In a normal business cycle, the economy expands for a while and businesses hire lots of new people at somewhat higher wages, generating enough tax revenue to shrink the government’s budget deficit – and in rare cases produce a surplus. So, for a while, the...
Gold Editorials & Commentary
August 3, 2018
From Cape May to Cooperstown, we’ve been shepherding our boys of summer as they play through the sunset season of their final little league adventure. Following Labor Day, we’ll get back to our more comprehensive and consistent market commentaries. Until then, here’...
August 2, 2018
As we pass from early summer into late summer today, stocks on all the major indices open the day on the slide. The “Tech Wreck,” as it is being called, has been noted by many, as I’ll detail here. That is in spite of the fact that the last of the great FAANGS just...
In our featured video today, Greg Hunter interviews Charles Nenner, President of The Charles Nenner Research Centre. Previously of Goldman Sachs Nenner has since become one of the world’s leading researchers of market cycles.
August 1, 2018
Commitment of Traders reports for COMEX gold and silver are back to levels that often precede price bottoms. Could they also be telling us something about the current yuan-gold correlation?
Last week, I wrote an article about how I view the potential effects of an economic collapse on American society. Unfortunately, many of our readers took it as an opportunity to post their perspectives on Trump and the democrats.
Consumer price inflation is real. It sneaks into every facet of life. Bags of coffee shrink from 16 ounces to 12 ounces and then to 10 ounces. “Shrinkflation” is policy. That Snickers candy bar is smaller but costs the same or more.
So many credit crises are brewing, it’s hard to keep track without a scorecard. The mother of all credit crises is coming to China with over a quarter-trillion dollars owed by insolvent banks and state-owned enterprises, not to mention off-the-books liabilities of...
The CME COT report of July 27 shows non-commercial gold shorts have suddenly spiked to a 25 year high. Over the past five years, every similar spike in short interest (red arrows on the chart below) has led directly to a short squeeze rally in the gold price, with...
Just a quick update on GLD which has broken down from a 2 1/2 year triangle consolidation pattern. If we get a backtest to the bottom rail around the 119 area I will take a position in DGLD which is a 3 X short gold ETF.
July 31, 2018
Under Trump, it can be argued that the US economy (which is separate from the Wall Street casino) is experiencing a degree of normalization. Top economists give him credit for corporate tax cuts and deregulation. At the same time, the US central bank is also...
Even though the gold price increased in 2018, the top gold miners production declined while costs continue to escalate. Output at three of the top gold miners in the world fell in the first half of 2018 compared to the same period last year. With rising costs due...
For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set-up for the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD), which I analyze as a proxy for the gold market. I also believe that gold can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long-...
July 30, 2018
The yield on Italy’s 10-year bond is up by about 100 basis points from its 2018 low. Meanwhile, its government continues to borrow money and roll over its existing debt. But now it has to do so at ever-higher interest rates, which means it has to pay more interest,...
The best performing metal this week was palladium, up 3.41 percent on tensions residing over tariffs on automobiles. Gold traders turned bullish this week, as prices rose from their lowest in a year, after being the most bearish since December in last week’s survey...
And so it happened. After a breakdown that might have appeared accidental as it was triggered mostly by one company’s decline, we saw a weekly close below the key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level in the HUI Index. There was no analogous breakdown to new lows in...
Let’s return to our ongoing series on the destruction of capital, and how to identify the signs. Steve Saville posted a thoughtful article this week entitled The “Productivity of Debt” Myth. His article provides a good opportunity to add some additional thoughts.
This past week has been very interesting in the US markets for a couple of reasons. It is time we took a hard look at what to expect going forward and how this news will likely drive future market moves.
U.S. Bonds have completed a large Bearish Head & Shoulders Top pattern. The downside price target is 115ish, suggesting a ton of selling is about to hit the U.S. Bond market. Long-term interest rates could rise.
July 29, 2018
In recent newsletters I have pointed to negative divergence building up in the various market indices at the daily time frame. This is always suggestive of an approaching correction and one should be on guard for it. On Friday, traders took advantage of some good...
Gold has been dropping like a stone over the last several months, and getting no relief as the summer doldrums for precious metals meander along. Historically gold’s worst month is March, with January and September the next best months to look for a rally. September...
A week ago from the high mountains of Squaw Valley we nixed our forecast for gold to reach 1434 this year. 'Tis clearly evident not just by all the substantive overhead resistors -- notably The Box (1240-1280), The Whiny 1290s, and The 1360s Double-Top -- but as...
The Dow Jones Index has finally broken above its BEV -5% line in the Bear’s Eye View chart below, closing the week only 4.38% from making a new BEV Zero, (new all-time high). The bulls deserve a big Bravo Zulu for forcing me to change the question I ask every week...
July 28, 2018
After recently teasing another bottom, gold continues to be heavily weighed down by, as it were, two lead weights: the U.S. dollar and the Treasury bond yield. In today’s commentary, we’ll examine these prominent obstacles standing in the path of a gold relief rally...
Long-term – on major buy signal. Short-term – on sell signals. Gold sector cycle is up. COT data is now at levels of previous bottoms. From a contrarian point of view, the current extreme bearish sentiment is an excellent buying opportunity for long-term investors. ...
July 27, 2018
Back in mid-May, I wrote my first article for Sprott Money, entitled “Gold Preparing to Launch”, where I stated the following: “In summary, based on positioning, sentiment, technicals, inter-market analysis, Elliott Wave Theory and similar readings prior to previous...
Not much has changed since the last 3 Amigos macro update. Amigo #2 (long-term yields) has long-since reached the Continuum’s ™ limiter (the 100 month exponential moving average on the 30 year Treasury yield) and Amigos #1 (SPX/Gold) and #3 (the 10-2 yield curve)...
Some emerging markets, Argentina and Turkey in particular, deal with the economic crises, while their currencies are continuing their collapse. The Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, has recently said that “the role of U.S. monetary policy is often exaggerated”. On the other...
Gold continues to drift near summer-doldrums lows, feeding and intensifying bearish sentiment. But an exceedingly-bullish event just happened which will ignite a major new upleg. Speculators’ gold-futures short positions have soared near all-time record highs! That...
The case for China raising its gold holdings seems compelling. A potential trade war with the U.S. that threatens growth, simmering tensions on the Korean peninsula and this year’s slump in gold prices are reasons to buy. But People’s Bank of China data show the...
