You'll Know It When You See it!

February 8, 2016

A topic written about before, "GAPS".  This is no acronym, simply a description of what is going to happen, probably quite soon!  If you don't know what a gap is now, you will know it when you see it!  In technical terms, a "gap" opening is when a market opens either higher than the previous day's high and does not trade down to that previous high...or, trades below the previous low and does not trade back up to that low.  On a chart this action will leave a "gap" of emptiness, signifying no trading took place in the price gap area.

One place we are already seeing "gaps", many in fact, are the gold and silver mining stocks.  Since the beginning of the year there have been four or five instances where these gaps have occurred.  Under "normal" circumstances, almost all gaps get "filled".  Meaning the asset in question will ultimately trade back to the gap levels and "fill" in the chart.  We in my opinion are in no way living in "normal" times -- and the current and coming gap openings will be huge and never be filled.  "Never" is a very long time, in this case it will be a generation or more in many asset classes.

As you know, I believe we are in the process of a financial meltdown that will alter the landscape on such a grand scale, history will call it something more severe than "the greatest depression".  In fact, I believe many currencies will go away and be replaced by new currencies.  Credit will cease for a time and business will need to adjust to a new paradigm with far less credit but I digress. 

The coming gaps will do some serious damage to psychology, let me explain.  From a psychological standpoint, gaps cause investors a "deer in the headlights" moment.  Meaning, when something trades at a new level, many investors are frozen.  The psychology of "I will buy on a pullback, or sell on a bounce" comes into play.  The only problem is the bounce or back never comes ...which means neither does the purchase or the sale!  Just like Pavlov's dog training, the filling of gaps always happens ...until they don't!  It has been my (and others) contention we currently live in a "controlled" financial world.  When saying controlled I am talking about the thought process "don't worry, the government won't ever let it happen".  Gaps in the "wrong directions" will do serious damage to this prevailing psychology! 

You must also understand, market makers try their hardest to prevent gaps because it displays a serious mismatch between supply/demand dynamics.  But this is where we are today.  Our markets have been managed for such a long time and in such severe distortions, gaps will be Mother Nature's natural way of restoration.  What has taken years to create will be "righted" in a small fraction of the time.

In many past writings we talked about "holidays".  A "financial holiday" will be the ULTIMATE GAP!  Any banking or market holiday will be a function of supply or demand that cannot be met.  In other words, market forces so large a "clearing price" cannot be found.  We saw a precursor to this back in the summer in the Chinese markets where they simply closed until order could be found...(they pulled the plug!). 

Think of gaps as mini tremors leading to the massive tectonic shift.  Gaps will display the coming psychology, where demand cannot meet supply in any fashion (or vice versa).  The final "gap" will be the closure of the markets for days or even weeks.  The reopening of markets in my opinion will be unrecognizable pricing.  In other words the "re-set" will have occurred!  If the re-set of asset cross pricing has not gone far enough, another closure will occur and the process continued until supply and demand finally come into balance with a true clearing price.  Governments and central banks will be totally overwhelmed in their efforts at "showing" you how things are.  It will then become apparent to everyone how things REALLY ARE!

Please don't tell me this cannot happen because the process has already started.  The "process" meaning a LOSS OF CONTROL!  This is exactly what is happening.  The "control" used to fool the masses that everything is OK is being lost because everything is NOT OK!  The Ponzi scheme grew too large and can no longer be funded as liquidity has and is drying up.  The use of negative interest rates being the most obvious tell.

It is my opinion we will see huge resets where most financial assets collapse in purchasing power.  This will be a double whammy so to speak as currencies collapse versus everything from food to gold.  I would caution regarding stocks, particularly of companies that actually "make a product".  The coming hyperinflation may (will) take these stocks higher after the collapse.  We have seen this many times.  Stock markets collapse and get bid higher versus the collapsing currency.  This does not happen however when measured in gold.  This leads me to finish with the question "why not just own gold now as it will be the measuring stick"?  You see, gold will not "go up".  An ounce of gold will still be an ounce of gold.  The only thing that will change is the amount of gold necessary to "exchange" for a product.  What took an ounce prior to the "gap" (re-set) may only take 1/10th or even 1/100th afterwards!

I am sure there are those laughing at the above.  I would ask you this, what if oil producers (including the Saudis) took Iran's lead and did not accept dollars for oil?  (As a side note, didn't John Kerry just tell us the petrodollar would end if we did not sigh the Iran deal?  Maybe he had it backwards?)  Or what if China set a "price" for their currency in gold ...and followed with an audited announcement of how much gold they have accumulated in a "we have shown you ours, now you show us yours" fashion? 
What sort of "gap, holiday or reset" would this cause? 

Holter-Sinclair collaboration
Comments welcome!  bholter@hotmail.com

Bill HolterBill Holter writes and is partnered with Jim Sinclair at the newly formed Holter/Sinclair collaboration. Prior, he wrote for Miles Franklin from 2012-15. Bill worked as a retail stockbroker for 23 years, including 12 as a branch manager at A.G. Edwards. He left Wall Street in late 2006 to avoid potential liabilities related to management of paper assets. In retirement he and his family moved to Costa Rica where he lived until 2011 when he moved back to the United States. Bill was a well-known contributor to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) commentaries from 2007-present. You can reach Bill at: bholter@hotmail.com

 

The volume of all the gold ever mined can occupy a cube 63 feet on each side.

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