Gold Price Forecast: Collapsing Sentiment Supports an Impending Low

The Fed struck a moderately hawkish tone, emphasizing uncertainty, which is likely to limit the odds of rate cuts in 2026.

The recent breakdown in precious metals and mining stocks feels like the final washout heading into an intermediate low.

Over the medium term, I expect precious metals to find a bottom between now and month-end, before reaching new highs in Q2, with gold miners potentially bottoming any day.

Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index

At 3.7%, the gold miners’ bullish percent index is incredibly oversold. This implies that sentiment is near rock bottom and prices could be approaching a significant bottom.

Bullish Percent Prior Lows

Over the past decade, the gold miners’ bullish percent index has fallen below 10% only four times, with the most recent occurrence happening now. While a low number doesn’t guarantee a bottom in GDX, it is often a good time to accumulate or add to positions.

GOLD: Gold closed progressively below the 50-day EMA, registering a proper intermediate-degree correction. This feels like the final washout before prices turn higher in April. A sustained breakdown below the October $4,381 high would indicate a deeper correction is underway. Otherwise, I expect a bottom to form between now and the end of March, followed by a resumption of the uptrend.

SILVER: Silver is testing key support, and I’d like to see prices bottom in the coming days and turn higher into April. I’ll be watching for the next swing low as a potential signal that a bottom is in place. Support at the 200-day MA if prices slip below the February low.

PLATINUM: Platinum closed just below the $1,980 support level, but I get the impression prices will find a bottom between now and the end of the month. The next level of support intersects the 200-day MA and October highs near $1,750.

GDX: With a bullish percent reading of 3.70% and an oversold MFI, gold miners could be nearing a significant bottom. Look for support between the trendline and the rising 200-day moving average. Those looking to add to mining holdings may want to consider scaling into positions while reserving some capital in case prices fail to hold the 200-day.

GDXJ: Juniors are oversold according to the MFI, and I think prices will find a bottom between current levels and the 200-day MA by month-end. A sustained breakdown below the 200-day MA lasting more than a week would suggest a deeper correction phase is unfolding.

SILJ: Silver juniors are correcting in a classic ABC pattern that may be nearing a low. Ideal support lies between current levels and the 200-day MA. It would take a sustained breakdown below the 200-day MA lasting more than a week to signal a more destructive decline.

BITCOIN: Bitcoin reached overbought levels on the MFI and formed a swing high after briefly spiking above the 50-day EMA. Downside follow-through below the trendline near $66,000 would signal the end of this consolidation and the start of the next decline.

In Closing

The conflict in Iran adds a layer of complexity, but the broader outlook for metals and mining stocks remains constructive, with both still on track for potential new highs in the second quarter. Recent weakness appears tied more to shifting rate expectations and a stronger dollar than to a breakdown in the underlying trend.

Gold miners, in particular, are now offering a meaningful pullback—something we didn’t see last year—creating a more favorable opportunity to add to positions.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.

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