Gold price rises as US yields cool down, although downside remains favored

NEW YORK (March 15) Gold price (XAU/USD) moves higher in Friday’s European session as US bond yields cool slightly after a strong run-up on Thursday. Market expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing interest rates in the June have diminished, suggesting that the slight recovery in the Gold price could merely be a pullback that could be used as a selling opportunity by investors.

The precious metal registered a sharp sell-off on Thursday on hotter-than-expected United States Producer Price Index (PPI) figures for February. Fed policymakers have brought down price pressures significantly but the last mile before the 2% target appears to be sticker than progress yet made. The prospect of high interest rates benefited the US Dollar (USD), weighing on the XAU/USD pair.

10-year US Treasury yields are slightly down to 4.28% on Friday, but easing expectations for the Fed announcing rate cuts in June have led them to a high of 4.30% this week from 4.03% previously. This has significantly increased the opportunity cost of holding investments in non-yielding assets such as Gold. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) refreshes a three-week high near 103.50.

Daily digest market movers: Gold price rebounds slightly ahead of US Michigan CSI data

• The Gold price rebounds to $2,170 as yields on US Treasury bonds decline slightly. The broader appeal of Gold remains uncertain as investors reassess expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in the June policy meeting after the February US PPI report indicated that producers hike prices of goods and services at a higher pace than anticipated.
• Market expectations for Fed rate cuts in June have dented as hot PPI data has indicated that Fed policymakers need not rush to reduce interest rates. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the chances for a rate cut have come down to 59% from 74% a week ago.
• This week, the consumer price index (CPI) data also showed inflation remains sticky. Stubborn price pressures have cast doubts over Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary in his Congressional testimony that the central bank is not far from gaining confidence that inflation will return to the desired rate of 2%. 
• Apart from the US PPI, the US Census Bureau reported that Retail Sales in February rebounded less than expected. The Retail Sales rose 0.6% while investors anticipated a 0.8% growth. In January, sales contracted by 1.1%, downwardly revised from the 0.8% decline previously estimated. 
• Meanwhile, investors are shifting focus to the Fed’s interest rate decision, which will be announced on Wednesday. The Fed is widely anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50%. The central bank will also release economic forecasts and the dot plot, which will indicate Fed officials’ expectations for interest rates over time.
• Before that, the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be in focus, which will be published at 14.00 GMT. Sentiment is forecasted to have remained steady at 76.9. The data indicates individuals' perceptions of economic prospects. Upbeat figures tend to signal high consumer spending, faster economic growth, and a strong labor market while declining numbers generally indicate that individuals’ confidence in economic prospects is fading.

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