The Effects of Dollar Inflation (Parts 4 & 5)

At this special Easter Time I would like to dedicate my market work in general to a fallen friend from long, ago. I doubt that anybody would appreciate my work with the markets as much as he would. I know you are smiling down upon us, Big Lou… "Free Bird."

www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1mCQKuvzCM

PART 4: THE DRIVING FORCE OF THE MARKETS

The most important issue an investor needs to work on before he starts to invest is to try to isolate and to understand the "environment" of the market he will be investing in. This exercise is very important to an investor because it is the most essential step in establishing the "driving force of the markets" in an investment environment. If we can find the "driving force" in an investment environment, then we can further refine how investments might be affected by that driving force, going forward.

The above might sound pretty easy, but that certainly is not true in the current investing period. The environment of the market is analogous to the environment one might vacation in. If you go on vacation you would prepare to deal with an environment in summer differently than you would a winter season. For a summer climate vacation your decisions would be based upon the expectations of sunshine and heat. Your decisions in preparing for a winter vacation would be based upon the expectations of cold. Thus, we might decide that the "driving force" of activities in a summer climate might be the "heat", where the driving force of vacationing decisions in a winter climate might be the "cold." In the same way we investors need to get a firm idea of the investing climate we will be investing in, along with the driving force of prices and investor psychology in that investment period.

The above paragraph might sound pretty simple, and it is. Yet, there are times when your normal expectations of an environment might be very different than the reality of that period. This can happen during a vacation if a seasonal weather pattern shifts to lengthen the time of winter or of summer during the time you go on vacation. This can happen in the markets when the Fed elects to "Inflate the Dollar" into the "normal" K-Winter backdrop of strong deflation. The Dollar inflation changes the investment environment since the fall in the value of the Dollar precludes it as a safe haven store of your investment savings. The fall in the value of the Dollar also changes the math fraction metrics which effects "price." A changing effect on "price" will ultimately change the psychology of the investors in the markets. Thus, the shift by the Fed to a program of sharp Dollar Inflation in the face of the K-Winter backdrop of deflationary forces changes the expected environment to the point where the "driving force" of the markets is the program of Dollar Inflation.

There is little doubt that the "driving force" of the investment environment for this decade up until the point of the "deflation scare", was one of Dollar Inflation. Now, we need to decide whether the "trend" will continue as an environment of Dollar Inflation, or if the trend has changed to one of Dollar Deflation. Put another way, was the "deflation scare" a short period of panic attached to an episode of violent deleveraging that will result in a continuation of the prior market trend of Dollar Inflation, or was it a "sea change" to an environment of Dollar Deflation going forward? That is the basic premise of dispute in the "inflation/ deflation debate." The only way to effectively consider the above is by reverting back to the rock hard basics of the markets. To try to figure out the above in terms of "stocks falling in price" compared to past examples in history where stocks fell in "price", can be a simple witch hunt considering our work in Parts 1 through 3. We have shown that "price looks different" as do the charts depending on the state of the currency. In fact, sometimes "price = value" and at other times "price and value diverge." This issue is so important that before we launch into a discussion of the market environment- we will visit the concept of "price versus value" one last time. It might seem to some readers that we are stuck on this issue, but our opinion is that if one does not understand the mathematical fraction in play, then one has no chance of being successful in making investment decisions that will protect the value of his savings. It has not been fun for an investor in this decade to be "right on Dow price" while losing a high percentage of the value of his savings. Links to Parts 1 though 3 are linked, below…………………….

Part 1

www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/goldrunner032509.html

Part 2

www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/goldrunner040509.html

Part 3

www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/goldrunner040709.html

Nowhere To Run, Nowhere To Hide

In the earlier parts of this editorial series we have shown that "price" and "value" diverge in a period of Dollar Inflation since the price is a result of a fraction where the falling value of the Dollar is the denominator. Thus, the "value" of your investment is decided by both the "price" of the item you invest in AND the changing "price" of the Dollar as it falls in a period of Dollar Inflation. We showed in the earlier Parts how the price of the Dow rose to 14,000 in 2007, but how the "value" of your savings invested in the Dow fell pretty constantly from 2000 to 2007 in line with the fall in the value of the Dollar. We also have shown in the earlier Parts the similar relationship for the US Bond market for this decade as the "price" has risen, but the "value of the USB" has fallen about 70%. Let's look at this phenomenon one last time using the chart of the Dow.

In the chart, below, we can see the "price of the Dow" charted in candlesticks with the "value of the Dow" charted in Red. We can see that the "price" of the Dow and the "value" of the Dow diverged on the chart around 2000 with the Dow value dropping in a waterfall decline. An investor looking at his broker's summary sheet saw what he thought was his Dow investment increasing in value, though the reality was large losses in his Dow Investment. We have shown that the same phenomenon was true for the US Bond in earlier Parts, and the same was true for any investments in fixed interest rate accounts like a bank account, a CD, or a money market account.

[This chart shows that we have seen a constant loss in asset values for the whole decade- "The Silent Crash". Yet, the Silent crash occurred during a period of "price inflation" created by the Dollar Inflation. The sudden fall in Dow "price" from 2007 on, really did not equate to much more "loss in Dow value" at all. It was a "mark down in price."]

This brings up the point made by Richard Russell, "This is an environment to be concerned about 'return of capital', more than an environment to be concerned about 'return on capital." It seems to us that many of the concepts of investing including Dow Theory buy and sell signals goes out the window when new highs in "price" are met with losses of "value" approaching 75 to 80%. Thus, we have to be very careful in how we view "price" and "value."

Of course, Richard Russell also said, "Buy Gold" and "The winners in this environment will be the ones who lose the least." Those two quotes seem to be very important lessons for this decade, thus far. The point of this has nothing to do with the great mind of Richard Russell whose newsletter I think everybody should subscribe to- the point is that this decade has been a very difficult one to find investments that would protect the value of your hard earned savings, much less to find investments that really increased the value of your savings.

The Ark

There is really only one investment that an investor could have purchased with little worry to protect the value of his savings during this decade, and that is Gold. Gold's intrinsic value as defined by humans over thousands of years along with its finite supply- make ownership of physical Gold a no-brainer in times of currency inflation, or in an environment when trust in paper is falling. Any derivative of Gold in the paper gold category are subject to expansion in supply in different ways. Thus, our opinion is that all forms of paper gold should be avoided.

Since all investments in the USA are denominated in the US Dollar, the only way one could actually have gains on their investments this decade is if their investments rose more than the Dollar value fell. One could also have used leverage in their investment through the use of options, margin, or by owning the Precious Metals Companies that hold reserves of Gold and Silver in deep storage. In addition to the PM mining companies, the same type of leverage can be found in investments in companies that mine other "real things" in the commodity sector. To keep things as simple as possible, we will not discuss investments in other countries that are denominated in other currencies in this writing.

We will be discussing many of our opinions regarding different aspects of the Precious Metals Markets in due time. First, we will turn to our opinion of how the investing environment itself frames up for the future.

PART 5: FRAMING UP THE INVESTMENT CLIMATE

"Coming Price Inflation, or Coming Price Deflation?"

There is little doubt that we entered this decade with a backdrop of K-Winter- a period of massive deflationary forces caused by extreme debt at all levels of society and government. The last time the USA was in such a deflationary environment was in the 1929 era. We saw the price of the Dow "break" in very early 2000 from a top at 11,750 and start to roll over. The initial leg down lasted into the second half of 2002 where the price of the Dow bottomed around 7,200. It was during that initial leg down that analysts started making comparisons to the deflationary collapse of the Dow in 1929- "The Crash."

Into that 2000 top in the Dow, the Dollar had risen in price from 1995 into early 2000. Yet, the Fed and government made several moves that created a top in the Dollar between late 2000 and early 2002. The chart of the US Dollar broke down in 2002 starting a downward slide in US Dollar value. At that time interest rates were kept artificially low by the Fed, and the CPI Index became unreliable as a true measure of inflation due to the use of "substitution and hedonics." The financial derivatives also helped to keep rates artificially low by creating a false sense of protection against rising rates.

The value of the Dollar continued to tank as credit expansion through the Fed's fractional reserve system was bolstered by easy money policies in terms of loan provisions in the Real Estate and the Credit Card sectors. In late 2002, the Dow bottom turned into a route to the upside all the way to new highs in 2007. Below, we have a chart of the Dow with the chart of the Dollar plotted against it in Red.

[Notice how the Dow 2002 bottom suddenly became a bull run as soon as it became obvious that the fall in the Dollar was not merely a short-term correction.]

We have shown in Parts 1, 2, and 3, how the falling value of the Dollar creates "price inflation" in everything denominated in Dollars including the Dow due to the math of the fraction. Thus, there is little doubt that the rise to new highs in the Dow price into 2007 was mainly a product of Dollar Inflation through the Fractional Reserve Banking System.

Eventually, we again had a break in the Dow price in late 2007 at around 14,200. And again, we saw many analysts stampeding to announce that we were at a similar juncture in Dow price to the start of the 1929 Crash. This seems on the surface to be logical since one never really knows which top might be "the top." Yet, a top is not the question. If we look a bit deeper we might be able to find more basic hints to the answer to our question, "Inflation or Deflation?" Many analysts are for the second time in this decade calling for a Dow Crash of about 90% in price that would be similar to the 1929 Crash. They cite the massive deflationary backdrop as a reason. They also cite their expected inability of the Fractional Reserve Banking System (FRB) to be able to function again to create more Dollar Inflation in this climate like it did between 2002 and 2007.

This really is a very important question to all investors. If we were to see an environment of outright Deflation going forward, it will affect our investing decisions completely. This "inflation versus deflation" question is the biggest question that investors need to answer for the next several years. So, how do we work out a solution to the question that might give us a high probability answer? Well, I think that the first thing we do is to take a good look at the conditions that created the Dollar Deflation in the 1929 Era to compare to Dollar inflation periods like the 1970s, and like this decade.

DOLLAR DEFLATION 1929 DOW

We know that the Dow faced a deflationary debt backdrop, the K-Winter, going into 1929. We also know that the Dollar was very strong in the 1929 Era because the Dollar was "tied to" and convertible to Gold at a set price. Thus, the "value" of the Dollar was very steady in that time period, in fact, the value of the Dollar on a chart would have approximated a horizontal line. For the fraction "Dow/ Dollar" the Dollar value denominator for the 1929 Era approached a constant number. Thus, the stability of the Dollar value would have contributed no relative effect on the "Dow Price" in the 1929 period due to the math fraction and no effect on the Dow Price Chart. Thus, "Dow price = Dow Value" per our earlier discussion for the whole of the 1929 Era. In terms of the 1929 Crash chart- "What you see, is what you get", with no hidden factors like a changing value of the US Dollar.

In 1929 investors could convert their Dollars to a set amount of Gold at a set price so when the price of the Dow broke in 1929 many investors simply hoarded Dollars. The simple act of selling one's portfolio resulted in an investor holding a convertible equivalent of Gold- the Ark that would protect the value of one's savings. With a constant valued Dollar as the denominator in the fraction, all losses were shown in the "price of the Dow" so we saw a waterfall decline in the Dow Chart to match the true asset deflation going on. The selling pressure in the Dow was not just a process of investors trying to flee a deflationary panic out of Dow stocks, but it was really a dual process whereby investors were fleeing to the US Dollar which was convertible to Gold. Thus, the result was a pure self-propelled panic in a typical waterfall destructive decline in Dow price AND in value. One that continued until the historical 90% decline metric was met. Below, we see a chart of the "Dow Crash" in 1929. Remember that the value of the Dollar was almost a relative constant for the whole period since the US Dollar was convertible to Gold, and the price of Gold was "fixed" in that era. Thus the chart of the Dollar was basically a horizontal line on a chart.

It is very important to understand that investors in the 1929 era could hold Dollars due to their constant value as they were convertible to Gold. This created Dollar hoarding, a form of Dollar Deflation as the supply of Dollars was not moving back into the economy. The economy contracted in a waterfall decline in the form of a Depression hampered by massive debt, a falling velocity of Dollars, and leveraged schemes that melted down. It is important to note that the value of the US Dollar was "strong" as we entered the 1929 crash period, and the US Dollar continued to be "strong" throughout the Dow Crash.

Yen Deflation 1990 Japan

Japan entered 1990 in much the same environment as the 1929 Dow. The Yen was rising in value with the level of debt in Japan reaching K-Winter proportions. Great leveraged schemes had been applied to their stock markets for some time. In 1990 the Nikkei price "broke" at around 39,000 and started to fall precipitously. The Yen was not tied to Gold, but the value of the Yen continued higher after the market broke, basically moving sideways in a broad range ever since the 1990 Nikkei top until now. Thus, we'd have to describe the "state of the Yen" as one of "Yen Deflation" as the value of the underlying Japanese currency remained relatively high and stable, basically moving sideways after the top in the Nikkei all the way to the present. Japanese investors in the Nikkei could sell their stock holdings and move to a fairly high-valued Yen all of this time to protect the value of their savings from the falling Nikkei Stock Index. Since the chart of the Yen moved basically sideways, the value of the Yen like the Dollar in 1929 remained relatively stable with a slight upside bias- a state of Yen Deflation. Thus, the denominator in the fraction "Nikkei/ Yen" remained relatively stable so the "Nikkei price= value" as all losses were reflected in the Nikkei price. Thus, like the Dow of 1929 we saw a large fall in the Nikkei Stock index in a period of Yen Deflation. Chart, below……………..Yen in Red.

In the next chart we will see how "price" and "value" move together in a period of currency deflation. We could not show this relationship with the 1929 Dow due to a lack of the necessary software.

We have seen that in both the "Deflationary" US market of 1929 and the Deflationary Japanese markets of 1990 the currency in each case presented as "currency deflation." Those currency deflations created a situation where investors could easily sell their stock holdings and move to stable currencies to protect the value of their savings. The relatively stable value of the currencies in both cases created a relatively stable denominator on the "stock/currency" fraction that relatively approached the number 1. We have seen that in both the US 1929 Crash and the 1990 Nikkei crash that the currency deflation going into the stock market top, persisted throughout the whole stock market decline. In both of these examples, long periods of "price deflation" developed. In both of these periods we would describe the economies as being in "Depressions." Now, let's take a look at a couple of Stock Index declines in an environment of "price inflation."

THE DOLLAR INFLATION 1970s

The 1970s US stock market came at a different juncture in the Kondratieff Cycle, an inflationary period. Yet, we had high historic debt levels, and we were suffering through a recession. A "recession" might be considered to be one "Elliott Wave Degree" below a "Depression" in terms of amplitude. Thus, the 1970s were similar to the two previous periods we have shown in that the 70s was an economic recessionary period marked with high debt. Going into the 1970s the Dow had risen almost constantly from around 100 in the early 1940s to around 1,000 as it approached 1970. In the 1970s the Dow topped, fell about 30%, then rose to a new high before falling to a relatively small new low. These Dow price movements occurred during a period of Dollar Inflation as the Dollar fell in value from around 125 in 1969 down to around 96 in 1974, then after a rebound, the Dollar fell in a second down leg into a momentum low to around 80 in 1978……….before falling to a final low in 1980.

In the 1970s, we saw the Dollar inflation effect of the fraction "Dow/ Dollar" with a falling Dollar Value denominator. We have shown earlier in this editorial series how the math fraction effect in a period of Dollar Inflation creates a "divergence of price from value" with the Dow price going higher while the Dow value falls. The Dollar inflation math fraction effect pushed the Dow price to a new high in the 70's "in the middle of the Dow correction." Let's look at the charts. First, we have the chart of the Dollar in the 1970's as described, above.

Next, we have the price chart of the Dow in the 1970s.

Look at the long-term chart of the Dow, above, where we see the "flat movement of the Dollar Inflation Dow in the 70's" circled in the middle of the chart, then compare it to the "sharp waterfall decline of the Dollar Deflation 1929 Crash" circled on the left. The structure of the Dow price movement in the two periods looks very different, yet, how would the two periods compare if the "effect of the Dollar Inflation" of the 1970s was factored out?

Below, we have a long-term chart of "$Dow:$Gold." This chart factors out the effect of the changing value of the Dollar during Dollar Inflation. Notice that factoring out the effect of the Dollar has no effect on the structure of the waterfall decline in the 1929 Crash. Notice that factoring out the Dollar Inflation has a tremendous effect on the structure of the Dow Price Chart in the 1970s, as the "sideways correction" in the 1970s portion of the chart changes to a waterfall decline. This chart shows that if it were not for the Dollar Inflation math effect in the 1970s period, the 1970's Dow Price Chart would have crashed as much or more than in the 1929 Crash. Thus, in the 1970s Dollar inflation period an investor's "value", if invested in the Dow, fell almost the same percentage as in the 1929 Crash. The value of the investor's savings was an accumulative loss that included the loss in the falling value of the Dollar. The Dollar inflation in the 1970s "masked" a percentage of the investor's "real value losses." We call this a "Silent Crash." This phenomenon is very similar to what Dow investors experienced between 2000 and today.

Now, you can see the reason we spent so much time developing Parts 1 through 3 of this editorial series. If one considers the effect of the currency on an investor's loss of value in an investment in the Dow in the 1970s, the investor lost just as much value as the 1929 Crash Dow investor did on a percentage basis. We have shown that the chart of the Dow in the 1929 Crash was not affected by our "value chart" so "reasonably" the only variable present to "hide" the real crash in Dow value in the 1970s chart was the Dollar Inflation effect on the math fraction. Thus, we had "price inflation" in the 70s as a direct result of "Dollar Inflation" in the 70's which was directly attributable to the math fraction. This "WAS NOT" an effect of "supply and demand" for Dow stocks in the charts above. The difference between the two charts was only a change in one variable, factoring out the effect of the Dollar Inflation. This will become very important in our discussion of the current Dow and of what we might expect in the coming time period.

THE CURRENT DECADE DOLLAR INFLATION

We have noted that the current decade presented during the expected period of K-Winter with its massive deflationary backdrop. We have shown in the chart of the price of the Dow how "price broke" in 2000 and dropped into late 2002. We have also shown the effect of the Dollar Inflation that began as the Dollar topped in 2001. With the onset of the Dollar Inflation, the "Price and Value of the Dow diverged" as it did in the 1970s Dollar Inflation period. Let's take a look at all 3 of these together in one chart. In this chart we see the "Dow Price in Blue", the "Dow Value with the effect of Dollar Inflation factored out in Red", and the chart of the Dollar in Green.

We see in this chart that the state of the Dollar is very different than in the US 1929 Crash and in the Yen in the 1990 Nikkei Crash, from today. Remember that in 1929 the Dollar was tied to Gold, thus the US Dollar approximated a horizontal line on a chart. In 1990 Japan the Yen was rising and continued to move sideways in a broad band with a slightly rising bias. Those two periods were Currency Deflation.

Currently, we see Dollar Inflation early in the decade as the chart of the Dollar falls from around 120, down to around 70. Thus, an investor in the current Dow was losing value in his investment in the underlying currency while the falling value of the currency as the denominator in the fraction "Dow/ USD" was causing the Dow Price to rise. The bulk of the rise in the Dow Price Chart was really "Dow price inflation caused by Dollar Inflation" through the simple math fraction. (We showed this in comparing the two charts of the 1970's Dow during Dollar Inflation.) Thus, we had a false price rise in the Dow as the Dow Value diverged and fell in a waterfall decline. Eventually as the divergence of Dow price and value widened, the price of the Dow fell in the period we had proposed as the "Deflation Scare." This was a "price mark down" period. Every aspect compares much more favorably to the Dow of the 1970s than it does to either the Dollar Deflation 1929 Dow or of the 1990 Yen Deflation Nikkei. If we do not see a complete reversal in the state of the US Dollar from Dollar Inflation to Dollar Deflation, then we would expect the future route of the markets to mimic the 1970's period of Dollar Inflation.

It is true that the Dollar Inflation created from 2001 to the "Deflation Scare" was created through the Fractional Reserve Banking System. Those analysts looking for deflation going forward cite their expectations of Dollar Deflation going forward. The analysts say that the fractional reserve banking system that has created credit expansion and Dollar Inflation up until now, will not be able to function going forward. They also suggest that credit will not be able to be expanded in order to create "the demand" that could cause Price Inflation. But, wait a minute. We have already shown that the "Price Inflation of the Dow" created in the 1970s was almost entirely created by the math fraction with the Dollar Value fall in the denominator. We have even backed that up by showing a similar effect for this decade's Dow in an earlier Part of this series. Thus, it seems that "Dow demand" had very little to do with the price rise in the Dow in this decade, or in the 1970s. If true, that might mean that the effect of the Dollar Inflation in both periods simply overwhelmed "demand."

Regardless, if the Fed is to continue the program of Dollar Inflation going forward, we would expect to see similar effects on the Dow as we have seen through this decade and through the decade of the 1970s. The Fed has stated that they will continue the program of Dollar Inflation, and if they had wanted to see Deflation at any time, all they would have had to have done was to stop inflating the US Dollar.

Thus, if Dollar Inflation can be created by some other mechanism other than the FRB system, we would still expect to see "Price Inflation" in the future. The "Deflation Scare" came perfectly on cue in the long-term cycle as the "value of the derivative question" suddenly popped up. It also magically manifested at the same time that the Fed ran out of "balance sheet." The result of the "Deflation Scare" was that the Fed pretty quickly gaining the power to expand its balance sheet MASSIVELY. In fact, the result of the deflation scare was a move to start to inflate the Dollar through the external means of monetizing debt. The second leg of Dollar Inflation started immediately after the deflation scare through monetization of debt through the bail-outs. This has been followed by the start of monetization of Treasury Debt. In our opinion the "Second Leg of Dollar Inflation" is what we'd call an "External One" since the monetization of debt lies outside the usual system of Dollar Inflation born of the FRB system. Still, the monetization of debt is the printing of new Dollars to pay off debt. It is also an act of defaulting on debt since the increase of newly printed Dollars makes every outstanding Dollar worth less. Such a move should eventually unnerve the Bond markets which we have shown already have a loss of around 70% in value hidden from the US Bond price.

Gold was not fooled by the new round of Dollar Inflation as Gold bottomed about the time that the monetization through bail-outs was announced. (Right on time with the cycle.) Gold smelled the falling value of the US Dollar even though the fiat pricing scheme Dollar Index failed to show the Dollar Value roll over. The "Second Leg of Dollar Inflation" has already commenced. It has commenced in the form of monetization of debt that few have considered a possibility.

Analysts who were looking back at the 1929 Dollar Deflation period missed the effect of Dollar Inflation from 2002 to 2007. I think those same analysts are now focusing on "demand" and the fractional reserve system as they call the "false top in the Dow price chart"- The Top. Dollar Inflation is Dollar Inflation in terms of creating Price Inflation through the math fraction. The second leg of Dollar Inflation through debt monetization will create price inflation whether demand is created through the FRB system, or not. We expect the economy to remain weak or to deteriorate further over the next few years. Yet, we expect the second leg of Dollar Inflation to continue the very favorable similar effects across a wide range of market sectors as compared to the 1970's Dollar Inflation.

We are now in a window where we might see a final low in the Dow based on the cycle since one must factor out the Dollar Inflation to compare to the 1929 Crash chart. We expect to see the Dow either fall to one final low over the next 3 to 6 months, or to at least test the low one more time. If the Dow follows the 1970s chart pattern, we'll shortly see a slightly lower low as the final Dow bottom.

This seems like a good place to stop. Don't forget that the above exercise was simply developed as a framework under which to consider the question of "inflation or deflation", going forward. All of the above, in addition to the cycle itself, was what we based our analysis upon when a long-time, ago, we suggested the Dow Deflation Scare fall into at least a momentum bottom into the 4th quarter of 2008, along with a bottom in $Gold for that part of the long-term cycle.

We would like to end by wishing everybody a Happy Easter, though that time will likely have passed by the time you read this.

A NOTE ABOUT OUR EDITORIALS

With some work and responsibilities out of the way, we expect to be moving to a subscription newsletter or investment site. It looks like I will have a friend as a partner. Anyone interested in receiving information when our site is up, feel free to send a note to the e-mail contact, below. Anybody who contacted us last year will have an e-mail notification sent to them.

[email protected]

Editorials like this one are meant to help define, or to "frame up" the investing climate we are in. Along with different "forward-looking" price projections, this framework is only the starting point of our investment strategy. The real nuts and bolts of investing will always lie in the work an investor does with each individual investment choice- both fundamental and technical chart-related. That includes some regular method of limiting risk, and there are many techniques to do so. Still, we feel that working hard to get a good feel for the coming investment climate, comparing the fractal considerations to past similar investment periods, and then instituting a sound and specific investment technique; will greatly increase our reward to risk probabilities. Minimizing risk while optimizing the potential for reward is about as good as it gets because "nobody knows for sure.

[email protected]

For the moment…………..Goldrunner.

Again, I'd like to thank all of the posters at the Gold-Eagle Forum for their daily input. Special thanks go to Dr. Vronsky and Westerman for creating the Gold-Eagle site and for editing my work. A very special "Congratulations" go out to Dr. Vronsky and Westerman after Gold-Eagle saw its hit counter ring up to 327 million this last week.

Here is the link to a site I use to research the warrants of Precious Metals stocks. I will be discussing some aspects of the leveraged use of warrants later in this editorial series. http://preciousmetalswarrants.com

Another very good site that is dedicated to investments in Silver belongs to David Morgan, and his site can be found here……………. www.silver-investor.com