Just The Facts And Nothing But…But What Are The Facts?

“When you stretch the truth, watch out for the snapback.”

~Bill Copeland

No one ever mentions the 100’s of billions of dollars in fines and penalties doled out to the biggest banks all over America and Europe, on an almost daily basis and yet without even one single indictment and of course no prosecutions.  WHAT GIVES? However, even if there were indictments and heavy fines levied against the criminal banks it would be us, the private American taxpayer, who would end up paying the fines as the government would just be giving them counterfeit money to keep all the criminals alive and well (keeping their mouths shut) and continuing to do the bidding of the crooks in Congress. But of course if there were any criminal charges brought, they would all be singing like canaries in an effort to save their own individual hides and stay out of jail.

Last week brought news that five "too-big-to-fail" banks were expected to plead guilty to antitrust felony charges but once again no personal charges were laid. What gives?

JANET YELLEN

Fed Chair Janet Yellen admitted:  “Of course, the outlook for the economy, as always, is highly uncertain. I am describing the outlook that I see as most likely, but based on many years of making economic projections, I can assure you that any specific projection I write down will turn out to be wrong, perhaps markedly so. For many reasons, output and job growth over the next few years could prove to be stronger, and inflation higher, than I expect; correspondingly, employment could grow more slowly, and inflation could remain undesirably low.” How is that for something to hang your hat on? Did we ever see these types of projections before made by a FED chairman?      

Instead of a market selloff, stocks ended mixed and flat again on Thursday, May 21st. I continue to watch for a top here in the face of ever increasing serious market manipulation. Naturally, all the big guys keep rolling in the dough and since there are no charges against any individuals, there are also only tight lips. Although nobody wants to see a great party come to an end, THE LAWS OF NATURE tell us that even the best parties must all eventually come to an end!

On a purely technical basis, the market patterns I have been watching can be counted as having been completed on Thursday May 21st so it’s more than likely that the stock market top is just about in. Thursday's internals were very weak. However, given the level of manipulation of world markets that is going on, it is still possible that the conglomeration of government approved thieves will generate some variant pattern that will emerge so that stocks can continue to climb further, regardless of what the phony statistics coming out of Washington and Dragi say.  However, there is a major “Bradley Model” turn date in early June which could then become a candidate target for the top all of which would allow for another 200 point rally in the Industrials before that long awaited top arrives. Should the government’s cabal of manipulators want (or need) to extend a bit further, even though the charts argue that the top is imminent, new sell signals in the key trend-finder indicators will confirm when an important top finally has arrived. Stocks remain way overbought. Stay tuned; sell into sharp rallies and build your cash in preparation of the coming major bear market. Trying to pick exact tops and bottoms is a fool’s game especially in a manipulated market. So be careful.

There was also a small change in the McClellan Oscillator again Thursday, suggesting a large price move is likely coming over the next few days.

The Industrials and S&P 500 are finishing a Rising Bearish Wedge from October 2014, and in the most bullish case are about 90 percent of the way through the final wave {e} up for this five wave pattern, which may even have been fully complete on Thursday afternoon. What is interesting about the Rising Bearish Wedge from October 2014 is that it provides us with an initial downside price target objective decline to 16,000 - the first leg of what would become a massive drop in stock prices, which I believe will include a stock market crash later this year. A decisive decline below 17,750 would suggest that the Rising Bearish Wedge is finished and that a powerful decline has started.

GOLD

Gold fell mildly on Thursday, May 21st, while still inside wave {3} up. Gold and mining stocks were oversold on Thursday. It looks as if wave {iv} down of a five wave up move for Wave {3} up has been completed, and the next wave is {v} up. In precious metals, often times wave fives will be the most dramatic of the “V” (5th) wave.

Gold looks to have finished a Declining Wedge since May 2013. These patterns are termination bottom patterns, and it means Gold is headed much higher during the last 8 months of 2015, headed toward a minimum of 1,425 by year end. It means that Gold could see a 15 to 20 percent additional rise later this year or early next year. This means large degree Wave (3) up has probably started.

MINING STOCKS

The short-term trend indicators for the HUI Mining stocks, which follow the trends for Gold and Silver, moved to a new sideways signal Tuesday, May 19th and remained there on Thursday.

As for the Short Term; REGULAR COMMON STOCK:

DJIA PPI (Manipulator Index) is still on a Buy

DJIA 14 Day Stochastics on common stock is still on a Buy

Secondary Trend Indicator still, on a Buy

Demand Power Up 1 to 381, Supply Pressure Fell 3 to 374, Neutral

Plunge Protection Team Indicator negative - 5.09, on a Sell

DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 336.4 on a Buy

NYSE New Highs 86 New Lows 24 they are all weak signals, just strong enough to produce that final blow-off high and Bull Market trap.

Technology NDX Market

On Thursday, May 21st, Demand Power rose 1 to 410, while Supply Pressure fell 4 to 405, telling us Thursday's rise was weak and due more to a lack of selling interest than an urge to buy. 

NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 50.00 Slow 55.40 on a Sell

IN SUMMATION

The stock market is on the cusp of a major selloff, while Gold and their mining shares are getting ready for a major upside breakout!  But don’t be in a hurry to jump the gun.  There will be plenty of opportunities and room to get on board once the breakdown (breakup in Gold) starts.  (All this thanks to Robert McHugh.)

GOOD LUCK AND GOD BLESS

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Aubie Baltin CFA, CTA, CFP, PhD.                                              

2078 Bonisle Circle

Palm Beach Gardens FL.  33418

uncommon@aubiebaltin.com

561-840-9767

Please Note: This article is for education purposes only and is designed to help you make up your own mind, not for me to make it up for you. Only you know your own personal circumstances so only you can decide the best places to invest your money and the degree of risk that you are prepared to take. The Information on data included here has been gleaned from sources deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by me. Nothing stated in here should be taken as a recommendation for you to buy or sell securities.

Gold is using for heat dissipation in some cars.