Gold's 3 Big Pillars

President of Graceland Investment Management
September 29, 2021

There are three big price drivers currently at work in the gold market: The rise of inflation, the huge bull continuation pattern on the weekly price chart, and the war cycle.

There are numerous other factors in play, but they are related to the (fundamental, technical, and cyclical) “big three”.

Not surprisingly, the Fed takes credit for the inflation that has appeared on the streets of America… credit that belongs with the Trump administration and to simple supply chain blockage.

The Fed can take credit for creating “creep state inflation”, because that’s what it created with its vile money printing program: inflation in stock, bond, and real estate markets. 

Main Street inflation never began to surge until the US government issued money directly to citizens… and did so at the same time as the Corona crisis created substantial supply chain issues.

As expected, US Democrats have failed to follow through with any further direct payments to struggling citizens, but they have told a lot of wonderful “We’re here to help the people!” stories. 

At the same time, some of the supply chain blockages (especially lumber) have cleared.  The bottom line: Inflation has temporarily peaked, but it hasn’t waned. 

It appears to be consolidating.

The stunning “shipflation” chart.

I urge gold bugs to get a grip on the stages of inflation in the dying American empire.  First, there is Main Street deflation.  Then comes “growflation”, and finally there is stagflation.

The spectacular BDRY shipping costs ETF chart.  An ascending triangle breakout is clearly in play.

During the growflation stage of inflation, investors will see substantial profits in these types of investments, which is why I recommended BDRY before and during the breakout stage.

The long-term chart for gold.  Note the enormous bull continuation pattern (an inverse H&S). 

The right shoulder is still forming, and it’s likely to be completed as the Fed’s QE welfare program is reduced or eliminated.

The disturbing stock market chart.  As debt-fuelled GDP growth fades, the stock market will swoon, and the winds of stagflation will begin to blow.

The governments of dying empires can’t resist meddling in the affairs of faraway lands, and they use borrowed and printed money to do it.  The 2021-2025 period is a war cycle, and 2021 is only the start of it.  By the time of the 2025 “crescendo”, this war cycle could make the virus cycle of 2020-2021 look small.

This chart highlights the price action during the formation of the huge right shoulder on the long-term gold chart.

Investors need to look for “green shoots”, and there have been some, but until there is more fundamental evidence of imminent stagflation, the right shoulder formation is likely to continue.

Back in 2014-2019, I talked about the coming rally to $2000, and the need for investors to be prepared for a substantial right shoulder build process that would probably see gold pull back from $2000 to around $1500.

That’s exactly what has occurred.  At this point, a yawn is more useful than a prediction; it’s all about waiting for the shoulder to be completed.

The huge $1566-$1450 support zone is in the $1500 target area.  It’s also my “all gold bug hands on mining stock deck” buy zone of champions!

I call this the GDXJ money train chart, but for investors who ignore the big support and resistance zones for gold, it can become a truly macabre money drain chart.

There are a couple of green shoots now; the 14,7,7 Stochastics oscillator is finally oversold and a positive RSI non-confirmation with price is also in play.

A close over $43 would be the next green shoot to look for.  My mantra for investors is this: sit tight and wait for gold and the miners… to begin their magnificent right shoulder bull era flight!

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Stewart Thomson 

Graceland Updates

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Stewart Thomson is a retired Merrill Lynch broker. Stewart writes the Graceland Updates daily between 4am-7am. They are sent out around 8am-9am. The newsletter is attractively priced and the format is a unique numbered point form.  Giving clarity of each point and saving valuable reading time.

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Stewart Thomson is no longer an investment advisor. The information provided by Stewart and Graceland Updates is for general information purposes only. Before taking any action on any investment, it is imperative that you consult with multiple properly licensed, experienced and qualified investment advisors and get numerous opinions before taking any action. Your minimum risk on any investment in the world is: 100% loss of all your money. You may be taking or preparing to take leveraged positions in investments and not know it, exposing yourself to unlimited risks. This is highly concerning if you are an investor in any derivatives products. There is an approx $700 trillion OTC Derivatives Iceberg with a tiny portion written off officially. The bottom line:  

Are You Prepared?


Stewart Thomson is president of Graceland Investment Management (Cayman) Ltd. Stewart was a very good English literature student, which helped him develop a unique way of communicating his investment ideas.  He developed the “PGEN”, which is a unique capital allocation program. It is designed to allow investors of any size to mimic the action of the banks.  Stewart owns GU Trader, which is a unique gold futures/ETF trading service, which closes out all trades by 5pm each day. High net worth individuals around the world follow Stewart on a daily basis.  Website:

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