Gold’s Uptrend Remains Intact, but Bond Yields Hold the Key This Week
LONDON (December 15) Gold extended its winning streak into a fifth week, starting the new week with a solid push higher of around 0.9%. Silver followed suit, rebounding sharply with a 3% gain after Friday’s dip. That said, both metals remain below their respective record highs, and with a big week ahead for financial markets, don’t rule anything out.
A big part of that caution comes from the bond market. The recent sell-off in bonds — and the resulting rise in yields — continues to loom large for low- and zero-yielding assets like gold. At the same time, safe-haven demand appears to have cooled somewhat in recent weeks.
We’ve also seen cracks appear in other crowded trades, with technology stocks and cryptocurrencies wobbling after extended rallies. Gold may be flirting with a similar “too hot, too fast” phase, although, importantly, there are still no clear bearish reversal signals on the charts just yet.
What to Watch This Week
In short, it all comes back to the US dollar and bond yields. This is likely to be the final meaningful trading week of the year, which can amplify moves in either direction.
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The US dollar softened last week after the Federal Reserve left the door open to further rate cuts, a shift that helped underpin gold prices. This week brings a busy US data calendar and plenty of Fed commentary. Any rebound in the dollar could take some shine off gold.
The key event is Tuesday’s November nonfarm payrolls report. Markets are braced for a relatively soft number of around +50,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to tick up to 4.5%. A weaker-than-expected print could see markets pull forward expectations for the next Fed rate cut, which would likely be supportive for gold. The opposite is also true.
Thursday’s focus then turns to November CPI, where headline inflation is forecast to edge up slightly to 3.1% year-on-year. Alongside the data, Fed rhetoric will be crucial. New York Fed President John Williams speaks later today, while Chris Waller delivers his views on the economic outlook on Wednesday — both influential voices in shaping recent rate expectations.
Beyond the US, it’s a heavy week for central banks across the eurozone, Japan, the UK, and elsewhere. Any hawkish surprises, particularly from the ECB, could ripple through global bond markets and feed back into gold via yields.
Investing.com
