first majestic silver

Gold rises to all-time high on safe-haven demand, shifting Fed expectations

May 20, 2024

LONDON (May 20) Gold prices (XAU/USD) have rallied to record highs in the $2,440s on Monday due to its safe-haven qualities as the geopolitical risk barometer rises a notch due to increased tensions in the Middle East. 

The precious metal also gains from rising expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will move to cut interest rates earlier than was previously thought following tepid US economic data out last week. 

Gold price rises on geopolitics, Fed expectations

Gold price rises to a new all-time high after the news that the President of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, as well as other high-profile political figures from Iran, died in a helicopter crash in the North of the country over the weekend, according to Reuters. This increased uncertainty in a region already simmering with tensions from the Israel-Hammas conflict. 

Russia’s opening up of a second front in the Kharkiv region and the bonding on display between Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi during Putin’s recent visit to Beijing are further adding to a picture of a fracturing world order, with serious implications for world peace and free trade. All of which is supportive of Gold. 

Gold demand from BRICS countries and emerging economy central banks has increased substantially over recent years as a hedge against the threat of Western sanctions, according to the IMF. The trend is only likely to continue in light of recent events on the world stage. 

US Federal Reserve more likely to cut interest rates

Gold is also seeing demand as a result of a general lowering of expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain interest rates at their current relatively high level for much longer. 

Increasing expectations that interest rates will fall is positive for Gold as it lowers the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset vis-a-vis cash or bonds. 

The change in outlook comes on the back of cooler inflation and retail sales data for April released last week. Although members of the Federal Reserve have been evasive about when the Fed might actually move to cut interest rates, the market sees a 65% chance that the fed fund rates will be lower than the current level in September, based on the CME FedWatch tool, which tracks the price of interest-rate futures. 

Speeches from a roll-call of Fed speakers on Monday could further clarify the stance of many rate-setters at the Washington institution. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Fed Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson will all be delivering speeches during the American session.


Gold Eagle twitter                Like Gold Eagle on Facebook