Gold Lower, Hits 5-Week Low; Pressured by Rallying U.S. Dollar, Better U.S. Economic Data
New York (July 31) Gold prices ended the U.S. day session lower, hit a five-week low and closed at a technically bearish monthly low close Thursday. Some upbeat U.S. economic data released Thursday and the recently rallying U.S. dollar index that hit a six-month high this week were bearish weights on the gold and silver markets. August Comex gold was last down $12.70 at $1,282.20 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $13.10 at $1,281.75. December Comex silver last traded down $0.189 at $20.47 an ounce.
Gold market bulls were disappointed that a big sell off in the U.S. stock market Thursday, amid some ongoing geopolitical worries, did not help gold’s cause at all. Instead traders focused on the bearish aspects of some better-than-expected U.S. economic data this week, including a strong GDP report Wednesday and an upbeat weekly jobless claims report Thursday. The stronger U.S. data falls into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy hawks who want to see interest rates rise sooner rather than later. It bears repeating, howver, that an accelerating U.S. economic recovery raises the stakes for problematic price inflation down the road—and that’s gold-market bullish.
The market place is still monitoring geopolitical issues. The European Union and U.S. this week have slapped new and harsher sanctions on Russia. Meantime, the Israel-Hamas conflict is not de-escalating. These matters will continue to be not far from the front burner of the market place in the near term. Also in European trading Thursday, the troubled Portuguese bank, Banco Espirito, saw its stock price fall 40% after the bank reported a record loss in the second quarter. Meantime, Argentina is set to default on another sovereign debt obligation after negotiations between creditors and government officials collapsed.
Now, traders and investors await Friday’s U.S. Labor Department employment report. The report is forecast to see a rise in non-farm payrolls of 230,000 in July versus up 288,000 in June. Look for active trading in many markets in the immediate aftermath of the report’s release at 8:30 a.m. eastern time.
In overnight news, the July consumer price index in the European Union rose 0.4%, year-on-year, and is the lowest reading since 2009. The June CPI came in at up 0.5%. These figures are well below the European Central Bank’s target of 2.0% annual inflation in the EU.
The London P.M. gold fix was $1,285.25 versus the previous A.M. fixing of $1,295.00.
Technically, August gold futures prices closed near the session low, hit a five-week low and closed at a bearish monthly low close Thursday. Gold bears have the near-term technical advantage and gained more downside momentum today. A three-week-old downtrend line is in place on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,300.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,265.00. First resistance is seen at $1,287.50 and then at Thursday’s high of $1,297.30. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of $1,280.60 and then at $1,275.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.5
December silver futures prices closed nearer the session low and closed at a bearish monthly low close Thursday. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bears have the near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $21.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below major support at $20.00. First resistance is seen at $20.65 and then at Thursday’s high of $20.835. Next support is seen at last week’s low of $20.445 and then at $20.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.
December N.Y. copper closed down 85 points at 324.10 cents Thursday. Prices closed nearer the session low. Copper bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage amid recent choppy trading. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of 329.45 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 317.55 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 327.05 cents and then at last week’s high of 328.55 cents. First support is seen at 322.50 cents and then at this week’s low of 321.45 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.
Source: KitcoNews
