We all know the debt load in the US economy is horrendous and unsustainable. The US government runs deficits of approximately $1 Trillion per year, even with interest rates at historical lows. Current official national debt exceeds $19 trillion, of which $13.9...
Gold Editorials & Commentary
June 17, 2016
I’ve questioned the moves higher in gold, silver and miners these last few weeks. Consequently, we will soon find out if my skepticism was warranted. The 6-month cycle lows didn’t seem sincere enough, especially in miners, as something seemed awry. Well, it's make...
June 16, 2016
A month and a half after they began, the Fort McMurray wildfires in Alberta, Canada still blaze on in contained patches. Already estimated to be the most expensive disaster in Canadian history, costing the Albertan economy $70 million per day, the fires are now...
Yesterday the Fed failed to raise rates…again. It’s pretty incredible if you step back and think about it. Here were are, seven years into a supposed recovery, and the Fed’s actions tell us the economy cannot handle rates higher than 0.5% (the overnight benchmark...
It’s happening—the price of gold is starting to finally make big gains -- and recently broke the US$1300/ounce threshold. Optimism is growing that we have done away with the bear market—we probably are. But there are cautions, as I indicated in my previous articles...
Brexit is not the most important problem facing markets, it is mounting problems in the European banks. But before looking at that systemic issue, I will summarise the Brexit position in the last few days before the referendum.
Gold hits near six-week highs ahead of Fed, Brexit vote (GoldCore via Reuters). Gold gains ground for 5th straight session (GoldCore via Marketwatch)
June 15, 2016
You didn't come here today for bad news. There's plenty of that everywhere you look…and even where you don't look. So here's the good news. A new rush to gold has begun. To see where we're headed, let's first see where we've been.
It’s Wednesday morning – and let’s start with a little background, as we head into yet another episode of the Fed’s LOL “most important meeting ever.” To that end, recall that it was just seven weeks ago, on April 27th, when Yellen & Co published one of their...
The gold-to-silver-ratio is an indicator that shows how many silver ounces are required to purchase an ounce of gold. The gold-to-silver ratio is one of the most important parameters in the precious metals market, as it measures the relative value of gold and silver...
After we caught the lows in late 2015 and early 2016 in the metals complex, the market has been acting quite bullish. But, “acting” bullish is not the same as resuming a bull market. The latter is that for which we seek confirmation in the current set up.
A solid bid returned to the Gold sector this past week as the market saw a solid Gold Rally. And the GLD ETF alone added more than 15 tons of Gold. The precious metals Miners, which had fallen 10% from their recent Cycle highs, rallied to recover all of their...
June 14, 2016
Gold reached a low of 1279 in the overnight session, but then recovered to the 1286 level (when time this post was being written). We are due for a small correction.
All institutional eyes are on the Brexit vote. In the short-term, it’s the main driver of gold price discovery.
Gold in euros has risen another 0.6% today due to deepening BREXIT jitters with just 9 days left until the referendum on June 23. The flight to gold and sell-off in euros and sterling came as Irish, UK, European and global stock markets fell sharply.
Are we better off with "QE", the ultra-accommodative monetary policy pursued by major central banks around the world? Is it "mission accomplished" or are we facing a "ticking time bomb"? Are extreme characterizations even warranted to describe the unconventional...
If you’re a serious investor—and because you’re reading this, I have to assume that you are—gold is looking more and more like a crucial trade. Fewer than two weeks remain before United Kingdom voters decide on whether the country will continue to be a member of the...
George Soros has joined fellow billionaire investors Stan Druckenmiller and Ray Dalios on investing big in gold. Here following are the reasons behind these moves.
The long time successful investors like George Soros and Stan Druckenmiller are piling into gold and gold mining stocks. At the same time, there was news that Carl Icahn has dumped his high tech Apple stock. In this article, we will not discuss Soros’ reflectivity...
June 13, 2016
While CNBC and other media outlets continue to hype stocks and talk down gold, the precious metal is crushing virtually every US-based asset class. Year to date, gold is up over 20%, compared to nearly 5% for US Treasuries and a mere 2.55% for stocks.
The best performing precious metal for the week was silver with a strong lift of 5.57 percent. Silver holdings in exchange traded funds are edging toward a record high, sending the metal for its biggest weekly gain since April, reports Bloomberg. Silver buying also...
The Fort Knox Bullion Depository OFFICIALLY contains 147.3 million ounces of gold. Reality: The gold is listed on paper and in official pronouncements. However, it has also been officially pronounced that:
“If you like your health plan, you can keep it.”...
Gold in sterling has risen another 1.7% today due to deepening BREXIT jitters with just 10 days left until the referendum on June 23. The flight to gold and sell off in sterling came as Asian and European stock markets fell and European equities headed for their...
With the zirp, (zero interest rate policy) savings and bonds are not paying any significant interest. In Germany some bunds are paying negative interest rates. Few stocks are paying big dividends and most pay none at all. Everyone is trying to find a decent return...
According to my read, the stock market as measured by the S&P500 is about to enter roughly a 12% to 13% correction. A few weeks ago, I wrote about the dates July 5th and November 29th as being possible important cycle lows for the stock market this year.
June 12, 2016
That’s the AVERAGE gain for the 50 penny stocks in the Merv’s Penny Arcade Index (see below). If history is to repeat, then there is still another 300-500% gain ahead. One sign that speculators are comfortable with a bull market is their gravitation to the more...
Stocks showed strength, while I was away…but have hit resistance levels and are now moving lower. Whether this is just another normal move down to support areas or a major bear market kicking off, I do not know. Nonetheless, I’m looking for short positions now.
I haven’t published this Bear’s Eye View (BEV) chart for the Dow Jones since last February. Therefore, it’s time for a review. Here’s the frequency distribution for the below BEV series (left table) with a frequency distribution of the same data going back to 02...
You know what's really scary? When everything stops working. No, not when the world on balance grinds to a halt; rather when tried and true analytical signals become less reliable across our major markets mix to which we oft refer as BEGOS (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil...
The War on Gold turned against the forces suppressing the gold price in 2000-2001 when their efforts caused gold mines to reduce production or close. Gold bulls then realised they had time on their side and could accumulate gold and of course silver as they would be...
