Gold Forecast: One Swallow Does Not A Summer Make

March 30, 2015

gold price forecastA positive week for gold last week…but still just about within our forecast range on a closing basis, as we have mentioned before we expected volatility and nothing within the last few weeks has altered our longer term forecasts. The month of January closes on Tuesday, this for us is a significant event and we see a great deal of the recent volatility being as a result of gold needing to make a significant end of month close either confirming it is in a downtrend or showing us it is potentially trying to change trend.

USD gold forecast

It is amazing how quickly the gold bulls stick their heads above the parapet and declare victory before the dust has even settled. We have been hovering around $1200 for what seems a lifetime which begs the question, why are we at these valuations and not at £2000 like so many of the bulls have been forecasting over the last couple of years.

The answer is that gold is simply not as attractive to the public as the bulls think or the fundamentals warrant and it doesn’t matter what we want these are the simple facts. Nothing has materially changed in the gold market, no news or light bulb moment has altered the structure of the market since the pessimism that was so pervasive a few weeks ago.

Like politicians many analysts tend to flip flop in their opinions simply because they have no underlying philosophy or set of rules. There is simply no structure to fall back on as the noise dominates their analysis rather than something more substantive.  

There is no doubt that at some point the bulls will be right and it may well be now but in our opinion this is too early to call, we would love to be able to publish more optimistic forecasts that would get the juices going but we can’t, probability says that we are still in a prolonged downtrend.

As a forecaster who uses logic and mathematics it would seem impossible to be able to spot a bottom and a significant multi-year change of trend when the price has barely moved by a few percentage points. All markets are filled with noise that seems to create randomness but if you tune out the noise and focus on the structure of the market you get a completely different picture.

 As well as price there is also time, barely two weeks ago the market was full of doom and foreboding, gold was oversold and heading for a big fall. Now today there is almost euphoria, whereas our analysis says that gold has merely become less oversold on a short term basis less bearish but not bullish. After a three year bear market any bottom will either be a capitulation our preferred outcome or it will turn like an oil tanker slow and methodical.

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To view our unique multi-timeframe gold price forecasts visit us at: http://www.kenticehurst.com/forecasts

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Ken Ticehurst been a gold trader for over a decade and is currently developing a unique gold price forecasting system using fractal analysis and unique algorithms. He creates forecasts using different patterns that occur over daily, weekly and monthly time frames. In his view news does not move prices over the long-term, but rather that prices move news over the long-term. Human nature demands an explanation for every price move. It is his philosophy that day to day and even week to week moves are just noise disguising the long-term trends.
 
Ticehurst has a BSc.(Hons.) in Product Design from the University of the West of London with a commercial background in data analysis and research. Ken has been involved in markets as diverse as classic cars, construction and real estate.  He has seen bubbles grow and deflate time and again, subsequently giving birth to his galvanizing interest in the underlying sentiment that drives the fear and greed phases.  Ken’s website is:  http://www.kenticehurst.com

In the Aztec language the name for gold is teocuitlatl which means "excrement of the gods."
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