Gold rangebound as investors eye delayed US jobs data

LONDON (November 20) Gold (XAU/USD) trades slightly weaker on Thursday, holding within a choppy intraday range as investors stay on the sidelines ahead of the delayed September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due at 13:30 GMT. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading near $4,057, down roughly 0.45%.

The mood across markets has brightened after Nvidia delivered strong earnings, sparking a rebound in global equities and easing safe-haven flows into Gold. On top of that, a stronger US Dollar (USD) as investors scale back expectations of a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) is adding pressure and limiting the metal’s upside.

Markets saw a sharp repricing in rate expectations after the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed that the October Employment Situation Report will be released together with the November data. In addition, the hawkish-leaning  Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes published on Wednesday reinforced expectations that the Fed may leave interest rates unchanged in December.

Market movers: US Dollar firm ahead of delayed US jobs data

• The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 100.18, hovering near its highest levels since August and revisiting the territory last seen on November 5.
• The October FOMC Minutes tilted hawkish, with several policymakers observing that inflation had moved up since earlier in the year and remained above the 2% goal, while progress toward disinflation had stalled. Many participants judged that further rate cuts were not necessarily appropriate at the December meeting. The Minutes also noted that although most participants favored October’s 25 bps cut, some of them said they could have supported leaving rates unchanged.
• The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirmed on Wednesday that the October payrolls report has been postponed after the government shutdown prevented officials from collecting key data, including inputs needed to calculate the unemployment rate. The missing October figures will now be released together with the November jobs report on December 16, reducing the data available to the Fed ahead of its December 9-10 FOMC meeting.
• According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are assigning a 31.8% probability of a December rate cut, down from about 50% a week ago. Attention now turns to the delayed September NFP report, which could shift expectations again. Economists forecast payrolls to rise by roughly 50K, compared with the 22K increase recorded in August.
• Along with the September NFP, the US economic calendar will also feature Average Hourly Earnings, Average Weekly Hours, Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims, the Labour Force Participation Rate, the Unemployment Rate, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey.

FXStreet