Commodities, including gold and silver, have plunged to become so deeply oversold that a snapback rally looks likely soon. This could be sharp and could trigger a wave of short covering. Such a rally is likely to be sparked by a dollar reaction, as we will see, but...
Gold Editorials & Commentary
July 24, 2018
In 2013 and 2014 I predicted the Fed would lead the ECB and the BOJ in a slow but steady reversal of central bank policy, from QE/low rates to QT and relentless rate hikes. Even more shockingly, I predicted this would create a money velocity bull cycle in most...
As governments around the world debase their currencies, you need an asset that can ride out the hard times. And nothing fits the bill like gold writes John Stepek of Money Week
July 23, 2018
Anticipate before you participate in the market. This is a classic piece of advice I like to give investors and have written about extensively in my CEO blog, Frank Talk. Financial markets are influenced by relatively predictable cycles and trading patterns, and by...
In Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress last week, he reiterated his intent to continue the central bank’s gradual rate-hiking campaign.
It is my privilege now to welcome in Greg Weldon, CEO and president of Weldon Financial. Greg has over three decades of market research and trading experience, specializing in the metals and commodity markets, and his close connection with the metals led him to...
Benjamin Franklin was purported to have said “that which hurts, also instructs.” Yet, society, as a whole, has a very short memory. Thus, lessons learned through the pain of generations gone by often are quickly forgotten.
The price of gold fell another ten bucks and that of silver another 28 cents. Perspective: if you’re waiting for the right moment to buy, the market is offering you a better deal than it did last week (literally, the price of gold is a 7.2% discount to the...
The USD has had a bullish run out of it’s Intermediate and Yearly Cycle Low (YCL) in early February but it is now deep in my timing band to start seeking out its next 5-6 Month Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL). While I don’t want to overplay the negative correlation...
The big question I’ve been grappling with recently is the inflation or deflation theme. Last Friday’s price action felt like a counterpunch to the deflation scenario as the US dollar fell pretty hard and interest rate reversed. It was almost exactly a year ago...
Last week, SPX reached its ~2800 P&F target and started to form a short-term top. By Friday, the hourly indicators had given a sell signal and the daily had continued to increase their negative divergence pattern, suggesting that a short-term correction was...
July 22, 2018
To say that President Trump is a new breeze blowing out of the White House might seem as something everybody knows. The difference though, it would be an insult to liken him to a ‘breeze’; perhaps a tame tornado would be more apt. Although there are some observers...
After a brutal few weeks in precious metals, you’d expect trend-following speculators to be heading for the exits. And the most recent gold and silver futures action — aka the commitment of traders (COT) report — shows exactly that. Which is good news.
High-country greetings from Squaw Valley at 6,200 feet -- but without an Olympic Gold medal, the metal for which we must extend low-price greetings at $1,232/oz. 'Tis the level at which Gold settled yesterday (Friday) in officially closing out the week below The Box...
This week’s market commentary, as it has been for the past few months is tedious. But that isn’t my fault. What’s to say about a market which since early March has been four months of hurrying up and waiting? Waiting for what?
July 21, 2018
Far too much analysis is put out there linking gold with inflation. It is true that gold often acts as an effective inflation hedge, but it all too often fails in that capacity. Far too much analysis is put out there linking gold with war, terror, pestilence and...
Long-term – on major buy signal. Short-term – on sell signals. Gold sector cycle is up. COT data is now at levels of previous bottoms. Conditions are now favorable for overall higher prices in coming weeks and months. We are holding gold related ETFs for long-term...
July 20, 2018
This past week I was invited to be a keynote speaker at Rick Rule’s Sprott Natural Resource Symposium. And every year, gold is a key topic on everyone’s mind. Let me remind you of a very old saying…
Money manager Michael Pento predicts, "The U.S. is not an island. The U.S. is not going to have 4% GDP growth while the rest of the world implodes.
Gold’s summer doldrums are dragging on this year, with this asset slumping longer and lower than usual. Several converging factors are responsible. The stronger dollar has convinced gold-futures speculators to sell aggressively, and gold’s downside momentum has fed...
New information suggests that the cost to produce gold is much higher than what the market realizes. As the cost to produce gold has skyrocketed over the past two decades, the mining industry has hidden certain costs by placing them in their capital expenditures. ...
Now that the "summer doldrums" for the metals and miners seem to be upon us – which may or may not last until after Labor Day – it might be worth your time to "measure" your precious metals' holdings.
July 19, 2018
The trading action in the paper gold markets of London and NY this week further convinces me that gold is being pushed down in price by the western Central Banks similar to the take-down in the paper price that occurred in 2008. The motive is to prevent a soaring...
With the first half of 2018 now behind us, it’s an opportune time to look at what's been happening in the Chinese Gold Market. As a reminder, China is the largest gold producer in the world, the largest gold importer in the world, and China’s Shanghai Gold Exchange...
In today’s globalized economy no market can move entirely on its own. They are all connected in one way or another. But not all links are equal – some are barely noticeable, while others are so strong that it’s impossible to dismiss them. In case of the gold market...
In his book Nobody Knows Anything, my friend Bob Moriarty wrote about the difference between signal and noise. Unfortunately, much of the information in the gold space or what passes for such is really noise. Conspiracy theories around manipulation, price...
July 18, 2018
The recent currency and debt crises in Argentina and Turkey raise questions about the condition of the global economy in general and the emerging countries in particular. Are they merely isolated events without broader implications or are they canary in the emerging...
In the 2nd July Weekly Update we discussed the risk posed by the recent weakening of China’s currency (the Yuan), and commented: “We won’t know for sure until China’s central bank publishes its international currency reserve figure for June, but the recent weakening...
I always love reading titles to articles that tell me I am about to read a bunch of "reasons" as to why a market is going to do something. So, I thought I would write my own. When someone presents you with such an article, this is what they are really saying:
This market is in the “biggest bubble in the history of mankind,” Ron Paul told CNBC’s “Futures Now” last Thursday. “I see trouble ahead, and it originates with too much debt, too much spending,” Paul said.
