Latest Gold Price Forecast & Predictions
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Gold Price Forecasts - Analyst Predictions
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The gold miners have just broken out of a major five-year base. Significantly higher valuations lie in store over the next 6 – 18 months for most of the world’s gold miners. However, this move higher in the gold miners will not happen in a vacuum: gold itself will tag along for the ride, albeit in lesser percentage terms. For investors expecting a top in the gold market imminently – the charts suggest otherwise.
Gold Miners Break Out
First we turn to the GDX senior gold miners fund, from 2020 through present:
Note the major five-year resistance zone (black), which formed following the Coronavirus stimulus-induced peak from 2020. For five years, the senior gold miners consolidated in a wide range, continuously bumping up against the 40 – 46 resistance zone.
This resistance zone witnessed a breakout (red callout) just two weeks ago, following the Trump tariff-induced panic of early April. Note the decisive bullish weekly candlestick which formed in mid-April, clearing all resistance of the prior consolidation. That is as clear of a breakout as we could possibly ask for.
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Gold surged past $3,200 in April, as forecasted, and signs point to a significant top forming.
Our cycle analysis projected a peak between April 16 and April 23, with prices seemingly topping out on April 22 after hitting $3,500.
We now expect a sharp, multi-month decline of at least 20%—a move that could be swift and jarring, especially for those unprepared.
Gold Peaks After Stocks
A few weeks back, I noted that gold tends to rally into a recession, typically after the stock market has already topped. In 2022, for example, the stock market peaked on January 4, and gold climbed more than 15% before topping out in March. We're now seeing a similar pattern unfold: the S&P 500 peaked on February 19, 2025, and gold has since rallied over 17%, likely reaching its high on April 22.
Gold Deeply Overbought
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Gold surged above $3,300 as forecasted in what appears to be a blowoff top. The current cycle is projected to peak between April 16th and 23rd, suggesting prices could top any day.
Markets staged a dramatic short-covering rally on Wednesday after Trump announced a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs. The S&P surged 9.5%, posting its third-largest gain since 1940.
With the action seen in recent weeks, the U.S. stock market is declining into an expected Spring cycle bottom, with Gold now joining in the decline. Each of these markets appear to have further to run before troughing, though we are into the window for a key bottom...
Gold hit our $3,150 price target in the first few days of April, and it seems the cycle has peaked. Silver dropped significantly after a slight new high, and recession fears could trigger a sharp decline.
Gold broke through $3,100 following a short consolidation, and we’re likely entering the final leg of the rally into an April peak. Silver futures closed above $35.00, and we’re at the critical point in the trend where prices could accelerate rapidly towards $40.00...
As mentioned in a prior article, the last correction of significance was due to play out with our 72-day time cycle, which ended up confirming a very early low - doing so with the late-February tag of 2844.10 (April, 2025 contract). With that, this wave is now seen...
In December, we advised readers that our cycle work expected an impending bottom followed by "a run towards $3,000+ by March or April."
With the action seen in recent weeks, Gold is in a confirmed downtrend with our 72-day cycle, a move which is anticipated to end up as countertrend - though it looks to have further to run. Stepping back, the bigger picture view for Gold is projected to remain...
The gold price hit a new record high this week, rising up to $2,942 in the spot market on February 10. Gold is now up 11% for the new year, after rising over 27% in 2024. After such a run, with gold just below the key $3,000 per ounce level, one might wonder if the...
Gold Price Forecast FAQ
How do you forecast the price of gold?
Predicting gold prices can be said to be both a science and an art. For example, analysis of gold supply and demand is scientific and completely objective whereas aspects of technical and sentiment analysis of the current gold market can be more of an art as it relies on the skills and perspective of the gold analyst.
Generally speaking, when the focus of the gold forecast is longer term then analysis of the fundamentals, ie scientific analysis, comes to the fore.
For shorter-term predictions of gold prices, the price of gold in the coming weeks and perhaps few months, technical analysis of past and current gold prices, market trends, as well as current market sentiment can be more actionable predictors. Here, the fundamentals can still play a role but generally serve more as background details.
What are the key factors for long term gold forecasts?
When forecasting what may happen to the price of gold longer term, there are many things to consider including economic trends, the impact of current and expected monetary policy, QE, debt monetization, and the aggregate impact on future currency valuation.
Does the price of gold go up when the stock market goes down?
The price of gold is often negatively correlated to the stock markets. When the markets go down, gold prices usually go up. However, this is not always true. Sometimes the price of gold and stocks both go up and down in unison. Fundamental factors play an important role and need to be carefully analyzed. Historically, however, the price of gold is not tied to the fluctuations of stock and bonds. This is one of the chief reasons when one should have gold in their portfolio – to protect the long-term value of your investments.
Does the value of the US dollar predict the price of gold?
As gold is traditionally quoted in US dollars, the price of gold is negatively correlated to the strength of the USD. The weaker the US dollar, the cheaper it is to purchase gold. Therefore, if economic factors predict a strengthening of the US dollar then this will tend to drop the price of gold, and vice-versa. According to the statistics (since 1973), the long-term correlation between the U.S. dollar index and the gold prices is -0.6 so this link is quite strong.
How do US interest rates impact future gold prices?
The level of US interest rates is an important driver of future gold prices. When investing in gold, the investor is faced with the opportunity cost of gold - a non-interest bearing asset. The higher the US interest rate for holding US dollars or investing in Treasuries, the higher the opportunity cost of holding gold. It is more likely, therefore, that a rally in the price of gold will be forecasted the lower the US benchmark interest rate.