THE ROSEN MARKET TIMING LETTER

SPECIALIZING IN

PRECIOUS METALS – FOREX - STOCK INDICES - COMMODITIES

“Time is more important than price; when time is up price will reverse.”
W.D.Gann

RONALD L. ROSEN
ALISTAIR GILBERT

OCTOBER IS KNOWN AS THE MONTH OF THE MONSTER MARKET MASH

Yes, and one of our major defects is, under stress we forget that the month of October is traditionally the month that monster smashes occur in the stock market.

When the smash is truly monstrous we tend to forget everything but what is happening to the market at the moment. We also forget that a smash in the month of October is usually followed by a vicious recovery.

October market smashes do not occur with regularity every year. However, there is a pattern in the market that is repeating with an eerie similarity. It is a timing pattern so similar that the timing is identical within one month and yet 30 years apart!

2. “When a commodity advances into new territory or to prices which it has not reached for months or years, it shows that the force or driving power is working in that direction. It is the same principle as any other force or driving power which has been restrained and breaks out. The longer the time that elapses between the breaking into new territory, the greater the move you can expect, because the accumulative energy over a long period naturally will produce a larger movement than if it only accumulated during a short period of time.”

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“The 30 year commodity cycle is the most important cycle.”

W. D. Gann

A Commodity Super Cycle has been in existence for over 100 years. The peaks have occurred 30 years apart. These cycles began after the Federal Reserve System and the Internal Revenue System were created in 1913. The Federal Reserve System and the Internal Revenue System are not only still in existence but have grown larger every year since 1913. Since they are still here and larger than ever it is highly probable that the Commodity Super Cycles are still in place. Let’s take another look at the cycles I am referring to.

The top or peak of the first commodity “Super-Cycle” occurred in 1920. This was seven years after the Federal Reserve System was established. The tops occurred in 1920, 1950, and 1980, and the current cycle is on course to peak in 2010. From here on out the action should be fast and furious right up to the top. We know that the peak of the last gold bull market occurred in January 1980. That was the peak in Super-Cycle III. It appears that the current bull market in gold has a high probability of peaking with the 30 year Super-Cycle IV.

Gold bullion broke out above a 4 year old high of $192.00 in February 1978. Ten months later in November 1978 gold bullion went below the breakout point of $192.00. Two months later gold made a new high at $258.00. That was followed by a corrective low in April 1979 that bottomed at $231.80. Nine months later, in the month of January 1980, gold bullion reached a high of $850.00.

Gold bullion broke out above a 28 year old high of $850.00 in the month of January 2008. This was 30 years after gold broke out to a new high in February 1978. Ten months later, in this month, October 2008, gold appears to have bottomed below the 28 year old high of $850.00. This is 30 years after gold bullion bottomed below the breakout level in the month of November 1978. If this 30 year pattern is to continue there must be a move to a new high for gold in December 2008. The following charts of gold show that a Delta medium # 8 high is due to arrive on December 10, 2008. The standard deviation for arrival of Delta medium # 8 high is 12/13 to 12/17. If there is a new high for gold in December 2008 we can assume that Delta Long Term # 3 low arrived in October 2008. There are several trading days left in October. Therefore, lower lows may still occur.

GOLD MONTHLY 2008

“The following chart of gold shows that a Delta medium # 8 high is due to arrive on December 10, 2008. The standard deviation for arrival of Delta medium # 8 high is 12/3 to 12/17. If there is a new high for gold in December 2008 we can assume that Delta Long Term # 3 low arrived in October 2008. There are several trading days left in October so lower lows may still occur.”

GOLD DAILY

If the timing patterns I have outlined that are 30 years apart fail to continue repeating closely we may be involved with a prolonged bull market in gold. We won’t have long to wait before we know if the timing patterns will continue.

GOLD WEEKLY

In a very short period of time we shall find out if Mr. Gann is correct when he wrote that, “The 30 year commodity cycle is the most important cycle.” Two to three months is not that long to wait for an answer of this importance.

If the timing pattern is going to continue we should have the ultimate top in January/ February 2010.

If you are an investor or an active trader who would like to know the probable time for the turning points on gold, silver, the HUI gold share index, crude oil and various other indices:

Disclaimer: The contents of this letter represent the opinions of Ronald L. Rosen and Alistair Gilbert Nothing contained herein is intended as investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions, and you should not rely on it as such. Ronald L. Rosen and Alistair Gilbert are not registered investment advisors. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and using methods believed to be reliable, but Ronald L. Rosen and Alistair Gilbert cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of your reliance on this analysis and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities. Do your own due diligence regarding personal investment decisions.