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The price of oil will spike back to $149 a barrel by the end of the year, despite its current slump and negative sentiment regarding demand for oil, Goldman Sachs wrote in a market report on Wednesday.
Chinese oil import data for August are expected to be weak as the country relied on existing inventories during the Olympic Games, but this is likely to change, the analysts said.
"We continue to expect that strong Chinese buying will return to the market as China restocks after the Games,"
Someone on this forum pointed out that gold has a 17% annual rise from Feburary to Feburary on average. I have plotted the 17% rise and projected it some years out. I have also placed lines showing how gold tends to top early in election years and then sells off going into the elections, which occur every 2 years. The reader will be able to figure this out by looking at the chart. Next year gold should be at or above 1250 and possibily over 1300. If it does not top out in the fall of 09 then it should do so before spring 10. If the previous trend continues they will want the gold price at or below the 17% trend line in 2010, which is an election year if I am not mistaken. So it will have to correct from a high sometime in 2010, possibly in the summer. It might backtest 1000 sometime in Apr/May of that year so that it will still be off its highs and just below the trend line by the tiime of the election. I would be thankful if the technically minded would consider and comment on this information.
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