Holding on to Our Buy Gold Signal As MAs Hold As Support

NEW YORK (Dec 27) This has been a strange year for Gold, as it surges initially as a safe haven, only to lose that status and turn bearish by March. Prices are down by $250 an ounce since March highs, after central bankers stepped up their aggressive rate hikes, although it is closing the year mostly unchanged.

XAU dived to $1,615 by early November, but made a strong reversal after sellers failed to push the price below that zone and Gold has been bullish since then. The 50 SMA (yellow) was acting as resistance at the top on the daily chart below, while the 20 SMA (gray) turned into support after the trend reversed higher, which means that the pace has been quite strong.

Gold Daily Chart – The 200 SMA Has Turned Into Support Now

Although the USD weakness has helped as well during this strong bullish trend, as the Buck turned quite bearish after the FED gave signals about slowing down with rate hikes, which they already did after the 50 bps (basis points) hike early in December.

We have shifted to bullish in Gold, since the fundamentals are pointing up as well. Looking forward to 2023, the interplay between central banks continuing to intervene and economic performance/recession will be key in determining the outlook for risk sentiment, therefore Gold’s performance in 2023 will also depend on this.

The current economic outlook points to a weakening global economy and a recession in developed economies such as the EU, UK, and US. Inflation is falling, yet it remains elevated so the end of rate hikes is not clear yet. This sort of environment implies a stable but positive performance for gold. We opened a long term buy signal last week after the price fell below $1,800 and now the situation is looking promising for buyers as the 200 SMA (purple) held as support on the daily chart.

FXLeaders