Euro Extends Gains Ahead of ECB Rate Decision; QE Exit Signals Eyed

Frankfurt (Sept 7)  The European single currency extended gains in early Thursday trading as investors increase bets that European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will flag the end of the Bank's €2.3 trillion quantitative easing program later today in Frankfurt.

The Bank will announce its regular rate decision at 07:45 eastern time, with analysts expecting no changes to its three key interest benchmarks, including the -0.4% charge it applies to its overnight deposit facility. The ECB's main lending rate, known as the refinancing rate, has held at a record-low 0% since March 2016.

The Bank will also publish fresh growth an inflation forecasts for the next two years alongside its official policy statement at 08:30 eastern, although the larger focus for markets and investors will be the fate of the Bank's controversial QE program and the pace of its €60 billion in monthly asset purchases, which has a soft expiry date of December 2017 and the option of continuing beyond that date if Eurozone inflation is not showing sustained signs of accelerating closer to the Bank's "just below 2% target".

"With the stronger euro, the ECB is likely to be more cautious with its tapering communication," ING economist Carsten Brzeski said in a research note. "In fact, there are two options: either announce the details of a very dovish tapering starting January 2018, this week, hoping that full clarity restores calm, or strike a cautious balance between giving the first hint at upcoming tapering and adopting dovish tones, such as warning against unwarranted tightening of financial conditions in order to calm FX markets."

TheStreet