Gold Price Shines With Le Pen's Possible First Round Win

Paris-France (April 23)  It may be "April in Paris" this Sunday night for Marine Le Pen in the first round of presidential elections by capturing the simple majority of votes which would cancel the need to have the May 7 runoff elections. By French electoral law any candidate who wins the simple majority in the first round would be president. This hasn't happened since 1960.

If such a result occurs it would roil the international markets creating a brutal Black Swan Monday because of its unexpected result in face of the polling information indicating a close race between four of the 11 candidates.

This possibility was introduced by author and journalist Kamel Daoud in his 22 April 2017 NY Times article entitled The French Disconnection stating in the second paragraph, "Hardly anyone seems to contemplate the possibility of her winning outright, with a simple majority in the first round of voting this Sunday."

In a worst case scenario the market has factored in a possible Le Pen victory in the first round but with a highly probable defeat in the runoff. World markets are completely unprepared psychologically and would be unable to digest a shocking first-round simple majority victory by Le Pen. Even a result that approaches 35%-40% would then make a May presidential victory almost a fait accompli.

There are 3 significant reasons why I believe this first-round knockout may occur:
1.The polls indicate that the number of undecided voters is estimated between 30%-40%
2.Additionally, there are many anecdotal reports that many French may abstain from voting altogether because of their disgust with the quality of the candidates. This would give the highly loyal and motivated NF supporters a huge boost
3.The recent violent attacks by shooters allegedly sympathetic to terrorist organizations segues seamlessly into the NF's anti-immigrant platform

Source:  SeekingAlpha