Latest Gold Price Forecast & Predictions
Gold Price Now:
USD
$1,941.29
-5.74
-0.29%
Recent Changes
| Period | 2 Days | 3 Days | 1 Week | 2 Weeks | 1 Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change | -0.35% | -0.35% | +0.06% | -1.09% | -3.75% |
Gold Price Forecasts - Analyst Predictions
Gold-Eagle has been analyzing gold markets and publishing gold price forecasts for over 23 years. Our staff and contributing analysts include world reknowned precious metal experts and market analysts. The gold price forecast data below represents the average predictions of a diverse panel of expert gold market analysts. Their assessments of gold price trends are based on a variety of methods including: expert technical analysis, market fundamentals, current market sentiment, and an analysis of global economic and political events. Bookmark and/or link to this page to check back every week. Updated every Monday am.
Last Updated: May 16, 2023
Gold Forecast Short Term
Sideways
Price Drivers for next 6 weeks:
US Dollar, resistance above $2,000, money into stocks out of defensive, Fed policy.Gold Forecast 1 Year
Bullish: $2,100
Medium-term price drivers:
US dollar, central bank monetary debasement, bear market in stocks and recession, weak investor sentimentGold Forecast 3 Years
Bullish: $3,650
Long-term price drivers:
US dollar, falling currency prices, fed interest rate pivot, structural stagflation, central bank monetary debasement, negative real interest rates, and the potential for an uptick in sovereign buying.Featured Gold Price Forecasts
Since my last article posted back in early-May (i.e., 'Gold Cycles Move into Mid-Term Topping Range'), Gold has moved sharply lower, with the metal dropping over $150 - into the most recent swing low.
For the mid-term picture, the Gold cycles are deemed to be pointing south, though we are at or near the point at which a smaller-degree rally should soon take hold.
Gold Timing Index
As mentioned in past articles, the path for the mid-term picture called for higher highs into the late-April to mid-May timeframe, before setting up the next key peak for Gold - which was expected to come from the combination of 72 and 310-day cycles.
Back in early-May, I mentioned a key (sell) signal had occurred, coming from our Gold Timing Index - which is shown on the chart below:
From my 5/8/23 article: "our Gold Timing Index has formed a sizeable divergence from price action - which is something we would expect to see at mid-term peaks with Gold - such as with our 310-day cycle; at minimum, this will normally signal a top with our smaller 72-day component. Going further, a divergence between price and our Gold Timing Index - along with a diverging 72-day detrend (which is also being seen) - will see the lower blue cycle band indicator acting as the minimum magnet on the next correction, with that band currently at the 1961 figure - well below current price levels."
With our Gold Timing Index giving a sell signal back on 5/3/23 - ...
In a recent interview, renowned investor Stanley Druckenmiller explained why he sees the potential for a financial crisis centered around 2030. His timing perfectly aligns with ITR economics prediction for the next great depression. Below are some highlights from his May keynote speech as USC.
The Rise of Entitlements
Fiscal spending on older adults has grown dramatically since the 1960s. Nealy 40% of all taxes are spent on seniors, and that trend is just starting. In 25 years, it will hit 70%.
Today, the U.S. spends 600% more on social security and entitlements than they do on children. The current $31 trillion in U.S. debt doesn't include future spending. If you incorporate unfunded liabilities - it's over $200 trillion.
Demographics
The birth rate in the U.S. peaked in 1957 at 3.7 and has fallen to 1.64 as of 2020. Because seniors are living much longer, we have an inverted pyramid where far more receive benefits than pay. We are just now entering the consequences of the baby boom generation.
...
More Gold Price Forecasts
Since my last article, Gold has managed to make a new high for the larger swing, with the metal running all the way up to a peak of 2085.40 (June, 2023 contract), made in last Wednesday's session - before seeing a decent pullback off the same. For the mid-term picture...
I penned an article in late September proclaiming a potential bottom in gold as interest rates peaked. Shortly thereafter, precious metals established a base, and prices have been trending higher. Below is the chart from that article highlighting last year's bottom....
Following Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting and ¼ point interest rate hike, gold prices reached a new all-time record high: $2,079 in the spot market. This eclipses the previous record of $2,074 set in 2020 by $5 per ounce.
Last week, the Treasury Department revealed that the federal deficit hit $1.1 trillion in the first half of the fiscal year ending in March, $432 billion larger than the same period a year earlier.
With the action seen into last week, Gold managed to spike back to higher highs for the swing, with the metal running all the way up to a Thursday peak of 2063.40 (June, 2023 contract) - before selling down sharply into Friday's session.
From the comments made in past articles, the last key low for Gold came back in late- February, which was in the range for our expected bottom with the 72-day time cycle. In terms of patterns, the decline into that trough was expected to form the pattern of a 'higher-...
Gold closed above significant resistance, and a breakout to new highs could be days away. Gold miners are starting to perk up and may skyrocket…IF gold jumps to new highs. I'll be watching gold miners (GDX) for clues - below are my current thoughts on Spot Gold and GDX.
From the comments made in my last article (i.e., 'Gold's Potential Bottom'; from 3/5/23), Gold was at or into bottoming territory, with that low expected to come from our 72-day time cycle, which is shown again on the chart below:
The Fed almost made it a whole year without printing money. Gold is set to outperform the S&P 500 for several years. The real bull market starts once gold breaks above $2100.
Gold Price Forecast FAQ
How do you forecast the price of gold?
Predicting gold prices can be said to be both a science and an art. For example, analysis of gold supply and demand is scientific and completely objective whereas aspects of technical and sentiment analysis of the current gold market can be more of an art as it relies on the skills and perspective of the gold analyst.
Generally speaking, when the focus of the gold forecast is longer term then analysis of the fundamentals, ie scientific analysis, comes to the fore.
For shorter-term predictions of gold prices, the price of gold in the coming weeks and perhaps few months, technical analysis of past and current gold prices, market trends, as well as current market sentiment can be more actionable predictors. Here, the fundamentals can still play a role but generally serve more as background details.
What are the key factors for long term gold forecasts?
When forecasting what may happen to the price of gold longer term, there are many things to consider including economic trends, the impact of current and expected monetary policy, QE, debt monetization, and the aggregate impact on future currency valuation.
Does the price of gold go up when the stock market goes down?
The price of gold is often negatively correlated to the stock markets. When the markets go down, gold prices usually go up. However, this is not always true. Sometimes the price of gold and stocks both go up and down in unison. Fundamental factors play an important role and need to be carefully analyzed. Historically, however, the price of gold is not tied to the fluctuations of stock and bonds. This is one of the chief reasons when one should have gold in their portfolio – to protect the long-term value of your investments.
Does the value of the US dollar predict the price of gold?
As gold is traditionally quoted in US dollars, the price of gold is negatively correlated to the strength of the USD. The weaker the US dollar, the cheaper it is to purchase gold. Therefore, if economic factors predict a strengthening of the US dollar then this will tend to drop the price of gold, and vice-versa. According to the statistics (since 1973), the long-term correlation between the U.S. dollar index and the gold prices is -0.6 so this link is quite strong.
How do US interest rates impact future gold prices?
The level of US interest rates is an important driver of future gold prices. When investing in gold, the investor is faced with the opportunity cost of gold - a non-interest bearing asset. The higher the US interest rate for holding US dollars or investing in Treasuries, the higher the opportunity cost of holding gold. It is more likely, therefore, that a rally in the price of gold will be forecasted the lower the US benchmark interest rate.
Gold Forecast Analysts
Technical Analysis Expert & Editor @ GoldPredict.com
AG Thorson is a registered CMT through the MTA and an recognized expert in technical analysis of the precious metals markets. He is also the Editor of GoldPredict.com where members receive daily updates and regularly scheduled reports 3-days a w More...
Chief Analyst & Founder @ iGold Advisor
Christopher Aaron began his career as an intelligence analyst for the CIA and Department of Defense. He served two tours to Afghanistan and Iraq between 2006 - 2009, conducting pattern-of-life mapping for military leaders.Mapping shares similarities More...
CFA, Editor & Founder @ Sunshine Profits
Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, is the founder, owner and the main editor of SunshineProfits.com. You can reach Przemyslaw at: http://www.sunshineprofits.com/help/contact-us/. More...
Gold weighs 19.3 times as much as an equal volume of water.
Latest Gold Analysis
