Latest Gold Price Forecast & Predictions
Gold Price Now:
USD
$1,969.09
-15.13
-0.76%
Recent Changes
| Period | 2 Days | 3 Days | 1 Week | 2 Weeks | 1 Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change | -0.18% | -0.96% | +3.50% | +8.72% | +6.80% |
Gold Price Forecasts - Analyst Predictions
Gold-Eagle has been analyzing gold markets and publishing gold price forecasts for over 23 years. Our staff and contributing analysts include world reknowned precious metal experts and market analysts. The gold price forecast data below represents the average predictions of a diverse panel of expert gold market analysts. Their assessments of gold price trends are based on a variety of methods including: expert technical analysis, market fundamentals, current market sentiment, and an analysis of global economic and political events. Bookmark and/or link to this page to check back every week. Updated every Monday am.
Last Updated: March 20, 2023
Gold Forecast Short Term
Sideways
Price Drivers for next 6 weeks:
US Dollar, resistance above $2,000, bank failures.Gold Forecast 1 Year
Bullish: $2,750
Medium-term price drivers:
US dollar, bear market in stocks and recession, weak investor sentimentGold Forecast 3 Years
Bullish: $3,500
Long-term price drivers:
US dollar, falling currency prices, fed interest rate pivot, structural stagflation, central bank policy errors, negative real interest rates, and the potential for an uptick in sovereign buying.Featured Gold Price Forecasts
Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed after experiencing an old-fashioned bank run.
It started Wednesday when the bank tried to raise $2.25 billion in equity to shore up its balance sheet.
Customers panicked and withdrew a staggering $42 billion - making them insolvent.
The FDIC took over operations Friday, and SVB became the second-largest bank failure in US history.
What Happened?
From what I can gather, Silicon Valley Bank didn't do anything wrong. They were flush with cash in 2020 and 2021 from covid stimulus, and they used some of their customer deposits to buy Ginnie Mae mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Regulators consider such debt risk-free and didn't require the bank to maintain reserves. It turns out that SVB was over-concentrated in extremely low-yielding MBS and didn't hedge for interest rate risk.
Who could have predicted the Fed would hike rates from 0.25% to 4.75% in just 12 months? The odds of that happening were well below 1%. From the dot plot dated December 16, 2020 - the Fed forecasted rates to stay at 0.25% through 2021 and 2022. They didn't see rates rising to 0.50% until 2023 and only 2.50% years after. Nobody expected rates to end 2022 at 4.50%!
...
More Gold Price Forecasts
Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed after experiencing an old-fashioned bank run. It started Wednesday when the bank tried to raise $2.25 billion in equity to shore up its balance sheet. Customers panicked and withdrew a staggering $42 billion - making them insolvent. ...
From the comments made back in January, Gold was 'bracing' for its first correction of this year, with that correction expected to come from our 72-day time cycle, which is the most dominant cycle in the Gold market. That decline has played out on schedule, with the...
When gold broke above $450 in 2005, prices never looked back. I see a similar outcome as possible when gold prices break above $2000, once and for all.
After last week's employment report, markets are now pricing in 0.25% rate hikes in March, May, and potentially June. Stocks and risk assets continue to fight the Fed, refusing to believe Powell will get rates to 5.00%+ and keep them there all year.
From the comments made in past articles, the last key low for Gold came back in November of 2022, with that low coming from the combination of 72 and 310-day cycles. From that low, strength was expected to play out into January of this year - before topping the smaller...
We believe gold is in the second inning of a nine-inning advance that should take prices to new all-time highs in 2024. Precious metals remain under-owned, and pullbacks could be mild to moderate in 2023. Expect a spike in 2024 ahead of the presidential elections.
The Fed likely has one or maybe two more rate hikes before they pause in the second quarter. The US must raise the Debt ceiling before July to avoid a technical default. Bank lending standards approach recessionary levels supporting widespread weakness.
From the comments made in past month, the last mid-term low for Gold came from our 72 and 310-day cycles - which were forecast to bottom around mid-to-late October of 2022, with the actual low coming in early-November. From there, the cycles were forecast to push...
Gold has staged an impressive recovery from its Q4 2022 lows of $1,615 per ounce: the precious metal is trading at $1,860, or 15.2% higher, as this article is going to press in early January.
Gold Price Forecast FAQ
How do you forecast the price of gold?
Predicting gold prices can be said to be both a science and an art. For example, analysis of gold supply and demand is scientific and completely objective whereas aspects of technical and sentiment analysis of the current gold market can be more of an art as it relies on the skills and perspective of the gold analyst.
Generally speaking, when the focus of the gold forecast is longer term then analysis of the fundamentals, ie scientific analysis, comes to the fore.
For shorter-term predictions of gold prices, the price of gold in the coming weeks and perhaps few months, technical analysis of past and current gold prices, market trends, as well as current market sentiment can be more actionable predictors. Here, the fundamentals can still play a role but generally serve more as background details.
What are the key factors for long term gold forecasts?
When forecasting what may happen to the price of gold longer term, there are many things to consider including economic trends, the impact of current and expected monetary policy, QE, debt monetization, and the aggregate impact on future currency valuation.
Does the price of gold go up when the stock market goes down?
The price of gold is often negatively correlated to the stock markets. When the markets go down, gold prices usually go up. However, this is not always true. Sometimes the price of gold and stocks both go up and down in unison. Fundamental factors play an important role and need to be carefully analyzed. Historically, however, the price of gold is not tied to the fluctuations of stock and bonds. This is one of the chief reasons when one should have gold in their portfolio – to protect the long-term value of your investments.
Does the value of the US dollar predict the price of gold?
As gold is traditionally quoted in US dollars, the price of gold is negatively correlated to the strength of the USD. The weaker the US dollar, the cheaper it is to purchase gold. Therefore, if economic factors predict a strengthening of the US dollar then this will tend to drop the price of gold, and vice-versa. According to the statistics (since 1973), the long-term correlation between the U.S. dollar index and the gold prices is -0.6 so this link is quite strong.
How do US interest rates impact future gold prices?
The level of US interest rates is an important driver of future gold prices. When investing in gold, the investor is faced with the opportunity cost of gold - a non-interest bearing asset. The higher the US interest rate for holding US dollars or investing in Treasuries, the higher the opportunity cost of holding gold. It is more likely, therefore, that a rally in the price of gold will be forecasted the lower the US benchmark interest rate.
Gold Forecast Analysts
Technical Analysis Expert & Editor @ GoldPredict.com
AG Thorson is a registered CMT through the MTA and an recognized expert in technical analysis of the precious metals markets. He is also the Editor of GoldPredict.com where members receive daily updates and regularly scheduled reports 3-days a w More...
Chief Analyst & Founder @ iGold Advisor
Christopher Aaron began his career as an intelligence analyst for the CIA and Department of Defense. He served two tours to Afghanistan and Iraq between 2006 - 2009, conducting pattern-of-life mapping for military leaders.Mapping shares similarities More...
CFA, Editor & Founder @ Sunshine Profits
Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, is the founder, owner and the main editor of SunshineProfits.com. You can reach Przemyslaw at: http://www.sunshineprofits.com/help/contact-us/. More...
The King James Bible mentions gold 417 times. Not once does it mention a paper currency.
Latest Gold Analysis
