Latest Gold Price Forecast & Predictions

With the recent action in the Gold market, we will take a look at the current cyclical position in the metal, as well as a quick look at the U.S. stock market.

Gold's 10-Day Cycle

For the very near-term, the downward phase of our smallest-tracked cycle - the 10-day wave - is currently deemed to be in force.  

Shown below is that 10-day cycle in Gold:

In terms of time, we are 9 trading days along on this 10-day cycle, which will put it into bottoming range into early this week. Once this wave troughs, a quick rally back to the 10-day moving average for Gold would be a normal minimum expectation. From there, another trough with this 10-day wave would be due around late-May to very early-June.

Gold's 34-Day Cycle...

Wednesday’s Producer Price Index came in at 1.4% versus the 0.5% estimate, supporting the case for more inflation ahead.

The dollar is bouncing, and I see the potential for a rounded bottom that could lead to a bit more upside, potentially creating a headwind for precious metals.

Metals and miners are taking a breather after a strong start to May. Continued downside follow-through next week, combined with rising Treasury yields, would suggest the bounce is over and prices are likely heading toward our projected mid-year lows. 

Our Gold Cycle Indicator is at 148. The next buying opportunity is likely to emerge once we enter the minimum cycle bottoming phase.

US DOLLAR: The dollar is rallying, and I see the potential for a one-year rounded bottom formation. Major resistance remains near the 100.50 level, which could prove challenging to overcome. A pullback in metals and miners into a mid-year low likely requires medium-term dollar strength.

Gold’s powerful rally has paused – but not in isolation. As geopolitical tensions escalate and energy markets take center stage, the macro landscape is shifting in ways that temporarily sideline precious metals. The recent oil price surge, driven by conflict in the Middle East and structural stress in the global energy system, is now dictating market sentiment, liquidity flows, and inflation expectations. In this environment, gold finds itself caught between long-term structural strength and short-term tactical pressure – correcting after an overheated advance while competing with oil for leadership in an increasingly fragmented and unstable world.

1. Review – Gold Corrects While Oil Takes the Lead

After reaching a new all-time high of USD 5,602 on January 29, the gold price has now been in a corrective phase for over three months. So far, this phase has been characterized by two sharp downward waves, two recovery waves, and most recently another decline since mid-April.

With the lower high at USD 5,419 on March 2nd and the lower low at USD 4,099 on March 23rd, a clear downtrend has been established. Most recently, on April 17th, gold failed exactly at its 50-day moving average (USD 4,873) and has since entered a third downward wave, reaching USD 4,501 so far. Selling pressure initially increased noticeably over the course of the last week. Shortly before the Fed’s interest rate decision, however, gold found a bottom at USD 4,510 and has since been attempting a recovery but ultimately has failed to break out from the short-term downtrend. Gold needs a weekly close above USD 4,600 to improve the picture.