Gold hits $3,850/oz by Q2 2026 in base case, but $5,355/oz under ‘Mar-A-Lago Accord’ - WisdomTree
NEW YORK (August 5) Gold still has five major macro drivers to push prices to fresh all-time highs, and if the Trump administration pursues an explicit policy of dollar depreciation, $5,355 by the end of June 2026 would be a conservative target, according to the latest Gold Outlook from WisdomTree.
The analysts noted that since setting its all-time high of $3,500 on April 22, gold has been range-bound between $3,180 and $3,400/oz. “The lower end aligns with the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level, and although our forecasts suggest a potential breach below this level in the short term, we anticipate strong support near the 61.8% level ($3,024/oz), paving the way for a rebound,” they said. “By Q2 2026, we project gold could reach $3,850/oz, based on consensus macroeconomic inputs. We see the current period as a “loading the spring” phase, setting the stage for a powerful upward movement in gold prices.”
WisdomTree lists five major macro risks to watch between now and Q2 2026, all of which are supportive of gold prices: Trade uncertainty; Debt trajectory; Institutional quality; Geopolitical risks; and Ambiguous dollar policy.
On the trade uncertainty front, the analysts note that while preliminary deals with China and the UK are in place, “negotiations with Canada, Mexico, and the EU27 remain ongoing,” and the preliminary deals “fall short of market expectations and introduce substantial tariff increases.”
“While the finalised tariffs are lower than initial headline figures, they still present a notable shift from the status quo,” they added. “Gold remains a hedge against adverse trade developments.”
The second macro risk that could boost gold prices is rising government debt, particularly in the United States.
“The newly passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act provides unfunded tax cuts projected to expand US deficits by $2.4 trillion between 2025 and 2034 (excluding debt-service effects),” they wrote. “Including interest payments, the cumulative deficit exceeds $3.0 trillion. Debt as a share of GDP is expected to rise from 117.1% in 2025 to 123.8% by 2034.”
The analysts noted that the U.S. is not the only country facing unsustainable increases in government debt. “Historically, rising government indebtedness has correlated with higher gold prices, particularly as concerns mount over debt sustainability and potential policy interventions,” they said.
The third risk is institutional, with WisdomTree pointing out that pressure on the Federal Reserve is intensifying.
“President Trump’s repeated criticisms of Chair Jerome Powell, whose term expires in May 2026, have heightened concerns over central bank independence,” they said. “With mounting debt-service obligations, there is a growing risk of political influence over monetary policy. A scenario reminiscent of the 1978–1979 G. William Miller era, marked by institutional weakening and high inflation, could unfold. During that time, gold posted historic gains. It took the might of Chairman Paul Volcker to reverse the damage to the Fed, but his bold efforts induced recessions. Yes – two recessions – a so-called double-dip (January – July 1980 and July 1981 – November 1982). Gold as a defensive asset does well in times of recession.”
Geopolitical risks are the fourth major area of concern, with the analysts noting that the international landscape remains tense.
“Iran has suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), following US and Israeli strikes,” they noted. “No diplomatic talks are currently scheduled (with a firm date), and US-Israeli coordination appears fragmented.”
And the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to fester. “Trump's failed attempt to broker a peace deal within 24 hours of taking office has backfired,” they said. “Deteriorating personal dynamics with both Putin and Zelenskyy reduce hope for a near-term resolution.”
The final macro risk that could drive the gold price to new highs is the Trump administration’s dollar policy, which WisdomTree characterizes as ambiguous.
“Although no official dollar-debasement policy exists, actions taken by the administration suggest a soft-dollar approach,” the analysts said. “We have commented on a hypothetical 'Mar-a-Lago Accord' [...], which we believe will shock the global economic system. While not our base case, such a policy would be significantly bullish for gold, especially if US debt credibility is questioned and bond yields become volatile.”
After detailing their gold price attribution formula, the analysts present different gold price scenarios based on WisdomTree's quantitative model, noting that “the consensus macro forecasts were taken before the 'trade truce' extension was offered.”
“Consensus forecasts suggest that inflation will remain persistently above the Federal Reserve’s target, largely due to the mechanical impact of elevated tariff levels on prices,” the analysts wrote. “Expectations for 10-year bond yields remain relatively stable, as the projected 75 basis points of policy rate cuts over the next year are offset by rising concerns about fiscal indebtedness. The US Dollar is expected to experience a modest depreciation, as strong near-term economic performance in the US limits the potential for widening interest rate differentials relative to other countries.”
“Under the consensus scenario, gold prices are anticipated to moderate over the next six months, before accelerating to a new all-time high in Q1 2026 and advancing further thereafter to reach US$3,850/oz,” they said.
The bull scenario assumes that the economic fallout from tariff shocks is severe, and the Federal Reserve is compelled to cut interest rates further to support a deteriorating labor market.
“Such rate cuts would amplify inflationary pressures—compounding the direct price effects of higher tariffs—and pave the way for a more pronounced depreciation of the US Dollar,” they said. “Heightened fears of economic damage could spur increased speculative positioning in gold futures, as investors seek a hedge against uncertainty.”
In the bull scenario, gold prices could experience a slight dip in the first quarter of 2026 before reaching a new high of $4,475 per ounce by the end of Q2.
“In a bear case scenario, where inflation collapses to the target (2.0%), bond yields rise to 6.0%, and the dollar appreciates, gold prices could fall to $2,700/oz,” the analysts warned. “But that will still be above the level we started at in 2025.”
WisdomTree concluded their forecast with what they call “a Mar-A-Lago Accord scenario,” which they first proposed in the previous quarterly gold forecast.
“In this scenario, the US pursues a policy objective to depreciate the US dollar,” they wrote. “While we don’t believe that there is an explicit policy objective in place, there are many things that have taken us by surprise in the current US Administration, and so modelling the outcomes could be a worthy task.”
The analysts pointed out that after the Plaza Accord, the value of the U.S. dollar fell by 48% between 1985 and 1987. “In the Mar-A-Lago Accord, we model a 23% depreciation over a one-year period,” they said. “Inflation would rise more than our bull case. We remove an explicit bond yield assumption for this scenario, as we believe yields could swing wildly in either direction. While the supposed intention of the policy move would be to reduce US debt funding costs (and hence, policy makers would like to see a decline in yields), refinancing debts would likely raise concerns about the US’s reliability and potentially drive bond yields higher.”
“As we saw in April 2025, a sharp rise in bond yields could be coupled with a sharp rise in gold price,” they noted. “Acknowledging these complications, we remove explicit assumptions on bond markets but assume gold will benefit from turbulence in the debt markets (as gold is a defensive alternative).”
In this extreme scenario, WisdomTree believes gold demand would strengthen substantially. “As this scenario is far out of sample, we expect our forecast of $5,355/oz would be on the conservative side.”
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