Here are today's videos and charts.
Gold Editorials & Commentary
June 7, 2019
Gold surged sharply over this past week or so, nearing a major bull-market breakout! Nearly everyone was surprised by this violent awakening, which erupted suddenly as gold languished around year-to-date lows. If this dramatic rally has staying power, gold has...
If there is one concept that illustrates the difference between a top-down macro-economic approach and the reality of everyday life it is the velocity of circulation of money. Compare the following statements:
Physical precious metals serve a unique role in an investment portfolio. Unlike stocks and bonds, gold and silver coins can be held entirely outside of the financial system. They carry zero counterparty risk. They are the ultimate “buy and hold” safe-haven assets....
Gold has gained in dollars this week and also rose in other currencies (see LBMA prices below) due to concerns about the slowing U.S., UK, EU and Chinese economies and indeed the global economy.
We asked our researchers a question recently, “Could Gold rally above $3750 before the end of 2019?”. We wanted to see what type of research they would bring to the table that could support a move like this of nearly 200% from current levels. We wanted to hear...
In my last article, I outlined how the same news event can “cause” the market to rally 9% at one time, and drop 5% another time. And, then I noted how I am quite certain there will be some of you that will try to explain away this clear lack of consistency with some...
June 6, 2019
In recent days the market has moved from expecting a rate cut by January 2020 to now expecting as much as three rate cuts by then. As a result both gold and gold stocks launched higher, forming a “three white soldiers” bullish reversal pattern.
As stock markets continue to trade near precarious highs and an underlying current of geopolitical uncertainty continues to limit the outlook for equities in 2019, it is not entirely surprising to see going prices rallying. Indeed, this has been our price forecast...
President Trump announced a 5% tariff on Mexican goods. It added to the concerns about the state of the U.S. economy and prompted the Fed officials to soften their language. With no end to the U.S. - China trade dispute in sight, gold jumped above $1,330 in response...
Christopher Whalen wrote “Trump is Right to Blow Up the Fed.” He stated: “Anybody who cares to read the 1978 Humphrey Hawkins law will know that the Fed is directed by Congress to seek full employment and then zero inflation. Not 2 percent, but zero. Yet going back...
One surprising news was followed by another surprising news. First, Trump told the world about his plan to keep increasing tariffs on Mexico, defying his own party. Then, no hint of relief had come regarding the China trade dispute. Finally, we have the Fed...
Gold was riding high Monday on bad news regarding the US economy, causing stocks to fall and Wall Street traders to pile into bullion.
June 5, 2019
It was only a week ago that I was opining that there was nothing ominous in the technical picture for gold and silver that was altering my bullish stance; RSI and MACD were trending up and price was stubbornly refusing to yield to the myriad of bullion bank attacks...
Given the torrid advance in gold (GLD [SPDR Gold Shares]) and the leveraged miner ETFs (NUGT [Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 3x]/JNUG [Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 3x]), it is of note that RSI readings have screamed northward to the point...
An inverted yield curve has historically been the most accurate indicator of an impending or concurrent recession. The inversion during late 2006 and most of 2007 is a good example. Studies have shown that curve inversions precede a recession anywhere from 6 months...
First, I want to begin this article by thanking all those who read my articles for the amazing outpouring of support and prayers for my wife who is recovering from a freak accident. So, with her sleeping right now, I thought I would pen another article to at least...
June 4, 2019
Given the torrid advance in gold (GLD) and the leveraged miner ETF’s (NUGT/JNUG), it is of note that RSI readings have screamed northward to the point where I don’t think I can recall a shift in momentum quite this quickly or with such torque.
We believe the current price rotation is just the beginning of something much bigger. Over the past 16+ months, we've been calling these tops and bottoms many months in advance. In February/March 2018, we called the bottom and initiated a call that the US stock...
The U.S. yield curve has inverted again, and it has done so to the widest level since 2007. How much of a reason to worry is that actually? A sky-is-falling moment lurking ahead? If so, what chance of saving us does gold have?
The powerful sell signals I have in play for US stock markets show no signs of abating.
Gold has consolidated on yesterday’s gains and is marginally higher as risk aversion creeps back into markets. Gold rose 1.5% yesterday to its highest level in more than three months.
The Precious Metals sector has broken strongly higher in recent days, with silver breaking out of its downtrend just yesterday, when the fundamental reason for this move emerged – the Fed has let it be known, via the St Louis Fed governor, that they are going to...
June 3, 2019
US leaders are demanding the rest of the world recognize economic sanctions and stop buying Iranian oil. The U.K., Germany, France, Russia, China, and India are among the nations who don’t fully support the sanctions and would rather not pay higher prices for oil...
Gold’s $30 run-up over the last two sessions is the sharpest we’ve seen in a while. Was it just a knee-jerk reaction to continuing weakness in U.S. stocks? Probably. But we’ll keep a close eye on it nevertheless, since gold sentiment is so negative, sometimes...
While I will let the “real” analysts debate about how we should handle our trade deal regarding China, I am only here to discuss the sentiment around the China deal. This past week, I have seen many posts like this one:
We have been discussing the impossibility of China nuking the Treasury bond market. We covered a list of challenges China would face. Then last week we showed that there cannot be such a thing as a bond vigilante in an irredeemable currency. Now we want to explore a...
Industrials below we can see that on Friday it broke down from a Head-and-Shoulders top that had been forming since February, and the longer-term 5-year chart for the S&P500 index lower down the page makes clear that a giant top started to form with the January...
Last week, I discussed simple criteria to determine if the market had shifted to an intermediate trend, and concluded that only IWM fitted the bill at that time! This week, all four indexes have now crossed and closed below their 50-wk MAs.
June 2, 2019
Large precious metals speculators lowered their bullish net positions in the gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.
