Gold’s Resurgence: Reaching Key Levels and Setting Up for Upside

NEW YORK (August 29)Gold continued its advance today off the recent swing low of 1,885 as it rallies above Monday’s 1,926 trend high to reach the 50% retracement at 1,936. Today’s high is 1,938 at the time of this writing. Moreover, gold is set to close strong, in the top 25% of the day’s price range. It also broke out above the 34-Day EMA today, which had been acting as a resistance area the past few days.

Weekly Bullish Reversal Awaits Daily Close Confirmation

A bullish reversal on the weekly chart triggered last week on a rally above the prior week’s high of 1,916. However, we have not yet seen a daily close above that high to confirm the breakout. The weekly breakout confirms today on a daily close above that high. Confirmation of the weekly breakout increases the chance for a continuation higher in the near term.

Upside Targets Include Internal Downtrend Line and Fibonacci Level

Next levels to watch for gold on the upside are the internal downtrend line, now around 1,043, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1,948. Also, a prior weekly high is at 1,947. Once there is a daily close above the downtrend gold will have satisfied milestone that increases the chance for an eventual continuation higher.

Long-term Strength Linked to Surpassing Swing High at 1,987

Subsequently, an important price level to watch for further confirmation of strength for the longer term is the swing high of 1,987. A daily close above that level will provide further evidence for a continuation of the larger dominant uptrend. That may also trigger additional demand in gold as buyers anticipate an eventual breakout to new highs.

Since gold has broken back above the 34-Day EMA it would be a stronger sign during pullbacks if that line acted as support, as it was previously resistance. The 34-Day line is currently at 1,925. Further, a decline below today’s low of 1,914 should see support at or above the 200-Day EMA to sustain a short-term bullish outlook.

Prior Rally Suggests Potential Rise to 1,979 Levels

Measuring the prior rally from the June 29 bottom of 1,893 shows gold advanced by 5.0% in 15 days. A similar advance for the current rally would put gold around 1,979. That is just below the July 20 swing high of 1,987.

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