Gold struggles for direction amid new tariff headlines

LONDON (July 8) Gold (XAU/USD) remains in a well-defined range between $3,320 and $3,350 at the time of writing on Tuesday, amid a looming tariff deadline and potential trade deals.

US President Donald Trump’s consistent tariff threats have temporarily muted demand for the yellow metal while supporting the demand for the Greenback. The president has announced new tariffs on countries, with Japan at 25% and South Korea at 30% standing out. He has also given a new deadline, August 1, instead of July 9.

The yellow metal is down 0.43% intraday, and the lack of conviction reflects ongoing indecision amid conflicting macro forces and stable US Treasury yields.

The recent price action has been defined by a series of lower highs and higher lows, compressing into a classic triangle structure on the daily chart. This pattern typically precedes a sharp directional move, but the breakout trigger remains elusive.

While safe-haven demand offers some underlying support, stronger-than-expected US labor market data and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations have capped any upside extension for Gold.

Gold daily digest market movers: XAU/USD remains alert ahead of FOMC Minutes

• The Federal Open Market Committee will release the Minutes from its last meeting on Wednesday. This report outlines the reasons for maintaining interest rates at the current range of 4.25% to 4.50% in June.  
• German Industrial Production data, released on Monday, showed a 1.2% monthly increase in May. Upbeat economic data has helped drive recession fears lower, adding pressure on the yellow metal.
• The BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro ended on Monday. The emerging market nations that established the bloc are beginning to reduce their reliance on the United States. This initiative includes moving away from using the US Dollar as a receiving currency, a concept known as de-dollarization.
• Trump wrote a post on Truth Social also on Monday stating that “Any country aligning themselves with the Anti‑American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10 % tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy.”

Gold trades sideways near $3,320 as triangle breakout looms

From a technical standpoint, Gold is holding above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,321, with the 20-day SMA acting as minor resistance at $3,350. 

The current structure suggests a neutral bias. However, a sustained break below $3,292, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the April rally, would increase downside risk.

If Gold breaks below this level, it could trigger a downside move, signaling a bearish breakout from the symmetrical triangle. 

FXStreet