There are only a few more days left until the 59^th quadrennial presidential election take place, which means that President Trump and his Democratic counter candidate Joe Biden are in their final week of the electoral race. Globally, precious metals investors are uncertain on how to determine whether the election results will significantly impact precious metals prices and if the people’s choice will be a rewarding one for gold.

Nevertheless, major forthcoming market moves will occur, and gold will remain the ultimate winner, regardless of who wins the elections. In a year such as 2020, we can’t attribute market reactions only according to the candidate that wins the elections. Besides the President and the obvious elephant in the room in the form of COVID-19, many other fundamentals need to be considered for precious metals.

Namely, in my previous analyses, I’ve made quite a few comments on the current factors that support and determine the precious metals market outlook, and there’s little to add on top of that, as nothing significant happened so far this week. But, whatever happened, was in tune with what we’ve predicted earlier, and the current silence of gold actually provides us with several insights.

We are aware that gold sustains its momentum for the fourth day in a row – that is, at least based on what’s happening in today’s pre-market trading.

So, does that seems boring to you? Indeed, since everything remains evidently the same. How about informative? Well, it does tell us more than it meets the eye.

As I’ve discussed in one of the previous analyses, due to the looming presidential elections in the U.S, we’re living in ambiguous times. Because of that, gold should get a significant boost. After all, it’s a safe-haven metal. Or, at least it’s perceived as one.

Despite this theoretical tendency, gold is either unwilling to move higher, or the current prices are already the “boosted” ones. Nevertheless, both are bearish pieces of information as they indicate that once the post-election dust settles, gold is likely to lose its current boost. Perhaps the additional decline will be triggered due to the lack of uncertainty.

In the meantime, by being weak...

In August, our article Cycles Support A September Buying Opportunity reported the potential for an aggressive cycle decline into the next 6-month low. That collapse is underway and we could see a buying opportunity by late September or early October.

Gold Price Update

Though gold consolidated a bit longer in August than expected, our September/October Target box remains valid. Our updated forecast Gold Nearing Final Peak of Triangle Pattern foresaw last week’s peak and warned of the ensuing collapse.

As a reminder, gold prices tend to form a cycle low roughly every 6-months. Sometimes the cycles are cut short, as we saw with the coronavirus - other times, they extend. The March 6-month low arrived early due to the extreme nature of the decline, and the next low is rapidly approaching. 

Our Gold Cycle Indicator was designed to navigate the 6-month cycle. I will not expect a low until the value drops below 100 (currently 294) and enters minimum cycle bottoming. At a minimum, we believe gold will revisit $1800. 

When the GCI drops below 100, I will begin adding to our Gold Predict Educational Portfolio. I am considering adding silver miners and some energy. I believe the unprecedented gas and oil well shutdowns will create a supply issue next year; higher oil prices could spark the upcoming inflation. 

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information visit here.

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