Gold’s Track Record in March Signals More Pain

New York (Mar 5)  If you thought February was a tough month to be a gold investor, March has a history of being the worst.

Gold's price trend shows bullion futures dropped 1 percent on average in March, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from the past four decades. Prices fell 65 percent of the time, more than any other month.

That’s a sign investors should avoid gold this month, Rocky White, a quantitative analyst at Cincinnati-based Schaeffer’s Investment Research, said in a note on Wednesday. Chinese consumers usually buy the metal to celebrate the Lunar New Year that takes place in January or February, leaving less demand after the holiday is over.

“March has become a more negative month in recent years,” James Steel, a New York-based analyst at HSBC Holdings Plc, said by phone Wednesday. “Chinese merchants tend to be relatively well stocked.”

Gold retreated 5.2 percent last month, the most since September, as Greece avoided a default and gains in the dollar and equities reduced demand for a protection of wealth. The best months for gold are September, August and December, and the metal is often bought before Indian year-end festivals and the wedding season.

Source: Bloomberg