Latest Gold Price Forecast & Predictions
Period | 2 Days | 3 Days | 1 Week | 2 Weeks | 1 Month |
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Change | -0.09% | -0.09% | +1.82% | +2.16% | +2.02% |
Gold Price Forecasts - Analyst Predictions
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Featured Gold Price Forecasts
After a prolonged decline, gold miners are showing signs of strength. The analysis below supports an immediate breakout and renewed uptrend in precious metals and miners. If all goes well, gold prices should work their way back to the $2000 level by August.
Gold investors need to have nerves of steel. Corrections in this space are trying events due to their duration and severity. The last 8-months were no exception. Investor sentiment reached downright despair in March, and that sealed the bottom. If you are still standing - congratulations!
Daily Gold Chart
Gold is confirming a double bottom breakout, and prices should begin to stairstep their way back towards the $2000 level, possibly by August. I continue to see deep value in gold miners and believe they will outperform metal prices moving forward.
Gold Monthly Chart
Below is the Monthly chart. Gold broke above the 6-year base and confirmed a new bull market in 2019. Prices have pulled back to the 20-month moving average (first test in a new bull market). The last time this setup occurred was in 2004.
I believe gold will reach $8500+ later this...
Gold continues to trade weakly. The precious metal is down $13 for the month of March, $180 thus far in 2021, and some $374 since the all-time high of $2,074 was recorded in the spot market in August of last year.
That said, what is in store for the second quarter of 2021 and beyond?
While we do not have a crystal ball, we can make a high-probability assessment for where gold may bottom based on a study of where large buyers have emerged during recent years.
Gold’s Recent History
To look for high-probability bottom zones for gold, let us study the price action from 2018 through present:
Above we can notice certain critical points:
- The correction which began in August 2020 at $2,074 per ounce has featured a steady series of lower-highs and lower-lows. This overlapping price action is corrective in nature.
- Importantly, gold’s peaks have been declining at a steeper slope than its lows. In other words, buyers are emerging at relatively higher intervals than the sellers. This is a bullish indication. We can see that this converging correction is thus taking the shape of a bottoming wedge (blue), which has an apex in June 2022.
- Gold has a primary rising trend of support (solid blue), which...
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Gold Price Forecast FAQ
How do you forecast the price of gold?
Predicting gold prices can be said to be both a science and an art. For example, analysis of gold supply and demand is scientific and completely objective whereas aspects of technical and sentiment analysis of the current gold market can be more of an art as it relies on the skills and perspective of the gold analyst.
Generally speaking, when the focus of the gold forecast is longer term then analysis of the fundamentals, ie scientific analysis, comes to the fore.
For shorter-term predictions of gold prices, the price of gold in the coming weeks and perhaps few months, technical analysis of past and current gold prices, market trends, as well as current market sentiment can be more actionable predictors. Here, the fundamentals can still play a role but generally serve more as background details.
What are the key factors for long term gold forecasts?
When forecasting what may happen to the price of gold longer term, there are many things to consider including economic trends, the impact of current and expected monetary policy, QE, debt monetization, and the aggregate impact on future currency valuation.
Does the price of gold go up when the stock market goes down?
The price of gold is often negatively correlated to the stock markets. When the markets go down, gold prices usually go up. However, this is not always true. Sometimes the price of gold and stocks both go up and down in unison. Fundamental factors play an important role and need to be carefully analyzed. Historically, however, the price of gold is not tied to the fluctuations of stock and bonds. This is one of the chief reasons when one should have gold in their portfolio – to protect the long-term value of your investments.
Does the value of the US dollar predict the price of gold?
As gold is traditionally quoted in US dollars, the price of gold is negatively correlated to the strength of the USD. The weaker the US dollar, the cheaper it is to purchase gold. Therefore, if economic factors predict a strengthening of the US dollar then this will tend to drop the price of gold, and vice-versa. According to the statistics (since 1973), the long-term correlation between the U.S. dollar index and the gold prices is -0.6 so this link is quite strong.
How do US interest rates impact future gold prices?
The level of US interest rates is an important driver of future gold prices. When investing in gold, the investor is faced with the opportunity cost of gold - a non-interest bearing asset. The higher the US interest rate for holding US dollars or investing in Treasuries, the higher the opportunity cost of holding gold. It is more likely, therefore, that a rally in the price of gold will be forecasted the lower the US benchmark interest rate.