After declining from 2940 to 2711 in its biggest correction since January, SPX rallied to 2817 before reversing and closing the week at 2768 -- all this in the span of three weeks. The question which is on every analyst’s mind is: “Has the bear market started?”
Gold Editorials & Commentary
October 21, 2018
Large precious metals speculators strongly lifted their net positions in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.
Through the turn of the twentieth century, one of the so-called "common coins" here in Monaco was the 100 Franc Gold piece depicting the image of then Prince Albert Honoré Charles Grimaldi. Albert I was not as nearly beloved by his Monégasque subjects as is today's...
Extreme volatility (Dow Jones 2% Days) continues being a major feature in the market; Tuesday of this week saw the Dow Jones close 2.17% above the previous day’s close. Yes this was a big daily gain, but big daily percentage gains are events usually seen in bear...
October 20, 2018
In the last edition of the Market Overview, we have discussed whether gold investors should worry about the yield curve. Or should they keep their fingers crossed for its inversion? We concluded that not necessarily, as its predictive power has weakened and it doesn...
The bulls have worked hard since August to establish an intermediate-term bottom for gold. While they have largely succeeded in doing so, there is a reason for their failure to take advantage of record short interest and launch gold to higher levels. That reason is...
October 19, 2018
After falling from 1369 to 1167 in just four months, gold is attempting to rally now, having risen to a high of 1237 recently. But as I shared in my previous article: “There is significant resistance ahead that could stall gold’s rally, most notably 1244, the 38.2%...
The sentiment shift is still subtle, but it’s both real and widespread. After a few years of being ignored and/or dismissed as basically useless, gold is cool again, attracting positive comments in the media and increasing accumulation by big investors.
The gold miners’ stocks have been largely ignored and neglected for years. Speculators and investors wanted little to do with them for various reasons. But that apathetic sentiment is finally starting to shift thanks to last week’s stock-market plunge. Capital is...
It was supposed to make gold rally. We mean, of course, the quantitative tightening. But one year after it started, the yellow metal still does not shine. We invite you to read our detailed analysis of the Fed’s balance sheet unwind and find out what does it imply...
It’s no secret that gold mining stocks are historically cheap and have been for several years. Traditional metrics like price to cash flow and price to book value showed that gold stocks in late 2015 were at arguably their cheapest points since the start of the bull...
Here is our Friday digest of the important news, commentary, charts and videos we were informed by this week including our special podcast on Direct Access Gold.
October 18, 2018
Until the 1970s, all recorded history showed that bond yields were tied to the general price level, not the rate of price inflation as commonly believed. However, since then, the statistics say this is no longer the case, and bond yields are increasingly influenced...
For the first time in months, Fido the Wonder Dog has been in my office and at the foot of my bed 24/7 for the past few days giving me great solace that the current advance in precious metals prices is here to stay. Gone are his nervous tics every time my chair...
Predicting the end of the world, physical or financial, is seldom helpful. If the prediction is correct, how do you profit from the insight? If the prediction is wrong and the “end of the world” is delayed (typical), you lose credibility.
“Policy would need to become modestly restrictive for a time.” This is the key quote from the recent FOMC minutes. This is not a reason for gold’s joy.
– Do you own gold in the safest way possible? Do you own gold via an exchange traded fund, a digital gold provider or another form of pooled gold?
For many years, I have been a staunch bull. In fact, many commenters and contributors on Seeking Alpha and MarketWatch were quite vocal regarding how they thought I was crazy back in 2016 for expecting the market to go from 1800 to over 2600SPX, and potentially up...
October 17, 2018
You’ve likely seen the reports: A whopping 44 percent of Americans wouldn’t be able to afford a $400 emergency expense without borrowing it or selling something. That’s according to the Federal Reserve’s findings in 2017. And earlier this year, financial services...
The mainstream media is shocked today to report that the U.S. federal deficit increased to $779B in fiscal 2018. This despite the fact that all of this was projected back in February.
When the market, represented by SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:GLD), broke down below 117.40, and then followed below the next support in the 114 region, we were hyper-focused on the 109 region. Thus far, that is where GLD has bottomed out (in overnight action). From...
Is another “Great Depression” on the horizon? It would be easier to dismiss these words from Nouriel Roubini, Marc Faber or other doom-and-gloom prognosticators. Coming from Christine Lagarde’s team, though, they take on a new dimension of scary.
October 16, 2018
When asked about the dominant theme for the markets last January, I said that the one thing I looked forward to was a return of "VOLATILITY" as the Federal Reserve Board moved to "normalize" the interest rate structure, now commonly referred to as quantitative...
With a technical double bottom pattern as a launchpad, gold continues to move solidly higher while global stock markets get smashed. What comes next for these key markets and what are the main factors at play?
The oil price is rising due to the upcoming restrictions on the sale of Iranian oil - the second of a two-part set of sanctions imposed on the Middle Eastern power following the Trump Administration’s decision in May to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement,...
SPX continued losses. CPI slowed down. IMF cut its projection of global growth. What does it all imply for the gold market?
SPX continued losses. CPI slowed down. IMF cut its projection of global growth. What does it all imply for the gold market?
Poland raised its gold holdings to the highest in at least 35 years, data from the International Monetary Fund showed on Monday. The country increased its holdings by 4.4 tonnes from August to about 117 tonnes in September, a record, according to data going back to...
I am certain of death. I am certain of taxes. And, I am certain of tax reform. (Sorry, that was an old tax attorney joke.) However, non-linear financial markets never lend themselves to certainty. Rather, the best we can do is look for clues that provide us with...
October 15, 2018
According to the 2018 edition of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, October has been a “great” time to buy. Once ranked last in terms of stock performance, the 10th month has delivered relatively average returns since 1950. What makes it so attractive is that it’s followed...
