Gold recovers as global interest-rate expectations fall
LONDON (June 5) Gold (XAU/USD) is trading in a mini-range inside the $2,330s and is showing a daily gain of around a quarter of a percent on Wednesday. A string of poor economic data releases from the US have increased bets the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates before the end of the year, and at a global level inflation is falling and several central banks are preparing to cut interest rates as well. This lowers the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding Gold, making it overall more attractive to investors.
Gold edges higher as rate cuts loom
Gold drifts higher on Wednesday as more incoming macroeconomic data indicates the global economy is cooling and interest rates might be set to fall.
Eurozone factory-gate prices fell by 1.0% in April month-over-month, Producer Price Index (PPI) data from Eurostat showed on Wednesday. The result was lower than the 0.5% decline expected by economists and the revised 0.5% fall in the previous month. Although lower energy prices were responsible for the decline, other core costs also cooled, such as non-durables, which slowed to 0.1% from 0.6% previously.
Inflation data has been generally undershooting globally. Friday’s US core PCE data missed expectations and Swiss inflation similarly missed the mark on Tuesday, after coming out at 0.3% month-over-month in May when economists had estimated a 0.4% rise.
In Australia, first quarter GDP growth data out on Wednesday undershot estimates of 0.2% MoM and 1.2% YoY, coming out at 0.1% and 1.1% respectively instead.
US JOLTS Job openings data out Tuesday showed a sharp fall below estimates, coming out at 8.059 million when 8.340 million had been expected, and was well below the 8.355 million in March. The data suggested the US labor market is “further normalizing,” according to Thomas Ryan, North America Economist at Capital Economics.
Several central banks are tipped to lower interest rates in June, including the European Central Bank (ECB) – which holds its meeting on Thursday –, the Bank of Canada (BoC) – which holds its meeting today (Wednesday) – and the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which will meet later in June. The trend supports Gold.
Gold short-term bearish but fundamentals solid – TD Securities
Despite a firm fundamental backdrop supporting Gold, Ryan McKay, Senior Commodity Strategist at TD Securities is bearish in the short-term.
“Trend signals in Gold are no longer unilaterally pointing to the upside, and in fact, CTAs have become modest sellers in the yellow metal amid the recent correction in prices. However, this deterioration in short-term trend signals is expected to remain contained with a large margin of safety still remaining before the next selling trigger at the $2,209/oz mark,” says McKay.
The negative short-term bias is balanced, however, by solid Asian demand for the purposes of currency hedging, especially against the US Dollar.
“We see Gold on a solid footing as our tracking of trading activity in Chinese Gold ETFs suggest inflows have resumed at the fastest pace since the epic buying activity that hit the tapes in April,” says McKay. “Precious metals have increasingly morphed into a currency depreciation hedge, with resumed pressures in Asia pointing to nascent signs of notable buying activity,” he adds.
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