Technical Analysis Of Major Markets

GOLD

 

Gold remained range bound in the overnight session, as we traded within the high and low that was made in yesterday’s day and overnight session.  We need gold to start moving higher if wave -ii- actually ended last Friday at the 1184.50 low.

We note that the Daily Sentiment Index for gold is at 5% bulls, which usually indicates a major rally is about to unfold!

On the bearish side, we cannot rule the possibility that gold is going to break below the 1072.30 low one more time, before our major bottom is in place.  

The current count from the wave 4 low is: 

.i. = 1169.80;

.ii.:

*a* = 1117.00;

*b* = 1147.30;

*c* = 1097.70;

*x*:

^a^ = 1156.40;

^b^ = 1103.80;

^c^ = 1191.80, to complete all of wave *x*;

*a* = 1167.30;

*b* = 1183.10

*c* = 1084.50, if complete, to complete all of wave .ii..

Here’s a look at the long term chart:

We are long 20 positions, with protective put options at 1085.00!

CRUDE

On the Intraday Chart, from yesterday’s low of 43.66 to the overnight high of 44.22, we have a series of overlapping waves, which indicates that we will be revisiting the 43.66 low at least more time before wave ^ii^ of *iii* ends.

The other option we are starting to consider is that wave *ii* is not complete at the 42.60 low, and it is becoming more complex than our current 3 wave pattern.

We are long 15 positions, with 42.00 puts, as stops!                                                                            

S&P500

The S&P futures are down about 6 points, at the time that this Post was being written. If our current idea that all of wave (ii) is complete at 2116.48, then we need to see more acceleration to the downside in this market.

Another drop of 25 to 30 points soon would be very helpful to our current analysis. It is too early to try and start subdividing the current drop in wave (iii), from an Ewaves point of view.   

We are short 5 positons risking to 2117.00! 

USDX

 

The USDX rallied to a high of 99.39, in the overnight session, at the time that this Post was being written. In the shorter term, it looks like we will be challenging the 99.46 high.

If our current analysis is to remain valid we need the USDX to turn lower now, otherwise, we have to conclude that wave -iv- ended at 92.54, and the USDX is now rallying to at least the wave -iii- high of 100.71.

A break below 97.36 would give us confidence that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 99.46 high.

Our current preferred count is:

-i- = 93.16:

-ii-:

.a. = 97.88

.b. triangle = 96.38;

.c. = 98.42;

.x. = 92.54;

.a. = 96.64;

.b. = 93.83;

.c. = 99.46, if complete to complete all of wave .ii. 

We are short 5 positons at 98.60, risking to 100.27!

NATGAS

NG rallied to 2.334 in the overnight session.  On the Intraday Chart, the drop from 2.398 to the current low of 2.274 looks corrective, with lots of overlapping waves.

This suggests that once this correction is complete NG is going to rally above the 2.398 high.

If NG can trade and close above the downtrend line connecting 2.79 and 2.58; which is the upper part of our ending diagonal triangle, then we should be able to conclude that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 1.95.

The next big event will then be a multi-month rally in wave (iv).

Our target zone for the end of wave (iv) is :

23.6% = 2.64;

38.2% = 3.08.

As indicated in an earlier Post we will NOT be trading the wave (iv) rally, but we will be reporting on its development.”

We are flat Nat Gas!

HUI/GDX

In a nutshell, we need gold to start to rally right now, to confirm that all of wave -ii- is now complete at the 13.31 low.

If that doesn’t happen, we are almost certainly heading new lows for GDX,below the 12.62 level!

Our current Ewave count is:

-i-:

.i. = 14.71;

.ii. = 13.19;

.iii. = 15.83;

.iv. triangle = 15.73

.v. = 17.04, to complete all of wave -i-;

-ii-:

.a. = 15.61

.b. = 16.81

.c. = 13.31, if complete to complete all of wave -ii-.

-iii- rally is next.    

We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!

CLAUDE RESOURCES

Claude is our bell weather gold stock, and it’s held up magnificently during this most recent decline.  Our short term 98 cent target is within reaching distance.

We first brought this stock to enthusiastic Ewave followers about a year ago, and it’s really set an example for the type of price action that can occur even without a rally in gold, with the right company management!

********

Email: [email protected]

Website: www.captainewave.com

Risk: CAPTAINEWAVE.COM IS AN IMPERSONAL ADVISORY SERVICE. AND THEREFORE, NO CONSIDERATION CAN OR IS MADE TOWARD YOUR FINANCIAL CIRCUMSTANCES. ALL MATERIAL PRESENTED WITHIN CAPTAINEWAVE.COM IS NOT TO BE REGARDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE, BUT FOR GENERAL INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. TRADING STOCKS DOES INVOLVE RISK, SO CAUTION MUST ALWAYS BE UTILIZED. WE CANNOT GUARANTEE PROFITS OR FREEDOM FROM LOSS. YOU ASSUME THE ENTIRE COST AND RISK OF ANY TRADING YOU CHOOSE TO UNDERTAKE. YOU ALSO AGREE TO BEAR COMPLETE RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR INVESTMENT RESEARCH AND DECISIONS AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT CAPTAINEWAVE.COM HAS NOT AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS OR GIVE ADVICE TO YOU OR ANY OF ITS CLIENTS UPON WHICH THEY SHOULD RELY. CAPTAINEWAVE.COM SUGGESTS THAT THE CLIENT/MEMBER TEST ALL INFORMATION AND TRADING METHODOLOGIES PROVIDED AT OUR SITE THROUGH PAPER TRADING OR SOME OTHER FORM OF TESTING. CAPTAINEWAVE.COM, ITS OWNERS, OR ITS REPRESENTATIVES ARE NOT REGISTERED AS SECURITIES BROKER-DEALERS OR INVESTMENT ADVISORS EITHER WITH THE U.S. SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION OR WITH ANY STATE SECURITIES REGULATORY AUTHORITY. WE RECOMMEND CONSULTING WITH A REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR, BROKER-DEALER, AND/OR FINANCIAL ADVISOR. IF YOU CHOOSE TO INVEST WITH OR WITHOUT SEEKING ADVICE FROM SUCH AN ADVISOR OR ENTITY, THEN ANY CONSEQUENCES RESULTING FROM YOUR INVESTMENTS ARE YOUR SOLE RESPONSIBILITY.

ALL INFORMATION POSTED IS BELIEVED TO COME FROM RELIABLE SOURCES. CAPTAINEWAVE.COM DOES NOT WARRANT THE ACCURACY, CORRECTNESS, OR COMPLETENESS OF INFORMATION AVAILABLE FROM ITS SERVICE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY LOSS INCURRED. DUE TO THE ELECTRONIC NATURE OF THE INTERNET, THE CAPTAINEWAVE.COM WEBSITE, ITS E-MAIL & DISTRIBUTION SERVICES AND ANY OTHER SUCH "ALERTS" COULD FAIL AT ANY GIVEN TIME. CAPTAINEWAVE.COM WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR UNAVAILABILITY OF USE OF ITS WEBSITE, NOR UNDELIVERED E-MAILS, OR "ALERTS" DUE TO INTERNET BANDWIDTH PROBLEMS, EQUIPMENT FAILURE, OR ACTS OF GOD. CAPTAINEWAVE.COM DOES NOT WARRANT THAT THE TRANSMISSION OF E-MAILS, OR ANY "ALERT" WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR ERROR-FREE. CAPTAINEWAVE.COM WILL NOT BE LIABLE FOR THE ACTS OR OMISSIONS OF ANY THIRD PARTY WITH REGARDS TO CAPTAINEWAVE.COM DELAY OR NON-DELIVERY OF THE CAPTAINEWAVE.COM NIGHTLY EMAILS OR "ALERTS". FURTHER, WE DO NOT RECEIVE ANY FORM OF PAYMENT OR OTHER COMPENSATION FOR PUBLISHING INFORMATION, NEWS, RESEARCH OR ANY OTHER MATERIAL CONCERNING ANY SECURITIES ON OUR SITE OR PUBLISH ANY INFORMATION ON OUR SITE THAT IS INTENDED TO AFFECT OR INFLUENCE THE VALUE OF SECURITIES.

THERE IS NO GUARANTEE PAST PERFORMANCE WILL BE INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. NO ASSURANCE CAN BE GIVEN THAT THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF CAPTAINEWAVE.COM WILL BE PROFITABLE OR WILL NOT BE SUBJECT TO LOSSES. ALL CLIENTS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THAT THE RESULTS OF A PARTICULAR PERIOD WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE INDICATIVE OF RESULTS IN FUTURE PERIODS. THE RESULTS LISTED AT THIS WEBSITE ARE BASED ON HYPOTHETICAL TRADES. PLAINLY SPEAKING, THESE TRADES WERE NOT ACTUALLY EXECUTED. HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED TRADES DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE OVER OR UNDER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. YOU MAY HAVE DONE BETTER OR WORSE THAN THE RESULTS PORTRAYED. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. NO INDEPENDENT PARTY HAS AUDITED THE HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE CONTAINED AT THIS WEBSITE, NOR HAS ANY INDEPENDENT PARTY UNDERTAKEN TO CONFIRM THAT THEY REFLECT THE TRADING METHOD UNDER THE ASSUMPTIONS OR CONDITIONS SPECIFIED HEREAFTER. WHILE THE RESULTS PRESENTED AT THIS WEBSITE ARE BASED UPON CERTAIN ASSUMPTIONS BELIEVED TO REFLECT ACTUAL TRADING CONDITIONS, THESE ASSUMPTIONS MAY NOT INCLUDE ALL VARIABLES THAT WILL AFFECT, OR HAVE IN THE PAST AFFECTED, THE EXECUTION OF TRADES INDICATED BY CAPTAINEWAVE.COM. THE HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS ON THIS WEBSITE ARE BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE CLIENT BUY AND SELLS THE POSITIONS AT THE OPEN PRICE OF THE STOCK. THE SIMULATION ASSUMES PURCHASE AND SALE PRICES BELIEVED TO BE ATTAINABLE. IN ACTUAL TRADING, PRICES RECEIVED MAY OR MAY NOT BE THE SAME AS THE ASSUMED ORDER PRICES.