Gold price extends upside amid multi-year high yields and Middle East conflict

NEW YORK (October 11) Gold price (XAU/USD) extended its rally on Wednesday as Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers continue favoring steady interest rates at the 5.25 to 5.50% range through year-end. The precious metal is also capitalizing on the deepening conflict between Israel and Hamas, which could extend beyond Gaza. Investors should be prepared for volatility in the Gold price ahead as Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the September meeting and Producer Price Index (PPI) data for the same month are due.

Bullion remained the first choice of investment this week as Fed policymakers signaled support for an unchanged interest rate policy due to a multi-year high in US Treasury yields. FOMC members expect that higher bond yields could be substituted for further rate-tightening as the pace of spending and investment could slow down due to higher borrowing costs.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price extends upside amid Middle East tensions

• Gold price delivers a fresh upside to near $1,870.00 ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes and the producer inflation data for September.
• The release of the FOMC minutes for the September monetary policy is expected to provide a detailed explanation behind a steady interest rate decision. Apart from that, the outlook on inflation and interest rates will be keenly watched. 
• For US producer inflation, investors expect monthly headline PPI to expand at a slower pace of 0.4% against 0.7% recorded in August. The core PPI is seen growing at a steady pace of 0.2% in the same period.
• On an annualized basis, headline PPI is foreseen steady at 1.6%. The Core PPI accelerated marginally to 2.3% against the former reading of 2.2%.
• The precious metal has witnessed significant investment from investors this week amid the conflict in Israel/Palestine. The appeal for Gold remains upbeat as a firmer risk-aversion theme improves demand for safe-haven assets.
• In addition to higher demand for safe-haven assets, neutral interest rate guidance from Federal Reserve policymakers has kept the Gold price upbeat.
• On Tuesday, San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly said that the risk of over-tightening is not expected to outweigh the risk of raising rates too much. She further added that higher long-term US Treasury yields could be substituted for higher rates since it should lead to lower spending and investment.
• This week, Dallas Fed Bank President Lorie Logan drew less emphasis on raising interest rates further if long-term Treasury yields remain elevated.
• Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson also warned that the central bank needs to be very careful with a further hike in interest rates.
• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic said on Tuesday that current monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive and inflation will come down to 2% without triggering a recession.
• The US Dollar Index (DXY) delivered a five-day losing spell and stabilized below 106.00 amid an improved market mood and squeezing expectations of one more interest rate increase from the Fed for the remainder of 2023. 
• As per the CME FedWatch Tool, traders see an 86% chance of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged at 5.25 to 5.50%, where they’ve stood since July. The odds of one more interest rate increase in any of the two remaining monetary policy meetings in 2023 have dropped to 25%.
• The US Dollar carries the potential of recovering after a corrective move as the US economy is resilient amid tight labor market conditions and robust consumer spending. The global economy is expected to face further calamity due to Israel-Palestine tensions.
• Going forward, investors will focus on the inflation data for September, which will set an undertone for the Fed’s November monetary policy. 

FXStreet