Elliott Wave Counts For Gold Price, S&P500 And GDX

Gold

Short-Term Update

After reaching a low of 1152.50 in the Sunday overnight session gold rallied to a high of 1167.80 in yesterday’s day session!

In the overnight session gold reached a low of 1158.50, but at the time that this Post was being written gold has returned to yesterday’s day session highs around the 1166.00 level.

It is now looking like wave *iii* may could now be complete as we can see an ending diagonal triangle formation on the Daily Gold Chart.

On the Intraday Chart we have satisfied all of the minimum requirements for a completed diagonal triangle, at the low of 1152.50.

Upon completion of wave *iii*, we are still expecting a wave *iv* rally to be followed by another drop in wave *v* to complete all of wave. We will provide retracement levels for wave *iv* when we believe that wave *iii* is complete.

Intraday, a break and close above the trend line connecting 1196.80 and 1182.20 would likely signal the end of wave *iii*, and the start of our wave *iv* corrective rally.

Gold has now retraced below our 61.8% retracement level but our 78.6% retracement level is 1116.50. We would not want to see wave -ii- fall below this level.

We were a little surprised that gold did not rally when the USDX dropped in its wave -iv- correction, so if gold has still not reached its wave *iii* low but the USDX has already completed its wave -iv- we likely have a bust somewhere here.

Longer-Term Update

Gold has still NOT completed its wave -ii- correction. The Weekly Gold Chart has been updated to reflect our current count.

Active Trading Positions: Long 30 positions, with puts at 1250.00!

S&P500

Short-Term Update:

The S&P continued higher in yesterday’s day session and again in the overnight session as the S&P Futures are up about 8 points, at the time that this Post was being written.

The S&P shows no signs of turning lower as we are now likely heading to our next projection point of 2285.92, before all of wave .c. and -iii- end.

Projection points do not always work out so we need to warn that we have satisfied all of the minimum requirements for a completed wave -iii- rally at the current high. Wave -iv- could then start at any time. When wave -iv- begins it could take a number of weeks to unfold.

The final top in the S&P is still likely to occur early in 2017.                                                                                                

Long-Term Update

Wave (v) has become a diagonal triangle. We could now be complete all of wave .c. of -iii- at the 2214.81 high. Upon completion of wave -iii-, we expect a wave -iv- drop followed by a wave -v- rally.

Active Trading Positions: Flat!

GDX

Short-Term Update

The GDX was basically unchanged in yesterday’s day session.

We are now looking for one more drop back to the 20.14 low to complete the minimum requirements for a completed wave c and all of wave 2.

The concern we have is what happened to the wave *iv* rally in gold, as according to our current count we are still falling in wave *iii* is gold.

Our updated count for wave 2 is:

a = 25.17;

b = 28.56;

c:

(i) = 22.50;

(ii) = 25.93;

(iii) = 20.14;

(iv) = 21.74, if complete;

(v) drop back to at least the 20.14 low to complete all of wave c and wave 2.

Our retracement levels for end of all of wave 2 are:

50% = 22.10;

61.8% = 19.81.

Long-Term Update

We now believe that all of wave 1 ended at 31.79 and that wave 2 has now almost complete.  

Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!

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Free Trades Offer For Gold-Eagle Readers:  Send me an email to [email protected] and I’ll send you my next couple short term ewave trades for free!

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