Gold Forecast: Gold's Current Cyclical Picture

From the comments made in past months, Gold's larger rally phase was projected to hold up into February of this year, plus or minus, though with the recent 'mini-panic' drop well overdue in the Gold market.

Gold's 10-Day Cycle

For the short-term picture, our smallest-tracked wave in the Gold market is the 10-day cycle, which is shown on the chart below:

From my 1/25/26 article: "our 10-day wave is now 4 trading days along, with the average rallies having taken some 4-7 trading days before topping. With that, the next short-term peak - and correction - should come from this cycle, which is next projected to trough into early-February, plus or minus."

As mentioned above, back on January 25th our 10-day wave was 4 days along, with the average rallies having taken 4-7 trading days before topping. From that article, price went on to spike another 600 points in the following days, running all the way up to an eventual January 29th top of 5626.80.

In our Gold Wave Trader report, we identified the 5120.00 figure (April, 2026 contract) as the downside 'reversal point' for this 10-day cycle, which was broken below on January 30th. From there, the metal quickly fell nearly 700 points through that reversal number, before eventually bottoming this 10-day wave at the 4423.20 figure.

On February 3rd, the upward phase of our 10-day cycle was labeled back in force, targeting a rally to the 5100-5300 level, the lower-end of which was met with the action that followed. Having said that, simply due to normal time statistics with this wave, there is decent potential for the recent weakness (4670) into early-Friday to give way to another try at strength with this cycle.

With the above said and noted, a push above the 4999.00 figure (April, 2026 contract) into Monday of this week - if seen - should favor another move back to or above last Wednesday's 5113 swing top in the very near-term, then to be on the lookout for the next 10-day peak to form.

Gold's 34-Day Cycle

Above the 10-day wave, there is the 34-day cycle. Here again is that 34-day cycle in the Gold market:

From my 1/25/26 article: "we are now above the extrapolated upper 34 and 72-day cycle channels, which is a short-term 'blow-off' condition. As per the decline seen into late-December of last year, short-term 'blow-off' moves are often followed by sharp price corrections - even if they end up as countertrend moves. The 34-day moving average could again act as a magnet to that decline."

As mentioned back in late-January, Gold was in a short-term 'blow-off' condition, which is characterized by a push well outside of both the upper 34 and 72-day cycle channels. These moves - once complete - are normally followed by sharp corrections. Here, the 34 and 72-day moving averages were magnets to that decline, with the downward phase of each cycle now deemed to be in force.

With the above said and noted, the downward phase of our 34-day wave is in force, though it could well have bottomed with the 'mini-panic' low of 4423.20 (April, 2026 contract); it is still too early to call. Even if it did bottom out at that figure, the assumption is that we could see a re-test of that low in the coming weeks, with best-odds coming with the next downward phase of our smaller 10-day cycle. 

Gold's 72-Day Cycle

Above the 34-day wave, there is the 72-day cycle for Gold - which is shown below:

Stepping back further, our 72-day wave (chart, above) may have also formed a low at the 4423 figure, though its next upward phase can't yet be confirmed. In terms of price, the decline into that bottom saw a spike down to the 72-day moving average, though the 72-day 'oversold' indicator did not drop back below its lower reference line - something we might expect to see.

In terms of patterns, as long as the late-October low (3975) is not taken out on the current correction phase of this 72-day cycle, wave, Gold can could/should make a push back above the 5626.80 swing top into April - May. From there, we will need to be on the lookout for the next larger-degree peak to form, coming from the bigger four-year wave.

The Four-Year Cycle

As mentioned in recent years, the upward phase of our larger four-year cycle in Gold was expected to remain intact into February of this year - or later - then to peak the market for a bigger percentage correction into later this year.

Here is that four-year cycle in Gold:

With technicals, there will normally be some type of divergence in monthly momentum at a larger-degree peak, such as with this four-year cycle. This was not actually seen at the 5626.80 swing top in late-January, and with that the assumption is that a higher high is still out there for this wave, at least until something else were to suggest otherwise.

It is too soon to confirm any downside 'reversal point' for this four-year cycle, though one should ideally develop going forward, depending on the action.

In terms of price, there were several targets with this four-year cycle over the past year or two, with each of these targets obviously met with the action that followed. With that, the next correction of larger significance should come from this four-year wave, though from what price level this will start from remains to be seen.

As mentioned earlier, a countertrend correction is seen with our 72-day cycle - if seen - can see Gold can turning back to make a higher high on the next upward phase of this wave, most likely playing out into later this Spring. If that higher high is seen - and is accompanied by some larger technical contraction - then it would be odds-on to peak the bigger four-year wave, for its next correction.

In terms of price, the next downward phase of the four-year cycle in Gold is likely to be something in the range of 25-30%. Going further, since a cycle has a good tendency to revert back to a moving average of the same length, the 48-month moving average could be a magnet to the coming correction phase of this wave - a move which is anticipated to end up as countertrend, against the prior four-year low. More on all as we continue to move forward.

Jim Curry
The Gold Wave Trader

Market Turns Advisory
http://goldwavetrader.com/
http://cyclewave.homestead.com/

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