Daily Gold Chat

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Thursday, August 17, 2017

https://www.jmbullion.com/charts/gold-price/
(Brett Star)
08/17/2017 - 22:23
jeez.....sorry V
(Brett Star)
08/17/2017 - 13:28
Gold-Eagle shows spot prices whereas Comex shows Futures
(Vronsky)
08/17/2017 - 12:18

I trust Brett Star knows the difference?!

Looking ahead I see >
(chris-d)
08/13/2017 - 19:47
08/17/2017 - 07:47

> A weaker US$. This will enable the largest companies to increase the price of their shares, and so will QQQ and the SP500, even if most of those stocks in those investment vehicles go down.

So far the debt ceiling issue, which has received little attention, is in my opinion a bigger issue for the markets then N. Korea. This market is built on debt, thus needs a much higher debt ceiling to keep going higher.

Ever more people are getting fed up with the debt ceiling and N. Korea that they see as nonsense and thus are paying less attention to it. Thus volatility is abnormally low, with less then 10% of all trades having human input. Central banks working for their member banksters have the most to fear and will pump the bubble until it is more destructive than a handful of nuclear hits. In short, a weaker US$ will enable the bubble to stay in place.

US Stock Are Likely To Crash By Yearend
(Vronsky)
08/12/2017 - 14:46
08/17/2017 - 02:46

My forecast is based upon a comparison of The Dow Index price surge mania from October 1921 to October 1929…an 8 year period when the US stocks (i.e. Dow Index) surged +393%. Well, that stock mania has just been surpassed by the NASDAQ COMPOSITE Index which has soared +412% during the past 8 years from early 2009 to date. Here are the two period charts for comparison.

1921-1929: https://leduc998.wordpress.com/2008/05/15/dow-jones-history1920-1929
vis-à-vis
2009-2017: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COMPQ&p=M&yr=9&mn=0&dy=0&id=p4495187...

Following the 1929 crash, stocks plummeted 89% to its low in 1932.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929

Indubitably, Wall Street stocks measured by the NASDAQ Composite Index is at Bubble Bursting stage. Moreover, historical testament suggests a MARKET CRASH IS INEVITABLE. Nonetheless, I do not think stocks will crash to the extent a la 1929-1932 (i.e. -89%). However, a horrific crash is inevitable…AND probably before yearend.

Where do we go from here?
(chris-d)
08/04/2017 - 04:57
08/17/2017 - 04:57

I don't know. What makes possible for the stock, bond and real estate markets to hit new highs is ever more debt.

In a democracy, voters will mostly elect officials who promise them the most, even if it means to build up debts to fulfill those promises via higher spending and lower taxes. Treasuries then demand central banks print more credit IOU's (these IOU's is what we use as money). Treasuries issue bonds. Bonds are IOU's. Banks basically hold these bonds as reserves, and do so with the risk of devaluation because of the currency risk. The real value of bonds will always decreases with inflation.

Credit printing = QE (quantitative easing) drives interest rates lower at first, until debts build up to a level where bond buyers demand higher interest rates to compensate for the higher risk. This is where we are right now. Sooner or later this will cause the markets to crash. I think it will happen this year or in 2018. As markets crash, the amount of IOU's sloshing around as money gets reduced, making it harder to service existing debt and budget deficits. With huge debts, the only bad choices are restructuring (default) to reset the cycle or boosting inflation. Right now the Fed is trying everything to boost inflation. At the present moment it is working for the US$ has lost value.

For a long time, the Fed used the process (policy) of QE (easy credit) in encouraging speculation by piling up public debts to transfer wealth to the rich, with rising financial asset prices. To me it is a policy to widen inequality. Soon QT (hard credit) will force so called investors on borrowed money to sell to reduce not-pay-able debt. Entities with better fiscal management with little or no debt will move ahead and the rest will go bankrupt. We will soon see a lot of bankruptcies, but the stock indexes will go higher for the FAMG stocks (FB, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, GOOG) can do it all by themselves for some time. But it won't last.

Where do we go from here?
(Brett Star)
08/03/2017 - 12:10
08/17/2017 - 12:10
NYSE Margin Debt and the Market ARE AT Armageddon Levels
(Vronsky)
07/28/2017 - 13:09
08/17/2017 - 01:09

Today’s NYSE Margin Debt is at all-time highs….greater than in 2000 and 2007, when BEAR MARKETS began in Wall Street stocks…when they subsequently plummeted more than 50%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2017/06/27/a-look-at-...

Sooner or later the delusional stock bulls will AGAIN dump stocks.

Alan Greenspan’s Irrational Exuberance in Dec 1996 was Dead Wrong…as he is Today
(Vronsky)
07/27/2017 - 14:32
08/17/2017 - 02:32

In late 1996 Alan Greenspan was Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. It was then he uttered his infamous Irrational Exuberance call regarding Wall Street Stocks…suggesting stocks were in a bubble and doomed to crash. BUT HE WAS WRONG…as US stocks represent by the Dow Industrial Index continued to soar another +100% during the next 4 years (before a correction began). Please see article:
On This Day In 1996, Alan Greenspan Made His Famous Speech About 'Irrational Exuberance'

http://www.businessinsider.com/alan-greenspan-irrational-exuberance-2014-12

Fast Forward to June 2017 as the inimitable Alan GreenSPAM is yet again addressing the Irrational Exuberance saga…where he asserts that “…There is NO irrational exuberance in the market today ( suggesting stocks TODAY ARE NOT IN A BUBBLE !

Video: http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/5489801301001/?#sp=show-clips

Respectfully, I would like to call to Mr Alan Greenspan’s attention that the Dow Stock Index has soared more than 250% during the past 8 years.
And if that ain’t 'Irrational Exuberance' – then what the hell is?!

GreenSPAM was dead wrong in his 'Irrational Exuberance' view in 1996…as common sense and prudence would dictate he is AGAIN dead wrong TODAY.

Where I think we stand with the US$.
(chris-d)
07/18/2017 - 17:12
08/17/2017 - 05:12

The dollar has strengthened during the course of the economic recovery as a result of confidence in the productivity of the United States and its economy. That confidence in the recovery to me is nothing more then a banker induced thin air QE engineered debt fallacy.

This banking thin air credit out of "thin air" has damaged the pool of real savings. Rather than promoting an efficient allocation of real savings, the current monetary system is and has been promoting debt slavery via the banksters ability to channel vast amounts of thin air credit to keep the debt pyramid from imploding. It is not in the banksters interest to have the debt pyramid implode. It has been a long time since banking has been a legitimate industry that provides a legitimate service. It continues to be a system of fractional-reserve banking through fraudulent contracts that are impossible to honor because the money needed to honor those contracts does not exist in circulation. As a country, we are forced to use debt (IOUs) as if it was money. A debt can not pay a debt. It can only renew it. The present banking system is not a market-based banking system. It is a fractional reserve slavery system that enables debt slavery.

The economic recovery 2009 in the United States was just a result of printing ever more debt IOUs to finance ever more economic stimuluses. The dollar got stronger as we used debt IOUs as our parachute to stop the global debt economy from collapsing on itself. Like all things it works until it doesn't. The strength in the dollar came from the strength in the value of debt markets. That strength is delusional and based on a false confidence. As with all good things (especially bubbles) equity markets and dollar, will soon see a steep correction stemming from the shifted world perspective and different economic outlook. An outlook that has changed because of the Federal Reserve's consistent abuse of the dollar currency. The Fed has been using the US dollar as a backstop for all global economic problems via QE, in order to keep the dollar debt pyramid from imploding on itself.

The loss of confidence in any type of market, whether it is in real estate, bonds, stocks, currency, or any other asset, can be a funny thing. Very few people ever see it coming before it happens. This is how people get caught in a a bad spot and are forced to sell assets to deleverage which in turn causes prices to fall further. When that happens, you become part of the problem, instead of part of the solution. The loss of confidence in the dollar will happen in the same manner. One day we will all wake up to find that our dollar denominated debt is to be viewed in a different light because of the steps that the Federal Reserve has taken over the last 30 some years to maintain the value of debt has bankrupted the country. When that happens, all debt will lose value and so will the dollar that is backed by that debt.

Thursday, August 17, 2017

A sheet of gold can be made thin enough to be transparent