Rosen On Gold, HUI Index & Silver

September 22, 2013
Why worry about what the Fed will or won’t do when the Long Term Delta turning points tell you what gold has done, will be doing and when it will do it? We know that ever since the bull market in gold began, in spite of all Central Banks, in spite of any and all attempts at manipulation, in spite of all governments collective anti gold actions, and in spite of all and every known form of technical, astrological or “nuclear” analysis a new high arrived at every LTD # 4 high and every grouping of LTD # 1 and LTD # 2 highs. We also know that a higher low occurred at every LTD # 3 low and LTD # 5 low. Most importantly, every LTD high arrival occurred above the lower trend line on this chart. Therefore, is it not reasonable to assume that the arrival of the next LTD # 4 high will occur above the lower trend line? The price at the lower trend line when the next LTD # 4 high is due (2/12/2014) is $2,310.00. 
 
                                         GOLD MONTHLY LOGARITHMIC
 
The huge bull moves in the HUI all began at LTD # 3 low and topped at the grouping of LTD # 1 high and LTD # 2 high. Each bull move was bigger than the previous one. The HUI has once again bottomed at LTD # 3 low. Based on the past performance of the HUI is it not more than reasonable to assume that the current leg up will be the biggest move in the HUI so far?
 
 
                                                        HUI MONTHLY
 
Every combination LTD # 1 and LTD # 2 has been a higher high. The biggest moves occur between LTD # 3 low and the combination LTD # 1 and LTD # 2 highs. The high at $8.50 was 2 times the previous low of $4.01. The high at $21.44 was 4 times the previous low of $5.45. The high at $49.82 was 6 times the previous low of $8.40. Is it not reasonable for the next high at LTD # 1 and LTD # 2 high, due between 6/17/2015 and 2/17/2016, to be 8 times the previous low of $18.17? That would be a high of $145.36.
 
 
                               SILVER MONTHLY LOGARITHMIC
 
If gold has bottomed at LTD # 3 low, as it appears to have, the only things that could cause gold to decline below LTD # 3 low between here and LTD # 4 high are if the Sun no longer rises in the East and the Moon and the Earth have vanished.  …      
 
 
Once more with feeling! If gold has bottomed at LTD # 3 low, as it appears to have, the only things that could cause gold to decline below LTD # 3 low between here and LTD # 4 high are if the Sun no longer rises in the East and the Moon and the Earth have vanished.  …      
                                                                           
If the Fed cannot control the Sun, the Moon, and the Earth, which means that the Fed cannot control the timing of the highs and lows of the markets, what does it control? In the long term it can control nothing. However, it may be able to distort the smooth movements of the inevitable at an eventual horrendous and painful price. I doubt that the Fed has the power to permanently postpone the inevitable. I further suspect that the end will arrive based on when it is predestined to arrive and not when or how the Fed wants it to arrive. If I am correct this means that any and all attempts to delay the inevitable will simply cause an extraordinary and huge explosion of price at the proper time in order to fit the entire move into a predestined time schedule. If you have been active in the markets for a very long time you have seen this happen many times over. So, what are we to do? I suggest that we conduct our finances as undoubtedly Reverend Simeon would suggest. If the long term timing schedule is predetermined and beyond human control what’s the hurry? I think I will have a beer and watch the baseball game. 
 
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Stay well,
Ron Rosen
Small amounts of natural gold were found in Spanish caves used by the Paleolithic Man about 40,000 B.C.

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