Latest Gold Price Forecast & Predictions
Period | 2 Days | 3 Days | 1 Week | 2 Weeks | 1 Month |
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Change | -2.11% | -0.71% | -0.81% | -0.72% | +3.25% |
Gold Price Forecasts - Analyst Predictions
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The Fed likely has one or maybe two more rate hikes before they pause in the second quarter.
The US must raise the Debt ceiling before July to avoid a technical default.
Bank lending standards approach recessionary levels supporting widespread weakness.
Fed Update
Powell spoke last Friday, explaining how their actions may be viewed as unpopular over the coming months as they hold fast to keep rates higher for longer. He vowed to resist any political backlash.
I believe Powell understands that if he cuts rates too soon, consumer spending will rebound, and inflation will come roaring back. That is precisely what happened in the 1970s when Author Burns cut too quickly.
What could cause Powell to deviate from “higher for longer” and cut rates sooner? I think it would take another global crisis, core inflation dropping below 3.0% for several months, or unemployment soaring above 5.0%. I don’t see any of those happening in the first half of 2023.
Technical Debt Default
According to Secretary Yellen, the Treasury Department has begun using ...
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Gold Price Forecast FAQ
How do you forecast the price of gold?
Predicting gold prices can be said to be both a science and an art. For example, analysis of gold supply and demand is scientific and completely objective whereas aspects of technical and sentiment analysis of the current gold market can be more of an art as it relies on the skills and perspective of the gold analyst.
Generally speaking, when the focus of the gold forecast is longer term then analysis of the fundamentals, ie scientific analysis, comes to the fore.
For shorter-term predictions of gold prices, the price of gold in the coming weeks and perhaps few months, technical analysis of past and current gold prices, market trends, as well as current market sentiment can be more actionable predictors. Here, the fundamentals can still play a role but generally serve more as background details.
What are the key factors for long term gold forecasts?
When forecasting what may happen to the price of gold longer term, there are many things to consider including economic trends, the impact of current and expected monetary policy, QE, debt monetization, and the aggregate impact on future currency valuation.
Does the price of gold go up when the stock market goes down?
The price of gold is often negatively correlated to the stock markets. When the markets go down, gold prices usually go up. However, this is not always true. Sometimes the price of gold and stocks both go up and down in unison. Fundamental factors play an important role and need to be carefully analyzed. Historically, however, the price of gold is not tied to the fluctuations of stock and bonds. This is one of the chief reasons when one should have gold in their portfolio – to protect the long-term value of your investments.
Does the value of the US dollar predict the price of gold?
As gold is traditionally quoted in US dollars, the price of gold is negatively correlated to the strength of the USD. The weaker the US dollar, the cheaper it is to purchase gold. Therefore, if economic factors predict a strengthening of the US dollar then this will tend to drop the price of gold, and vice-versa. According to the statistics (since 1973), the long-term correlation between the U.S. dollar index and the gold prices is -0.6 so this link is quite strong.
How do US interest rates impact future gold prices?
The level of US interest rates is an important driver of future gold prices. When investing in gold, the investor is faced with the opportunity cost of gold - a non-interest bearing asset. The higher the US interest rate for holding US dollars or investing in Treasuries, the higher the opportunity cost of holding gold. It is more likely, therefore, that a rally in the price of gold will be forecasted the lower the US benchmark interest rate.