Gold Forecast: Bulls Fail To Make Significant Progress

April 13, 2015

Gold Price ForecastGold closed March in bearish fashion and in spite of some strength since then it has failed to make any significant progress in either direction. The weekly close was weak and left gold vulnerable to any kind of selling pressure.

Gold has shown a little bit more strength in the last week than we expected but regular readers have noticed how much noise there can be in day today even week to week movements and yet the gold price can still meander in what appears at first sight to be completely randomly but actually stays within a clearly defined long term fractal pattern.

Regular readers will know we have been following this large fractal pattern with much success for nearly four months. Whilst many analysts have changed their minds week by week we have consistently maintained our gold forecast of lower lows to come and that the last few months have been nothing more than a consolidation of a large bear market. In our opinion it is time for the bear market to continue after a healthy consolidation.

As we mentioned earlier, the close of March was not positive for gold, it triggered a significant bearish monthly continuation pattern that would be missed by most conventional analysis which tends not to focus on multiple time frames like we do.

We spent a great deal of this weekend analysing multiple fractal patterns over multiple time frames to ensure our forecast reflected the most logical and likely outcome. We found very little evidence at this stage that a new bull phase has begun so for those who think we are perpetual bears we are not; we are realists and base our forecasts not on what we would like to happen but rather on what we can see in front of us.

As a long term bull there would be nothing nicer than to be able to post optimistic forecasts declaring the bottom is in but we simply can’t at this stage. However we do believe that we are heading towards an end of this bear phase in terms of our larger monthly fractal patterns. For gold to maintain its multi decade bull market which we have always maintained is where we are it will soon have to begin to bottom.

Our longer term forecasts indicate the bottom should occur in the next few months and at a lower price but should the price go lower and stay lower then this would alter our longer term forecasts from a long term bull market consolidation to the end of the gold bull. However all our analysis of the 2011 top says that whilst gold was over bought it was at no point in any kind of blow top that would cause a long term decline, in fact if anything gold has barely touched the consciousness of the vast majority of the public.  

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To view our unique multi-timeframe gold price forecasts visit us at: http://www.kenticehurst.com/forecasts

Ken Ticehurst been a gold trader for over a decade and is currently developing a unique gold price forecasting system using fractal analysis and unique algorithms. He creates forecasts using different patterns that occur over daily, weekly and monthly time frames. In his view news does not move prices over the long-term, but rather that prices move news over the long-term. Human nature demands an explanation for every price move. It is his philosophy that day to day and even week to week moves are just noise disguising the long-term trends.
 
Ticehurst has a BSc.(Hons.) in Product Design from the University of the West of London with a commercial background in data analysis and research. Ken has been involved in markets as diverse as classic cars, construction and real estate.  He has seen bubbles grow and deflate time and again, subsequently giving birth to his galvanizing interest in the underlying sentiment that drives the fear and greed phases.  Ken’s website is:  http://www.kenticehurst.com

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