US Dollar edges higher ahead of top-tier PCE and GDP data releases

LONDON (April 30) US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, edges slightly higher and trades at 99.40 at the time of writing on Wednesday. The Greenback is not really going anywhere as investors stay on the sidelines against key data releases during the American session. United States (US) President Donald Trump signed an executive order to ease the tariff impact on car parts and, during a rally in Detroit, lashed out at Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell again, proclaiming Trump knows more about interest rates than Powell does. 

On the economic calendar front, a general rehearsal will take place this Wednesday ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls release on Friday. The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) preliminary reading for Q1  will already be a vital element to assess the first impact, if any, of the administration’s tariff policy. The reading could stoke recession fears in case it shows weak growth or even contraction, while it could fire up stock markets if the initial impact of tariffs and Trump’s presidency on growth proves to be rather limited.  

Daily digest market movers: Chunky data ahead

• At 12:30 GMT, the preliminary reading of the first quarter for US Gross Domestic Product is to be released. Economists expect the US economy to have grown by a modest annualized rate of 0.4%, much slower than the 2.4% expansion seen in 2024’s fourth quarter. 
• In that same time span, the monthly PCE data for March will also be released. The Monthly Core PCE is expected to come in at 0.1%, down from 0.4%. The monthly headline number is expected to fall to 0%, from 0.3% previously. 
• Around 13:35 GMT, the Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index for April is due. Expectations are for a further contraction to 45.5 from 47.6.
• Equities are rather mixed, with overall losses to be reported. In the US, all futures are already pointing to red openings. After the US closing bell, Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG) will report earnings. 
• The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the May’s meeting stands at 7.6% against a 92.4% probability of no change. The June meeting sees a 65.1% chance of a rate cut. 

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• The US 10-year yields trade around 4.15%, ticking lower for a second day in a row, with traders slowly but surely buying back into US bonds as rate cut bets are starting to pick up.