Captain Ewave Golden Wave Counts Update

Gold was down in the overnight session, hitting a low of 1272.50, at the time that this post started being written. We are likely just correcting the rally from 1252.60 to 1285.30.  We expected gold to recover to the $1275 area today, and it has!

It is a bit too early to start subdividing the impulsive wave structure that we are anticipating within this wave *iii* of ^iii^ rally. As we said in our last End of Day Post our targets for the end of wave *iii* are:

*iii* = *i* = 1334.50;

*iii* =1.618*i* = 1385.40… preferred by the Captain.

*iii* = 2.618*i* = 1467.80.  

No change to current 7 long COMEX 100 oz contract positions, risking to $1225!

Crude Oil:

As we expected and projected, crude was sharply higher in the overnight session, hitting at high of 50.06, and is holding the bulk of those gains.  We are expecting wave (c) to be impulsive and consist of a five wave structure. On the intraday chart it appears that we can see this type of structure, starting from the $43.59 low, looking like:

-i- = 45.20;

-ii- = 44.33;

-iii- = 50.06;

-iv-  is now

-v- to go.

We want to point that the wave (c) could still subdivide a bit further.

There is another option for wave iv and it could all be a triangle, which would look like:

-a- = 51.20;

-b- = 43.59;

-c- is now, but this -c- wave cannot be impulsive, so we are holding this option as out alternative. If -c- rally now above the 51.20 high, then this option can be eliminated. Note our potential targets for wave (c ):

(c) = 51.20, the wave (a) high;

(c) = 1.618(a) = 54.92…preferred by the Captain.

(c) = 2.618(a) = 61.92.

 This statement remains valid also: “We are also thinking that wave iv in crude will likely become more complex and consist of a number of (a), (b), (c) patterns(in complex patterns we can have up to 3 such patterns, separated by (x) waves), that could go on for a number of months. Let is focus on the first (a),(b),(c) for now.”

We are long 6 crude oil 1000 bbl contract positions…with $44 put options.                                                                                    

S&P500:

The S&P500 did nothing in the overnight session, and rallied a bit higher early in the day, after disappointing manufacturing numbers, perhaps on buying from the Fed, for propaganda purposes. 

It looks like all of the recent action was associated with our wave *b* of ^ii^ correction. Our thinking is that all of wave *b* ended at 1993.38, as shown on the attached 10 Min S&P chart.  To view it, please click here now:

If this analysis is correct we should now see one more push in wave *c* to complete all of wave ^ii^. It was kind of interesting how the S&P did not rally with the rally in crude!

We cannot rule out the possibility that all of wave ^ii^ ended at 2023.32, as a wave *c* failure. The only reason this is not our preferred case is due to the failure thing.

The S&P500 down 100/150 later week would not be a surprise to the Captain.

Recommendation:

Short 2 S&P500 at 2025, Short 4 S&P500 at 1987. Stops will be at 2063 for a short time, if any of this happens.

We are short 4 S&P500 at the market, risking to 2063.

USDX:

The USDX was stable in the overnight session, but we can now make a case for a completed wave .iv. triangle as follows:

*a* = 93.96;

*b* = 95.26;

*c* = 94.67;

*d* = 95.02;

*e* = 94.80, if complete, to complete all of wave .iv….

The triangle was our alternate scenario, but based on this formation we have now raised it to our preferred.  If this analysis is correct, then wave .v. should be a thrust higher to at least the wave .iii. high of 95.58…. We have a maximum upside target of 97.58, but this market is overstretched; we are not sure we are going to get there!

We believe this pending top in the USDX will not be seen again for many, many years.

We provided a “Special Weekend Post” on the Euro and that appears to be hitting a major low. Also we have noticed corrective patterns in both the $AUD and $CAD coming to an end. 

Subscribers should watch for a shorting Intraday Post, today or tomorrow, on this market!

Nat Gas:

We have updated our EWave Analysis for this market as you can see in the attached charts. We are still working on the assumption that this drop is all of wave ii of C, but we must admit it is getting rather deep for our liking.  Nevertheless, we are looking for a large rally in NG.  Wave (c) simply continues to subdivide lower. Our alternate count is that this market is heading back to the 1.90 low.

Our plan is to wait for a break of the red down trend line that is shown on the daily chart, before we will recommend going long this market, despite the incredible upside potential!

HUI/GDX:

It appears that wave -iv- is over, just like we thought, at $21.08. We expect to rally in a five wave impulsive sequence to complete all of wave .i. of -v-. A run to 23.22, would a logically place for wave .i. to end!

We are long substantial GDX positions. 

Stops at…. $19.87!                                                                                                     

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Special Report For Gold-Eagle Ewave Riders!  Send me an Email to [email protected] and I’ll send you my free “Captain Ewave 100 Bagger! Report.  I will include key Ewave analysis for Claude Resources (which the Captain owns in size), Suncor, and the ultra-important HUI Ewave charts!

Captain Ewave & Crew!

Website: www.captainewave.com

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