Gold (XAUUSD): Bulls Target $4133.95–$4192.36 Retracement Zone After Breakout
LONDON (November 10) Gold pushed higher on Monday, rising for a third straight session after clearing the October 31 swing top at $4046.60. The rally comes as weak U.S. economic data and progress toward ending the government shutdown fueled expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month.
Softer Dollar and Shutdown Optimism Underpin Gold Strength
The U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.1% to 99.643 as investors reacted to signs that the 40-day government shutdown could be nearing its end. The Senate advanced a deal Sunday night that would fund the government through January, boosting expectations that political gridlock may soon ease.
A weaker dollar helped gold attract bids from overseas buyers, while ongoing concerns about economic fallout from the shutdown added to safe-haven demand. Traders also remain cautious about headline risk tied to fiscal policy debates heading into year-end.
Consumer Sentiment Slumps to Multi-Year Low
Friday’s University of Michigan survey showed consumer sentiment falling to its lowest level in nearly three-and-a-half years, highlighting rising anxiety among households over the prolonged shutdown. While hard data releases remain limited, this sharp drop in sentiment adds to the narrative of softening demand and policy pressure.
White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett warned over the weekend that fourth-quarter growth could turn negative if the shutdown continues, reinforcing fears of a broader slowdown.
Rate Cut Odds Climb as Traders Price in Policy Shift
Market pricing reflected a 65% probability of a Fed rate cut at the December 10 meeting, as tracked by CME Group’s FedWatch tool. That number has steadily risen over the past week as uncertainty grows around the economic outlook.
Gold, which pays no interest, tends to benefit from falling rates and economic stress — both of which are becoming more prominent in the current environment. Bond markets remained closed on Monday for the Veterans Day holiday, limiting signals from Treasurys.
Gold Price Forecast: Breakout Holds, Eyes Turn to $4192.36 Zone
Daily Gold (XAU/USD)
With gold sustaining a breakout above $4046.60, the next key test for bulls lies in the $4133.95–$4192.36 retracement zone. Whether speculators chase the rally or fade it on a pullback remains to be seen.
On the downside, the 50-day moving average at $3890.52 is providing key trend support. The short-term outlook leans bullish while prices hold above this level and sentiment stays focused on a potential policy pivot by the Fed.
For now, gold remains well-supported by both technical factors and continued pressure on the U.S. dollar from weakening economic sentiment.
FXEmpire
