GLD ETF: Where To From Here?

New York (Aug 7)  Summary _ The gold market corrected in mid-late July as expected, and has rebounded from those lows.

•The current short-term picture is not a clear in my book as it usually is due to many factors.

•I have been adding to core positions and pruning shares of a few gold stocks.

•Stagflation here we come.

•The Gold bulls have been far outperforming, and being rewarded for their conviction.

So far everything in the gold market is proceeding according to plan. In my last update - back on July 7 - I talked about how the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD) was now in my 130-135 target zone and this was the first real area of resistance that I saw for the precious metal. One that could be tough for gold to bust through on the first try. July was also a seasonally weak month for the gold complex in general, as the majority of the time over the last 20 years it has posted a loss for this period. So my stated belief was that:

GLD will put in a short-term peak here over the next few days and then we will see some consolidation for the rest of July - with possibly a swift $50-$75 sell-off in the precious metal.

GLD did in fact peak in that July 6-8 timeframe, with gold declining $65 from its $1,375 high, to $1,310 just 8 days later.

The HUI has also performed inline with expectations, as my forecast that it would retest 250 at minimum sometime in mid-late July came to fruition. The HUI tried to hold onto its momentum earlier in the month even as gold started to decline, but it eventually succumbed to the pressure and went below 250 a few times in the process.

Source: SeekingAlpha