US Dollar Is Going No Where Fast

August 26, 2017

The US Dollar (DXY Index) has moved relatively sideways over the past several weeks. The pattern that we have seen up off the August 2nd low has also been quite corrective in nature.

This sideways action does fit with our larger degree perspective that the DXY is in a fourth wave corrective pattern. This is suggestive that the DXY still has some unfinished business to the downside prior to seeing a larger degree bottom.

In general, the US Dollar has stayed off of the radar of those in the financial media in the past several weeks. Most have been focusing on the movement in the equity markets. I will note that while the DXY Index has not moved much over the past several weeks, some of the other currency pairs against the US Dollar have seen a bit more movement.

Of the major currency pairs, the GBP/USD, in particular, has now fallen some 5% from its recent highs. The GBP/USD has also already broken some key support levels suggesting that a larger degree top may be in place on this pair. Whether this potential top in the GBP/USD is a prelude of a larger bottoming pattern in the DXY index itself is still yet to be seen.

From a price perspective, as long as the DXY is trading under the short term resistance level of 96.06-97.92 there is no signal of a larger degree bottom being struck. Structurally the move up off of the Augusts 2nd low is now counting best as a corrective wave structure. This corrective wave structure is more supportive of the white path as shown on the charts below.  

As long as the DXY is trading under the short-term resistance level, there is still likely has more work to do to the downside. I will note, however, that should the DXY move back under the August 2nd lows, it will be closing in on a much larger degree support. This support remains at the 91.12 level. If that level is broken, it would open the door to a large degree top having been struck with the January of 2017 highs.

So, as the US Dollar continues to go nowhere in a tight range, we simply do our best to stay out of its way.

See charts illustrating the wave counts on the USD.

Mike Golembesky is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst, covering US Indices, Volatility Instruments, and Forex on ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.

The Incas thought gold represented the glory of their sun god and referred to the precious metal as “Tears of the Sun.”