Gold C Wave Breakout!

Gold

 

Gold cooled off in the overnight session, which should not be a surprise after the sharp rally we saw yesterday!

If this rally is now wave -iii- then gold’s raly should dramatically accelerate sharply over the next couple of weeks.

Once we rally above the $1225 level, we will raise our stops to the $1174 level.

We will give this market another day or so, before we start to provide our EWave Analysis of the internal wave structure of wave -iii-.

Our preferred next target is the -iii-=1.619-i-target of $1320.10.  The C wave breakout is in play!

We’re nicely in the black on our 15 long COMEX 100 ounce contract gold positions.  We’re risking to $1141.40

Crude Oil

Crude Oil had an uneventful overnight session, but it is looking to us like wave ^iv^ is being a small triangle as follows:

!a! = 55.73;

!b! = 58.38;

!c! = 56.09, if complete;

We have waves !d! and !e! still to go.

We cannot break the wave !a! low of 55.74, for this triangle formation to remain valid.

In any event, it appears that wave ^iv^ is not complete at 55.74. Our target for the end of wave ^v^ and all of wave *iii* is 63.96.

SUNCOR

   

The Captain considers Suncor to be a key indicator for the energy sector.  Crude Oil will have its time in the sun, but that time is not here yet!   Also, with the general equity market poised to potentially crash imminently, oil stocks could struggle, while gold stocks surge higher!                                        

S&P500

Within wave .c. of wave -v-, we, have the following internal wave structure:

*i* = 2109.64;

*ii* = 2091.05;

*iii* = 2125.92, if complete;

*iv* = 2107.04, if complete;

*v* to go.

The problem with the above count is that we have overlap with the top of wave *i* and the bottom of wave *iv*. This is not permitted. The above count would need to be modified as follows:

*i* = 2109.64;

*ii* = 2091.05;

*iii*:

^i^ = 2125.92;

^ii^ = 2107.04;

^iii^ is next.

Even with Apple’s results, the S&P500 failed to rally much.

This market will tell us soon what it wants to do, and maybe its lack of reaction to Apple…. just did!

Note: There is an outside chance that wave –v- ended at 2125.92

We plan to short 2 positions at 2070 and 3 positions at 2047.

Stops will be added when filled.

USDX

The USDX continued lower in the overnight session, reaching 96.43, at the time that this Post was being written.

As we indicated in yesterday’s End of Day Post, we did advise that wave .c. was likely not complete at the 96.62 low. 

For our current wave -iv- triangle pattern to remain valid, wave .c. could drop all the wave down to the wave .a. low of 94.87.

We can still make a case for further downside in the USDX, within wave .c., to the 95.50 level.

Upon completion of wave .c., we expect a rally in wave .d., as the wave -iv- triangle continues to unfold. 

We need to watch this market!  If the S&P tops, then we doubt very much that the USDX will make a new high above 100.71, and in that case we believe that wave -v- likely ended at the 100.26, as a failure wave.

For now we are sticking with our wave -iv- triangle option as the preferred.

We are short 5 positions, risking to 97.46!

HUI/GDX

We do have a bullish count for this market, but it involves us using wave failures to make the analysis work, which has been a concern for us, as some of you well know.

In the meantime though, with gold on the move, we are holding all of our long positions.  Today’s breakout action is excellent news.

We remain long all GDX positions, with stops at 18.37!

NEWMONT MINING

Newmont had blew out earnings expectations, which is what we expected, given that it is beginning a huge C wave advance higher!  Barrick should “join the party” soon, and with these two stocks in full C wave advance mode, both GDX and GDXJ, and their component stocks, should stage barnburner rallies in the coming weeks!

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Email: [email protected]

Website: www.captainewave.com

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