Chris Ciovacco

Chris Ciovacco Articles

As we noted recently, the Federal Reserve has explicitly mentioned tapering in their recent communications, and President Obama has commented numerous times on avoiding another round of asset bubbles. Today’s Fed minutes were non-committal...
The Federal Reserve knows the market examines every word from a governor’s mouth or included in a formal policy statement. Therefore, when the Fed starts making explicit references to ending asset purchases or removing policy accommodation...
Stock market bears have accumulated four feathers in their caps, which tells us to remain flexible and open to additional weakness in stocks:
In the 1990s, tech stocks were the place to be. After the dot-com bust, those who placed their money in bonds or shorted stocks did very well until October 2002. The winning asset class between late 2002 and October 2007 was stocks....
The Fed has taken extreme measures to kick start the economy. With fears of inflating another round of asset bubbles increasing, public statements from Fed governors in recent weeks have revolved around tapering their stimulative policies...
We continue to believe (a) tapering is about bubble management, and (b) the base case is for a September tapering announcement from the Fed. However, the Fed wants to leave the door open to the “what happens if they don’t taper in...
Bears Calling For Another Top -- Since the S&P500 bottomed on June 24, the calls on Twitter for an imminent peak have been frequent. At some point a true trend reversal will come, but thus far Monday’s and Tuesday’s weakness can be...
Wednesday’s trading session featured a 32 point zig zag affair intraday that resulted in almost no change vs. Tuesday’s session when the final 4 p.m. whistle sounded. Investors were greeted Thursday morning with big gains early in the day...
The purpose of Fed money printing is to help support economic growth and job creation. The negative side effects can be rising inflation or asset bubbles. Therefore, from a logical perspective, the Fed would be interested in tapering if: (...
One of the many tenets on Wall Street is that debt investors are often a step or two ahead of stock investors when it comes to identifying slowing economic growth. From a common sense perspective, it makes some sense. Debt investors tend...

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