Top 5 Economic Calendar Events September 11 – 18

New York (Sept 9)  US political developments will continue to be an important focus as Congress continues to debate the debt ceiling.

Progress surrounding tax reform will also have an important influence during the week.

After this week’s ECB policy meeting, markets will continue to monitor comments from ECB officials closely as debate surrounding October’s policy options continues.

There should be no comments from Federal Reserve officials during the week ahead of the FOMC policy statement the following week.

There is a possibility that G20 officials will start to make comments surrounding the need for stability given the recent spike in volatility.

Geo-political issues will remain a key focus with a further focus on North Korea, especially if there are further missile tests during the week.

1. US consumer prices

The latest US CPI data will be released on Thursday September 14th at 08.30 ET.

The CPI data could have an impact on the Federal Reserve policy decision and statement, although the most likely outcome is that there will be no change in interest rates at the latest meeting.

The inflation data will, however, have an important impact on market expectations given concerns over low inflation within the Fed.

Another low reading for the CPI print would reinforce concerns that inflation will continue to run below target.

Market expectations of further interest rate increases would continue to diminish and the more dovish members of the FOMC committee would also be in a stronger position to resist further rate hikes.

A stronger than expected reading, however, would ease underlying concerns over low inflation, especially as the dollar decline seen this year will have a significant impact in raising inflation rates over the next few months.

There is the potential for some upward pressure on prices due to the impact of hurricane Harvey on gasoline prices, although the spike in prices was short-lived.

2. Bank of England monetary policy meeting

The latest Bank of England policy decision will be announced on Thursday September 14th at 05.00 ET.

At this meeting, there will be no updated inflation report and bank Governor Carney will not be holding a press conference after the event.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is more likely to change interest rates when there is a new inflation report and a rate change looks unlikely.

The overall tone of the statement will, however, be important and provide important insights into future policy.

While UK data releases have been mixed, there has been some further evidence that slack in the economy is diminishing further, especially with further gains in employment.

In this context, the MPC will be concerned that underlying inflation could start to move significantly higher by early next year as domestic pressures intensify.

The vote split will be important to see whether any members have switched camp and advocated a rate increase.

3. US retail sales

The latest US retail sales report is due for release on Friday September 15th at 08.30 ET.

The July retail sales data was stronger than expected and there was an upward revision to June which underpinned confidence in the outlook.

Markets will be looking to assess whether the more positive trend has been sustained.

Measures of consumer confidence have remained generally buoyant which should underpin spending.

The evidence, however, suggests that auto sales have been weak on the month which will hold back overall sales.

There is liable to be some impact on sales from hurricane Harvey with a sharp decline in sales in the Houston area late in the month.

The latest New York Empire manufacturing survey will also be released on Friday with the JOLTS job-openings data due on Tuesday.

4. Swiss National Bank policy meeting

The Swiss National Bank will announce its latest monetary policy decision on Thursday September 14th at 03.30 ET.

There is a strong probability that the National Bank will leave interest rates on hold at the latest policy meeting with the repo rate target at -0.75%.

The statement from the bank will still be important with markets looking for any hints surrounding future policy and when the bank might consider a move to remove some of the policy accommodation.

Nevertheless, the most likely outcome is that the bank will hold the line and make no significant comments until the ECB tapers its bond purchases.

5. UK Consumer prices

 The UK Consumer prices (CPI) inflation reading will be released on Tuesday September 12th at 04.30 ET.

The latest inflation data is likely to come too late to have a direct impact on the latest Bank of England policy decision.

The data will, however, be important for market sentiment with speculation surrounding a rate increase at the November meeting if there is a stronger than expected release.

In particular, markets will be attempting to discern whether there has been an increase in domestic inflationary pressures. Any evidence of an increase would also increase pressure for the Bank of England to tighten policy.

The latest labour-market data will be released on Wednesday with the main focus on average earnings.

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