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Gold Editorials & Commentary
June 27, 2017
In recent day and weeks, I have slowly moved to the starboard side of the "Vessel of Public Opinion" where most seasoned veterans (aka "old guys") usually wind up; that is to say that I am now officially "cynical" when it comes to the world of investing.
The research for this moment started well before last week. It goes back to May 3, when I obtained the estimated number of shares to be liquidated by the GDXJ ETF (VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF) on a per-company basis by June 16. What this scramble for ...
– Gold bounces higher after “mysterious” one minute “flash crash” mistake. – $2 billion, 50 tons or 1.8 million ounces “fat finger” trade blamed. – Massive selling at 0400 EST when U.S. markets closed and thin trading amid holidays in Muslim countries including...
June 26, 2017
Steve Saville wrote a post this week, in which he proposed a model that indicates the fundamentals of gold.
The best performing precious metal for the week was gold, up 0.25 percent. In the weekly survey of gold traders, Bloomberg reports the majority are bullish, for the first time in three weeks. The gold price has recovered from a one-month low.
Sound money advocates rejoiced as Governor John Bel Edwards signed House Bill 396 into law in recent days. HB 396, which passed in the Louisiana state house and senate earlier this month by overwhelming majorities, removes state sales taxation of precious metals,...
The market has been sending “topping” signals for weeks now. They include: Fewer and fewer companies participating in the rally. High yield credit, which leads stocks, rolling over. Weakening momentum. Dwindling volume. Market leaders (the big 5 Tech) beginning to...
Gold and especially gold mining stocks rebounded on Wednesday and trended higher into the weekend. This is giving some investors renewed hopes that the bull market that began roughly 18 months ago is about to reassert itself. We cannot know for sure yet but what we...
Structure suggests that SPX is near a correction, but could still make a slightly higher high if it can get past 2442. A move below 2430 should lead to a re-test of the 2416-20 support, at a minimum.
June 25, 2017
Gold speculators closed nearly 50,000 long contracts last week, which was one of the largest speculative sell-offs of the year. Despite this drop in longs, gold moved very little on the week. Normally that would be bullish news, but weak demand in Asia and a hawkish...
Worse: Observations Are Now Up To Six. The stock market has generated an official Hindenburg Omen stock market crash warning signal as of May 31st, 2017. While it only takes two observations for an official Hindenburg Omen, this one so far is now up to six...
Fraternize about gold with folks here amongst Monaco's financiers and wealth managers and you'll span pretty much the same spectrum of 180° out-phase-opinions as you'll find elsewhere. A close banker buddy, and better yet a dear family friend for well over a...
While the "CoT-Report" signal improved to neutral we got two new sell signals. One comes from the SPDR Gold trust Holdings. The other one is likely more important and was issued by the US-Dollar who seems to get ready for a bounce/recovery over the coming weeks. A...
The Dow Jones Index continues advancing. In the past two weeks it’s made five new all-time highs in the BEV chart below and ended the week only 0.62% away from Monday’s last all-time high. All and all a darn good performance.
June 24, 2017
From Venice…GDX closes above the 10ema which is a good first step, IMO.
A major consolidation is in progress and now near completion. Gold sector is on major buy signal since early 2016. Major signals can last for months and years and are more suitable for long term investors.
It is my great privilege to be joined now by James Rickards. Mr. Rickards is editor of Strategic Intelligence, a monthly newsletter, and Director of the James Rickards Project, an inquiry into the complex dynamics of geopolitics and global capital. He's also the...
June 23, 2017
Gold has spent most of June grinding lower on balance, damaging sentiment and vexing traders. Usual selling leading into the Fed’s latest rate hike contributed, but the summer doldrums are also in play. Gold has typically suffered a seasonal lull this time of year...
We argued many times that the yellow metal behaves as a currency rather than as a commodity. Hence, macroeconomic factors and currency exchange rates affect the price of gold. In previous editions of the Market Overview, we analyzed the impact of the U.S. dollar and...
Bubbles always pop, whether they exist in stocks, gold, confidence in the media, belief in central bank omnipotence, real estate, or debt. Yes, it could happen anywhere, and based on history, is likely. This time is not different, unless it will be worse…
Every time we pick up some article on the stock market of late, all we read is the stock market is on the verge of a devastating wipeout, or that the next collapse is just around the corner. One of the best headlines we saw recently was from a famed market guru with...
In line with our bullish forward view on USD, behold the very bearish state of the Commercial Hedger positions in the Euro (courtesy of Sentimentrader). Recent historical data speaks for itself. It appears a decline in the Euro is imminent (which, in market terms...
To paraphrase Jim Grant, gold’s perceived value in US$ terms is the reciprocal of confidence in the Fed and/or the US economy. Consequently, what I refer to as gold’s true fundamentals are measures of confidence in the Fed and/or the US economy. I’ve been covering...
June 22, 2017
An asymmetric trade is a situation where investing a relatively small amount of money holds the potential of yielding a profit many times the amount of the original sum at risk. In other words, where the risk to reward is skewed massively in the direction of reward...
Some days it can feel a little rough being a gold investor. In today’s article Dominic Frisby is certainly feeling that way. Sometimes it can be all too easy to get caught up in the day to day chat around prices. Some forget that the reasons why they invested are...
Gold and gold stocks are setting up a basing formation that will eventually resolve into a big move higher or lower. Sentiment in the gold market is bearish and the media is totally ignoring the gold market right now. Seasonally gold tends to make a major bottom...
The market has gone absolutely nowhere for 15 weeks now. That is not a typo, nor am I bearing overly negative. Since the end of February, when President Trump last tweeted that he had big plans for the economy, the S&P 500 is up a total of just 1.6% or roughly...
Tonight I would like to update a few ratio combo charts as several are at a crossroad, which may shed some light on where the PM complex may be headed next. A couple of the ratio combo charts worked out extremely well in calling a bottom in January of 2016.
June 21, 2017
Basel III is a set of international banking regulations developed by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) to promote stability in the international financial system. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS), which brings together regulators from 28...
