the total system. It's about whether the total system is compliant and can communicate with itself, power itself and make economic transactions with itself.
Just as the blood must flow thorough our bodies circulation system, capillaries, veins and arteries, so Y2K threatens our global and national information circulation system. Y2K is the computer version of a massive stroke and not the slow process of arteries hardening. Personally, I think 1-1-2000 will not be a massive stroke, but the beginning of a series of mini strokes that threaten to clog this global information flow. Or maybe the overseas infrastructure will collapse with one big boom. This is certainly a possibility in places like Russia, China, India, South America and the Mid-East. Just don't ask Kossi the klown because the corrupt elite isn't saying. 40 plus days to go and it's still the 72 hour crap. You can certainly disagree with me. Just show me the information saying my reasoning is wrong. Show me the information that says the global computer network system isn't subject to the law of entropy. Show me!
The second scientific theory relevant to Y2K is synergy. Many things concern me about Y2K, but only one really scares me-two really, the others being a nuclear meltdown, a.k.a. Chernobyl or a chemical accident a.k.a. Bhopal, India. The one thing about Y2K that has always given me pause is synergy. Synergy is simply a scientific law that states the sum of the total is greater than the sum of the parts. In other words, 2 plus 2 does not equal 4, but equals 5. Which means that people looking at Y2K are not taking into account the totality of system failure. In other words, say the global ATM system goes down and causes a synergistic effect beyond simply people not being able to get $40 out of an ATM. The synergistic effect would be the people conclude the system has failed and start a bank run. You see? You wouldn't have a clue as to the nature and intensity of the synergistic effect until the original effect happened and you were suddenly faced with, in this case, a bank run. Now, if you have believed Kossi the klown you wouldn't be prepared for the original minor Y2K effect, much less the synergistic effect. After all, a tidal wave is only one or two inches high until it reaches the shore line. At that point, it is compressed and becomes ten, twenty or thirty feet high. I'm not saying Y2K is like that, because I don't know. One of the reasons I don't know is that Kossi the klown is conducting a massive, highly effective disinformation campaign. I just don't plan to be on the beach when the Y2k wave hits.
The third area of Y2K concern is what I call structural flaw for want of a better term. This isn't scientific, but refers more to the cultural and political aspects of Y2K, a particular interest of mine. It's all about dams I think. Several years ago I saw on Television one of those Yugoslavian World War Two movies where the allied commandos were parachuted in to blow up a big dam. This particular movie starred the fine English actors Edward Fox and Robert Shaw if my memory serves me right. The Fox character was an eccentric demolition expert who was led by a British officer played by Shaw. The movie climaxed, after a whole series of exciting adventures of getting to the dam, with Fox and Shaw penetrating the dam, planting the explosives and then escaping down river from the Nazis. The scene is set as Fox and Shaw sit on the riverbank and wait for the explosion. Shaw waits expectantly while Fox puffs on his pipe. There is a distant boom and a small hole appears in the dam wall. Sirens sound. Nazis scurry around checking everything. All appears well. The danger has passed.
The British Captain Shaw stares in amazement as the dam is still standing. He screams as Fox. He grabs Fox by the neck and threatens to strangle him. It's really a great scene acted out by these two great English actors. Fox gathers his wits and calmly replies, "Well, you didn't think I had enough explosive to do it did you? I'm using the weight of the water to destroy the dam."
As the enraged Shaw watches, the hole in the dam with the water spurting out begins to get larger and then the whole damn begins to collapse. Eventually, the dam is destroyed and the Nazi division driving up the valley to kill them is drowned. The Y2K point being that 1-1-2000 is likely to be the original explosion in the dam. The question is will that be enough to bring down the system later on?
The answer to that question is two part. The first is technical and the second is human. The first refers to information resources and computer code and whether the computer networks will actually work. The answer to that is beyond my expertise since I'm not a computer expert, although I have my own opinion based on nearly 18 months of research. Think upon me as an inspired amateur. Based upon the fact that there is an organized, officially sanctioned government, corporate and media disinformation campaign; based upon the fact that every single imposed deadline has failed, i.e. December 31st 1998, with a year for testing, March 30, 1999, June 30, 1999 and September 30, 1999, a reasonable person would conclude that the final Y2K deadline of 1-1-2000 will be missed also. The only real issue is deciding what this final failure means to you personally and tothe computer networks controlling our global infrastructure.
Believe what you want. Just don't accuse me of trying to sell you something and ignore what I say. If you think I'm wrong, or crazy or just bored: fine. Just investigate the facts yourself, in the few days remaining and come to your own conclusions. Or do nothing and trust Kossi the klown.
The second aspect refers to the condition of the dam prior to the explosion. If you think of the dam as the social infrastructure of the world and in particular the United States, then you would be worried about whether the contractor used high quality concrete to build the dam. You would be worried about whether the technicians were competent and whether the management was awake. The management, President Clinton, Kossi the klown et al don't inspire much confidence. Lest you accuse me of picking on President Clinton, let me say a word about the Republican losers. If, as I am, you are appalled at President Clintons sexual and moral lapses, then you can only react with the deepest contempt for the Republicans. Newt Gingrich's divorce now shows that he has also had an adulterous affair his whole term of House Speaker. While President Clinton was over in the Oral office with Monica, Speaker Newt was cheating on his wife-with both men giving family values speeches the whole time. Mark my words: This hypocrisy in our political leaders will have Y2K implications. Once the explosion in our social infrastructure dam happens, everyone will look to our integrity challenged leaders for leadership. Finding none, they will act accordingly. Or as the Old Testament puts it so eloquently in the final sentence of the Book of Judges: "In those days Israel had no King; everyone did as he saw fit."
The United States will have a political, corporate and media leadership that is held in contempt by the populace. This leadership will expect to be obeyed and taken seriously in a chaotic situation that they have repeatedly said never could happen. Assuming the social system holds together, there will be severe political consequences for incumbents in November 2000. If the social system doesn't hold together, then there will be severe consequences for everybody.
1-1-2000 will be the first explosion in the dam. I honestly don't know what will happen after that either technically or socially. It just seems smart to me to not be fishing below the dam.
WHO WILLS CAN-WHO TRIES DOES-WHO LOVES LIVES
| Doug McIntosh 20 November 1999 |