Once every decade or so investor credulity reaches a point where even seasoned money managers buy into the notion of "one decision" stocks -- that is, shares of companies so insanely great that they're virtually guaranteed to keep going up. Valuation is irrelevant,...
Gold Editorials & Commentary
January 6, 2016
Black swans are unknowable and unexpected events that swing financial markets, and the New Year has seen a small flock of them propelling gold prices upwards and close to a breakout from the recent bottoming formation on technical charts.
When it comes to oil prices, it’s been a brutal 12-18 months for any oil investor. In the past I have written why these oil prices won’t last, as 2/3rds of future oil reserves are uneconomic at a price of $60 dollars a barrel. If you combine this with the fact that...
Gold prices hit a four-week high today over $1,088 per ounce, extending gains for the third day and leading to a 2.5% gain year to date. Deepening concerns over the indebted Chinese economy saw falls in stock markets again and tensions rose in Asia and the Middle...
They say that insanity is doing the same thing over and over, but expecting a different result. So, according to this definition, this 4+ year correction has clearly afflicted this market with a bout of insanity, and much of it has culminated in 2015. So, do you...
There is a populist idea of money printing. The idea is that banks can just print what they want, enriching themselves in a massive fraud. But, does it really work this way?
Gold started the year well amid bad economic news from China and rising tensions in the Middle East. Will the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran boost the price of gold?
How goes the bull market in gold and silver? Believe it or not they are still in a bull market, though after the past three years I expect most people understand the current decline as a bear market. Either way doubts about the old monetary metals’ ability to rise...
January 5, 2016
The US dollar has begun 2016 by staging a horrific technical meltdown against the Japanese Yen.
Gold reached a high of 1081.50, at the time that this Post was being written, and is again trying to break above the wave ^i^ of *c* high of 1081.40. In yesterday’s End of Day Post we had suggested that the impulsive looking rally from the wave ^ii^ low of 1057.50...
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was first calculated on May 26, 1896. Therefore the index has been around for over 119 years. With the Federal Reserve talking about raising interest rates for the first time in over nine years in 2015, the Dow moved in an indecisive...
2015 was a year where nearly every asset class failed to provide any returns at all. If fact, the S&P500 hasn’t gone anywhere in about the past 400 days. An analysis of that Index’s performance at the end of the 3rd quarter by S&P Capital IQ showed that over...
Yesterday, the global stock market tumbled. What does it mean for the global economy and the gold market?
Last week we looked at a methodology for identifying select equities that have the potential to rise thousands of percent after a market crash. The technical criteria involves finding a market sector that has undergone a severe Stage IV decline (stage analysis, see...
I’ve seen articles explaining that rising interest rates are bearish for gold and I’ve seen articles explaining that rising interest rates are bullish for gold, so which is it? Are rising interest rates bullish or bearish for gold? The short answer is no — rising...
If crude oil is to actually produce a solid bottom and enter a bull market, the charts will show it. One does not have to try to nail some sort of “exact bottom” in the hope of bragging about some penchant for prophetic market insights.
January 4, 2016
Precious metals investors heading into 2016 worry the dollar will continue marching ahead, right over the top of gold and silver prices. The Fed is telegraphing additional rate hikes throughout the year, and commodity prices – led by crude oil – are falling.
2015 was a very interesting year in its own right…but the way it finished was even more interesting. As the year progressed, we saw global trade, GDP and earnings weaken significantly. We saw unprecedented rhetoric geopolitically while central banks and sovereign...
“As through this world I’ve wandered I’ve seen lots of funny men, some will rob you with a six-gun and some with a fountain pen. As through your life you travel and as through your life you roam you won’t NEVER see an outlaw drive a family from their home.” – Woody...
Earlier, I reflected back on 2015 by revisiting the 10 most popular posts of the year. Today I’d like to look ahead to 2016 by pinpointing three asset classes that I believe hold opportunities for investors.
The best-performing precious metals as we close out 2015 were gold and silver with returns of minus 10.47 percent and minus 12.45 percent, respectively. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index was down 24.51 percent for the year.
Last year (2015) likely will represent the top for the bull market that began in 2009. Stocks finished the year down, representing the first down year since the March 2009 bottom
As we approach the end of the year we are going to review one of the most extraordinary divergences that we have witnessed in modern times. This is very important because once you grasp the magnitude of this divergence and what it implies, you will be able to...
In Part 1 we covered Speculative Bubbles and the Intermediate Gold Targets. Here we will look at the new factors that will shape future bubbles and the different precious metal investment vehicles.
We believe the Credit Cycle has turned and with it will come some massive unexpected shocks. One of these will be the fall out in the Bond Market, centered around the dramatic growth explosion in Bond ETFs coupled with the post financial crisis regulatory changes...
Perhaps it may be lesser known than his other Laws, but Murphy wrote one for the basis analysis. It goes like this. If we observe that the fundamental price of a metal is far removed from the market price, the two won’t likely converge the next week. On the other...
Switzerland will hold a referendum to decide whether to ban commercial banks from creating money. What does it imply for the global economy and the gold market?
When it comes to the Fed’s ability to normalize interest rates, I have very little faith that they will be able to do this without bankrupting the US and its financial system at the same time. If you don’t believe me, then why don’t you ask the former chairman Ben...
January 3, 2016
Our attention this week will be more to the cycles and planets than to the charts. Last weekend, we were looking for a 4/8 stock market cycle low due early in the week followed by a possible top either December 29 or 30th and then weakness for the rest of the week....
The analysis of the weekly SPX chart gives us a better sense of what the index is doing. Taking into consideration the intermediate term cyclic climate, we could easily see an intermediate correction starting at the secondary high of 2116 continue into March or...
