Elliott Wave Counts For Gold, S&P500 And GDX

December 20, 2016

Gold

Short-Term Update

After reaching a high of 1144.10 in yesterday’s day session, gold has moved lower in the overnight session reaching 1131.10 at the time that this post was being written.

We are now falling in our final wave *v* drop.

On the Intraday Chart it does NOT look like this drop is complete so we expect a small rally, which could now be complete at the 1144.10 high, which should be followed by one more drop to below the 1124.50 low to complete all of wave *v* and .c. and -ii-.

Our current count now lines up with what is happening in the USDX.

We plan to add to our long gold positions on this next drop, and will add at 1120.00.

Upon completion of wave -ii- we expect a very sharp rally in wave –iii-. We will provide projections for the end of wave -iii- when we are sure that wave -ii- is complete.

Our 78.6% retracement level is 1116.50. We would not want to see wave -ii- fall below this level.

In the unlikely event that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 1124.50 low, a break above the 1160.00 level now would could this thinking, and that our expected wave -iii- rally is underway.

Remember that in EWave Theory the psychology of the Investor, in this case, is much more depressing then when gold was at its 1045 low, as everyone now believes that gold is going to zero with the USDX going to 1000.00. We believe that major turn in gold and the USDX is not the far away and almost everyone will be surprised, except us!

Longer-Term Update

Gold has still not completed its wave -ii- correction. The Weekly Gold Chart has been updated to reflect our current count.

Active Trading Positions: Long 30 positions, with puts at 1250.00, and plan to add at 1120.00!

S&P500

Short-Term Update

The S&P500 was up a little in yesterday’s day session and in the overnight session the S&P Futures are up about 7 points, at the time that this Post was being written.

The S&P may now be showing signs of the end of wave -iii-, as we are pretty close to our projected high of 2285.92. We will need to give this market another day before we confirm that wave -iv- lower has begun.

Projection points do not always work out so we need to warn that we have satisfied all of the minimum requirements for a completed wave -iii- rally at the current high. Wave -iv- could then start at any time. When wave -iv- begins it could take a number of weeks to unfold.

The final top in the S&P is still likely to occur early in 2017.                                                                              

Long-Term Update

Wave (v) has become a diagonal triangle. We could now be complete all of wave .c. of -iii- at the 2214.81 high. Upon completion of wave -iii-, we expect a wave -iv- drop followed by a wave -v- rally.

Active Trading Positions: Flat!

GDX

Short-Term Update

The GDX was almost unchanged yesterday’s action, but based on what gold is currently doing we are expecting that the GDX will likely satisfy the minimum requirements for a completed wave c and all of wave 2 today as we drop below the 18.68 low.  

Our 78.6% retracement level is 16.55. We need to stay above that level, for our current analysis to remain valid.

The current count for the GDX also aligns perfectly now with gold, silver and the UDSX.

Our updated count for wave 2 is:

a = 25.17;

b = 28.56;

c:

(i) = 22.50;

(ii) = 25.93;

(iii) = 20.14;

(iv) = 21.74, if complete;

(v) = 18.68, if complete to complete all of wave c and wave 2.

Long-Term Update

We now believe that all of wave 1 ended at 31.79 and that wave 2 has now almost complete.  

Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!

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India and the U.S. trump Italy as top gold jewelry exporters.