There is a widespread and growing feeling that financial markets are slipping towards another crisis of some sort. In this article I argue that we are in the eye of a financial storm…that it will blow again from the direction of the advanced economies -- and that...
Gold Editorials & Commentary
March 31, 2016
In that deservedly-famous 2006 CNBC debate between Peter Schiff and economist Arthur Laffer (in which the latter manages to be both arrogant and wrong about literally everything), Laffer celebrates the fact that "we are outsourcing our monetary policy to China."
March 30, 2016
While we were watching intently to see if the market was going to take advantage of a further bullish set up this past week, it broke support, making it clear that we have likely topped in wave i off the recent lows. However, I have to note that silver has a very...
The start of baseball season is still several days away, but a recent survey conducted by Bank of America Merrill Lynch found that 59 percent of U.S. fund managers believe the current stretch of economic growth is in its “final innings.” This is the highest reading...
Gold is up over 15% this year so far, while the gold stocks (per XAU index) have risen over 50%. But investors are skeptical about this year's gold rally…and that's a good thing. For the past several years, we have seen strong rallies in gold and gold stocks early...
Some positive developments for gold at the COMEX need to be noted. Since January 29th Open Interest surged 137,249 contracts (Blue Plot) without retarding the advance in the price of gold (Red Plot) as much as it would have in the past.
BlackRock Inc. has joined Pacific Investment Management Co. (PIMCO) in recommending inflation-linked bonds and gold, warning costs are poised to pick up and there is a growing risk of inflation.
March 29, 2016
Last week began the blackout period for companies buying back their own shares, as we are nearing the end of a quarter, when stock buybacks are put on hold. It also began the bust of the stock market’s recent rally.
Gold continues to track the sideways action of the US dollar against the Japanese yen, ahead of Friday’s important US jobs report. Investors, who focus only on the USDX are focusing mainly on the action of one risk-on currency (the dollar) against another (the euro...
Gold did not accomplish very much in yesterday’s day session, or in the overnight session. On the attached Daily Gold Chart, yesterday’s low appears to have been about 1206. In the overnight session, we reached a high of 1224.70.
Stock markets rebounded solidly from their lows of February 11th, 2016, making new multi-month highs, earlier last week. The SPX rescinded 0.7% by the end of last week. These market gains can be attributed to the very bullish decisions of the European Central Bank (...
The best performing precious metal for the week was platinum, however still down -2.35 percent. Price action was driven by increased auto demand in the European Union, reports Market Realist, which rose 14 percent in February. Platinum and palladium is used in the...
March 28, 2016
"The rally you never sell"! This is a topic Jim and I have spoken of…and just recently discussed in our latest recorded chat. This is also a topic very fitting to start off with for our "gold subscribers," because of where we are economically and financially on a...
Goldman Sachs has been predicting the demise of gold for the past few years. Back in July of 2015, Jeff Currie (Global Head of Commodities Research at the investment firm) went on record predicting the price of the yellow metal would fall below $1,000 per ounce by...
In 1980 Ronald Reagan spoke about the Misery Index. An economist had added the inflation rate to the unemployment rate, called it the Misery Index…and used it to indicate the social costs and economic difficulty for the middle-class.
Today I would like to show you some more charts on some if the different stock market indices we looked at in the last Weekend Report. Last weekend we looked at a lot of the bull market uptrend channels that are still in place since the 2009 crash low.
“After Friday’s action, SPX looks poised for a minor pull-back. That may be all we get unless we can retrace below 2020, in which case a more important top may be in place.”
Germany started WWII on a high note, bypassing the defences of the Maginot line and sweeping across France in their stunning Blitzkrieg offensive. They seemed to be invincible, but only four years later after disastrous campaigns in Africa and in Russia, they were...
March 27, 2016
Despite gold's recent selloff, I feel increasingly comfortable with our short-term (one-year) and our long-term (five-to-seven year) forecast of the future price of gold. Indeed, by this time next year, gold's price could be challenging or even surpassing the yellow...
Since 2011, the United States exported the majority of its gold to only four countries. In the past five years, the U.S. exported a total of 1,961 metric tons (mt) of gold to these four countries, which accounted for 68% of the total 2,876 mt.
A bit of a rest week for markets as they are near resistance levels, but not falling…which so far says we are setting up for a breakout higher. However, that can change. Friday saw the S&P500 weak early in the day…but the market ended up closing on the highs of...
Boring is how I’d describe the stock market last week. The last day of extreme market volatility (Dow Jones 2% day) occurred on March 1st and we haven’t seen a day of extreme market breadth (NYSE 70% A-D Day) since January 29th. However a pause of a few months is...
A purposeful play on words, that title: Gold's 1240-1280 resistance zone not being futile means that 'tis working, repelling price from successfully clearing above it. In other words, once resistance is futile, Gold will be up into the 1300s -- or at least dealing...
March 26, 2016
Well, it looks like I sort of called it last week. Now, where are we this week…and more importantly, where are we headed? As this week’s chart shows, it’s basically been a bummer last week. One day up but the rest down. This has caused the technical picture to...
Several days ago, IM Vronsky wrote that the big banks are in deep trouble. Since the financial reporting of these companies leave out much of the data necessary to evaluate these companies, he pointed to the price history (and technicals) of several bank stocks.
Gold and gold stocks finally showed a bit of weakness during the holiday shortened week. Gold had its biggest weekly loss in months, losing 3% to $1217/oz, while the miners (GDX, GDXJ) declined about 5%. Silver lost 4%. If weakness in Gold and gold stocks continues...
Ever since beginning the ‘Macrosom‘ theme in July (and updating it here), NFTRH has been managing macro changes that would positively affect the gold sector, and quite possibly have a negative effect on broad stock markets.
March 25, 2016
Technical Analysis of The Markets Via Videos.
The red-hot gold stocks have spent most of March in consolidation mode, grinding sideways near their 2016 highs. Interestingly this month’s rally pause is par for the course seasonally in gold-stock bull markets. Like gold itself, this sector tends to slump to a...
Gold sector is on a new major buy signal. Cycle is up but at levels of previous tops. COT data remains in bear market values and is now at levels of previous tops.Silver is on a long-term sell signal and investors should be in cash or short. Short-term is on sell...
