Gold Cycle Outlook: Cautiously Bullish

July 27, 2017

I am cautiously bullish with today’s new high in gold and GDX on day 13. Silver also made a new high on day 12 but is still lagging gold out of the recent low. Note that I have used GLD and SLV in my charts today as the price prints for gold and silver on Stockcharts were bogus once again.

Why cautiously bullish? During the long Bear from the secondary high in 2012, almost every Failed Gold Trading Cycle topped on day 10 or earlier. There were a couple that topped on day 11 and one on day 12 as I recall but day 12 was the longest uptrend we saw into a failed Trading Cycle.  That said, I am still cautious as my charts will show that PM’s still have much work to do to break out of this sideways pattern that they have been in for much of 2017.

Silver, which has already broken below its Dec 2016 YCL does give me some concern here.  The Gold/Silver Ratio, as both Plunger and I have posted on, may be indicating that Credit Markets are nervous about something…

 

 

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Surf City is a pseudonym for a 60-year-old retired Information Technology Executive and Software start-up Entrepreneur living near the beach in California.   He has been an active investor and trader since the mid-1980s. Analytical by nature, his sound investments over the years allowed him to retire at a relatively early age of 55. In addition to the standard Technical Analysis tools of Edwards and Magee, Surf is a disciple of Walter Bressert’s Cycle Methodology and Stan Weinstein’s Stage 4 Market analysis.  Surf combines these skills to develop his unique “Cycle Price Channels.”  Some call them “Surf’s ForkCycles.

Due primarily to the California Gold Rush, San Francisco’s population exploded from 1,000 to 100,000 in only two years.